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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 281957Z - 282130Z
ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY LOCALIZED. A WW IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
WELL AHEAD OF MAIN UPSTREAM TROUGH...NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST...MID-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS OCCURRING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS HEATED
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR OFF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. STRENGTHENING
CAP SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INHIBITIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MOST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ADVECTS INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS THROUGH THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE AND PECOS VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING/OROGRAPHY COULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST
SOUTHWEST OF FORT STOCKTON...POSSIBLY WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS
RISK WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD
AHEAD OF SUBTROPICAL STREAM IMPULSE NOW RAPIDLY APPROACHING REGION.
CAPE IS ONLY EXPECTED AROUND 500 J/KG OR SO BY PEAK HEATING...BUT
VEERING WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER
FLOW STILL SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL.
..KERR.. 03/28/2006
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...EPZ...
30750527 31500522 31850449 31630346 31240286 30580207
30280107 29720067 28760053