Major tornado outbreak next Thursday?

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CrazyC83
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#81 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Apr 04, 2006 10:11 pm

cheezywxman wrote:hey crazy, what do you think Dallas has in terms of severe weather in general


I'd say slight risk. If the cells fire up early enough on Thursday (like in the morning hours), it may be a factor in Dallas, but otherwise, it will all be farther to the east and northeast.
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#82 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Apr 04, 2006 10:14 pm

gosh! when is Dallas ever gonna get another severe outbreak!?! Im really bored with this! Whats been going on the past 2 years?
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#83 Postby senorpepr » Tue Apr 04, 2006 10:16 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The SPC never issues a High Risk for Day 3. While confidence is high that there will be a major outbreak, pinpointing it is difficult. I've got moderate to significant risk (Levels 2-3) for an enormous area, but no high or extreme risks yet.


Yup. As I said earlier... they CANNOT issue high risk for day 3 and while they can technically issue a moderate risk for day 3, the forecaster is normally slapped around and is forced to downgrade to slight.
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#84 Postby Beam » Tue Apr 04, 2006 10:38 pm

Not slapped around literally, I hope. That'd have to be an occupational hazard, especially with a year like this. 8-)
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#85 Postby senorpepr » Tue Apr 04, 2006 10:52 pm

Beam wrote:Not slapped around literally, I hope. That'd have to be an occupational hazard, especially with a year like this. 8-)


You would be surprised... :wink:
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#86 Postby Beam » Tue Apr 04, 2006 11:02 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Beam wrote:Not slapped around literally, I hope. That'd have to be an occupational hazard, especially with a year like this. 8-)


You would be surprised... :wink:


Once tornado season is over we should get together and have a telethon to pay for the Storm Prediction Center's medical bills. :lol:
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#87 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Apr 04, 2006 11:04 pm

Jeff Masters at wunderground said it right: The last time we had two major tornado outbreaks killing 12 or more people was in 1998. With the peak of tornado season still a month away, we have the potential for the nastiest tornado season seen in a long time--to go along with what could also be a very long and deadly hurricane season.
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#88 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Apr 04, 2006 11:40 pm

IF I had to rate this thursday on a scale from 1 to 10....1 being the lowest with 10 being another 1974 super outbreak. I would say 7 right now.

47 confirmed tornadoes already for the 2nd of April 6 more intill we tie March 12th.
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#89 Postby NWIASpotter » Wed Apr 05, 2006 12:44 am

I'm going to throw this in here, I made this Chase Forecast for some of the other boards, but I figured some of you here might enjoy it. Tell me if you don't, haha.. But anyway here is my elongated chase forecast for Thursday:

NAM 00z model run: Low pressure system shown at 984 mb in southcentral Nebraska by 1 pm on Thursday, low moves pretty much nowhere as it becomes vertically stacked in the evening hours; still manages to fall to 982 mb by 7 pm. Starting at the surface, Td's are shown in the mid 50s Thursday morning and then quickly rise up into the lower 60s by afternoon hours, even some mid 60s in northern Missouri. LCL levels with that aren't terrible in western Iowa, but eastern NE is a little worse off. Either way LCL levels look to be anywhere from 500m to 1000m. Surface winds should back somewhat, but with the low not moving it isn't too impressive. Rising up, we show very good vorticity advection at 500 in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa for the most part. 0-3 km SRH in western Iowa should be anywhere from 200-300 m2/s2 which is pretty good. Using a finer grid with the NAM does show better SRH and cape values, which should be considered. SRH with that grid are shown to be above 300 in areas of western Iowa; cape values on the normal NAM grid are shown at >3000 j/kg in western Iowa and northwestern MO, the finer grid actually shows much the same. The cap! Looks to hold good through noon, with it finally breaking sometime around 3 pm most likely in eastern Nebraska... Earlier talk had storm motion very rapid, but looking at Bunkers formula for storm motion, its' shown at 30-40 kts which isn't too bad at all... So, looking at the NAM you would be looking at an eastern Nebraska target sometime around 3 pm.


GFS's 00z run: Surface low expected across central Nebraska at noon, but then shows it further east just north of Lincoln, NE for the rest of the afternoon. The pressure with the low also isnt' as strong, only shown at 986.. Despite this GFS is actually better with breaking out precip along the dryline, unlike the NAM. GFS is also very good in the vorticity advection coming in with the jet streak as is the NAM. Good Td's shown with the GFS as well, with low 60s throughout the warm sector just ahead of the dryline. Other severe weather parameters that are calculated won't be in until 2 am or 3 am so i won't have those in this forecast. But, looking at all of this information chase target would likely be further east along the NE/IA borders or just into NE and target would be around that 3 pm timeframe as well.


As I update I might not get them on here, but I will get them up on my website.
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#90 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Apr 05, 2006 1:33 am

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 AM CDT WED APR 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM NEBRASKA/AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST ON THURSDAY...

...SYNOPSIS...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND OH VALLEY AREAS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT THE NEXT ROUND OF SPRINGTIME
SEVERE WEATHER WAS CROSSING THE WEST COAST IN THE FORM OF A COMPLEX
DOUBLE-VORTEX UPPER TROUGH EARLY TODAY. STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WAS
OBVIOUS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WERE
INDICATING PRONOUNCED DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROMOTING
CONVECTION FROM CA TO ID. UPSTREAM FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH...
ANOTHER POTENT IMPULSE WAS DEPICTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK. DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW
REGIME...CONSIDERABLE JET ENERGY WITH THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL
DISLODGE THE WEST COAST TROUGH INLAND AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
DAY 1. A BELT OF 80-90KT MID LEVEL FLOW OF WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSE OUT ATOP THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH 36 HOURS...BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL INDUCE LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS WY/MT TONIGHT AND THEN THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL REFORM
EWD ACROSS NEB THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST AN OVERALL SCENARIO STRONGER AND SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE CYCLONE THAN MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. WHILE THIS
SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE TREND...ALL THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES TO AFFECT SEVERE WEATHER EVOLUTION FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
MIDWEST ON THURSDAY.

...NEB/IA...
THERE MAY BE AN ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION UNDERWAY EARLY IN THE DAY
FROM NEAR/NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...EWD AND SEWD ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT...FROM NEB/SD...ACROSS IA...AND PERHAPS OVER IL. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED BY INTENSIFYING LARGE SCALE
ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING ON THE EDGE OF EXTENSIVE PLAINS CAPPING
INVERSION. WHILE ELEVATED IN NATURE...SOME OF THESE STORMS STILL
PRODUCE HAIL. STRONG CAP ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL AID IN
EFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD ACROSS KS/MO/ERN NEB AND
IA WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THAT AT LEAST
LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS SURROUNDING THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE OVER NEB
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS ERN
NEB AND MUCH OF IA...AND DRYLINE SHARPENS FROM NEB SWD ACROSS KS/OK.


STRONG ASCENT BENEATH THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET...AND NEAR
SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL EFFECTIVELY OVERCOME THE CAP ACROSS
NEB/IA THROUGH AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 8
C/KM ATOP MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE IN THE
RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AREAS WHERE
MOISTURE/HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED. ROBUST SURFACE-BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD COMMENCE AS CAP IS BREACHED ACROSS NEB AND INTO
IA FROM AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND TORNADOES APPEAR
LIKELY. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN
INTO THE AREA...AND SPECIFIC LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW....WARM
FRONT...AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ERN
NEB...ACROSS THE MO RIVER INTO WRN IA APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT
CONDITIONS FOR STRONG TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP IN THIS AREA THROUGH
THE THURSDAY EVENING.

...ERN KS/OK...MO...AR...
CLASSIC DRYLINE SURGE WILL DEVELOP EAST FROM KS/OK INTO MO/AR FROM
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. STRONG CAPPING ACROSS LOW LEVEL MOIST
AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND MIXING ON THE ADVANCING
DRYLINE PROMOTE STORM INITIATION IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. ALREADY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS 80KT MID LEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS THE
DRYLINE AND LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES TO 50KT ACROSS THE OZARKS. A
SECONDARY AREA OF POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK AND FAST MOVING TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS....COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING.

PARTS OF BOTH NEB/IA AND THE ERN KS/OK AND WRN MO/AR AREAS MAY BE
UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
NEXT DAY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS WEATHER IN THESE AREAS.

....EAST FROM THE MS RIVER TO IL/IND/OH...
WHILE THE PRIMARY CYCLONE UNDERGOES OCCLUSION OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD...INTENSE MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST A FRONTAL WAVE...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED....MAY
DEVELOP RAPIDLY EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT...FROM ERN IA/MO TO IND
THROUGH LATE EVENING. DESPITE WEAKENING INSTABILITY WITH EWD
EXTENT...A PLUME OF STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY STREAM INTO THESE AREAS
FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY
SOME LATE NIGHT TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY AN MCS OR TWO EVOLVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS CONVECTION AND SUPPORTED/MAINTAINED BY LARGER SCALE
DYNAMICS.

..CARBIN.. 04/05/2006
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#91 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Apr 05, 2006 6:51 am

Image
^^Thursday^^

Image
^^Friday^^


Looks like another major outbreak is likely. Also, if you connect the dots between the two images...Houston may be able to get some severe weather too! :D
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#92 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Wed Apr 05, 2006 7:32 am

WOW, looks that this is shaping up to be as big as a couple daysz ago or mayber even worse. I hope we see a good storm show on radar and then on the otherhand I hope it doesen't happen.
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#93 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Apr 05, 2006 7:40 am

yay! Im almost to a mod. risk! I may finally get my thunderstorms...and Im in the hatched area and 30 % on this map below...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
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#94 Postby tidesong » Wed Apr 05, 2006 8:43 am

Aw, man! They took us out of the slight area. Pfft!
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#95 Postby WaitingForSiren » Wed Apr 05, 2006 8:59 am

Beam wrote:
wxman22 wrote:Heres my forcast:

DISCLAMER:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.




Image


Image


Not trying to put you down or anything, but don't you think it's a tad early to try and firmly position a high risk area? Also, even in the most serious, major tornado outbreaks, Only a small percentage of the funnels reach F2 or greater strength. To say that anyone has a 45, or even a 15 percent of being affected by such a monstrous tornado, especially over such a vast geographical area, pretty much boils down to one of two things: -removed-, or lack of education on the matter. Or even both.

Again, I'm not trying to slam you, and I'm not trying to underestimate this system, but if you're looking for any credibility, posting a tornado risk map for Day 3 with such high probabilistics is a quick way to blow it, and saying that those probs are for an F2 or greater tornado is an even quicker way. Just a word to the wise.


wow...yeah when I saw that 45% area I thought it was for severe weather overall, not tornado probabilities. And then to say theyre for f2 or GREATER probs, thats just RIDICULOUS! Try being a little more realistic in the future.
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#96 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Apr 05, 2006 10:13 am

If 45% for a major tornado was realistic, this would be the biggest tornado outbreak in world history, making the Super Outbreak look like a bunch of isolated tornadoes...
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#97 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Apr 05, 2006 10:43 am

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction.

If you thought Sunday was bad, you're in for a shocker. I am currently predicting one of the worst tornado outbreaks in 30 years. The Level 5 alert for Day 2 is an extremely rare event, and I have enough confidence that I am going ahead with it. The area affected is slightly to the east of the SPC prediction as well, thinking this will last well into the nighttime hours.

If you aren't prepared and don't know your tornado drills, today is the day to invest in a weather radio and get caught up on your family preparations.

Image

Friday is a more difficult forecast. The big question is whether this is going to move east (per general motion) or southeast (per SPC). My prediction is more east than southeast, which puts the Ohio Valley down into the Tennessee Valley into the crosshairs. The Gulf Coast risk is reduced somewhat (I don't have the 15% going that far).

Image

And yes, the severe weather could continue into Saturday in the Southeast, but that is too far out to have significant confidence.
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#98 Postby wxman22 » Wed Apr 05, 2006 11:20 am

WaitingForSiren wrote:
Beam wrote:
wxman22 wrote:Heres my forcast:

DISCLAMER:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.




Image


Image


Not trying to put you down or anything, but don't you think it's a tad early to try and firmly position a high risk area? Also, even in the most serious, major tornado outbreaks, Only a small percentage of the funnels reach F2 or greater strength. To say that anyone has a 45, or even a 15 percent of being affected by such a monstrous tornado, especially over such a vast geographical area, pretty much boils down to one of two things: -removed-, or lack of education on the matter. Or even both.

Again, I'm not trying to slam you, and I'm not trying to underestimate this system, but if you're looking for any credibility, posting a tornado risk map for Day 3 with such high probabilistics is a quick way to blow it, and saying that those probs are for an F2 or greater tornado is an even quicker way. Just a word to the wise.


wow...yeah when I saw that 45% area I thought it was for severe weather overall, not tornado probabilities. And then to say theyre for f2 or GREATER probs, thats just RIDICULOUS! Try being a little more realistic in the future.


Maybe I shuold have added this to it when I said 45% I meant a 45% chance of getting a F2+ tornado 50miles of any given point, not exactly 45%.
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#99 Postby WaitingForSiren » Wed Apr 05, 2006 11:29 am

Crazy, I think your map for tomorrow is actually pretty good overall. Usuaully i think they are a little too big and vague, but I think tomorrow could be a widespread devastating outbreak.
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#100 Postby NWIASpotter » Wed Apr 05, 2006 11:54 am

I've noticed this on several boards now, but everybody is a little to anxious. With the events lately and the way things look like they might come together everybody is just screaming outbreak. I think everybody needs to take a couple deep breaths and look through everything a little more carefully, look at positives/negatives of what could happen and then make a forecast.

I'm not going to say that a major outbreak won't happen, becuase in reality it is looking quite ominous for areas. But, I'm not going to go out waving red flags all over the place issuing high risks and huge high risks and the 'super-duper mother of all high risks' already on day 2. This setup is far from perfect and everybody should notice that, what happens if not enough moisture gets up to the NE/IA? LCL's are up near 1500 or higher, tornado risk goes way down then! You can start watching things like moisture return already and see how that is coming, you can how the models are doing with the track/formation of the low. I know that this may be a potentially huge event, but you have to look at if from a forecaster perspective when you are making a forecast... You can't look at is as a chaser who wants the big one or a severe weather enthusiast who can't believes what has happened lately. All I ask if for everybody screaming so loud already about the super outbreak to just take a step back, relax and then look over everything and see the potential flaws that may not make an outbreak... Just a simple thought...
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