U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or
STORM2K.
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1181 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:48 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 AM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA/WRN SC
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 171...
VALID 080745Z - 080845Z
STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW...THOUGH MOST VIGOROUS STORMS
WILL MOVE SEWD INTO WW 172. WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
09Z.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGEST CONVECTION -- NOW OVER FAR SERN
PORTIONS OF WW -- MOVING SEWD INTO WW 172. MEANWHILE...STORMS
FURTHER N INTO NRN GA HAVE SHOWN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME.
THIS SEEMS TO CONFIRM LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...WHICH INDICATE
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT BEST OVER NRN GA. WITH EVEN LESS
UNSTABLE AIRMASS INDICATED INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS...EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EWD. THEREFORE...NEW WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
..GOSS.. 04/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...
34238460 34958375 35228230 34248298 33998406
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1182 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:49 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 172...
VALID 081142Z - 081315Z
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF WW WHILE WEAKENING WITH TIME. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS -- ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SEWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL GA ATTM. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
INDICATE LIMITED INSTABILITY S OF ONGOING STORMS. THOUGH A LIMITED
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- MAY
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OVERALL CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOULD
REMAIN DOWNWARD.
..GOSS.. 04/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...BMX...
32428525 32898399 33478256 32468258 32118523
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1183 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:49 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 081230Z - 081430Z
SEVERE THREAT -- CURRENTLY LIMITED TO ELEVATED HAIL -- SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES.
NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ATTM...ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED PER 12Z GSO /GREENSBORO NC/ RAOB...AND THUS WOULD
EXPECT ANY SHORT-TERM SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF
MARGINAL HAIL.
AS DAYTIME HEATING INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT
BOUNDARY LAYER TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE. WITH SHEAR QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS -- AIDED BY 80-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET...ANY
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. THOUGH EWD EXTENT OF THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN DRY/STABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AS
REVEALED BY MORNING MHX /MOREHEAD CITY NC/...A CORRIDOR OF
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC
INTO SERN VA.
..GOSS.. 04/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...
37227835 37867661 36977612 35677683 34447844 34377996
35937930
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1184 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:50 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0837 AM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE THROUGH SRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 081337Z - 081530Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SRN AL...SRN GA AND INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.
EARLY THIS MORNING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE
CAROLINAS SWWD THROUGH CNTRL GA AND FARTHER SWWD THROUGH SRN AL. THE
WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MOIST WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG AND FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS HEATING COMMENCES. STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A WSWLY 40
KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST IN THIS REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF HEIGHT
FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM A SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
..DIAL.. 04/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
31288694 32178536 32458282 31778238 30678317 29828496
30508607 30388752
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1185 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 3:51 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA THROUGH PORTIONS OF NRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 081600Z - 081800Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH SERN GA
AND PORTIONS OF NRN FL BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
LATE THIS MORNING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN SC
SWWD THROUGH S CNTRL GA AND FARTHER SW INTO SERN AL. THIS BOUNDARY
IS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS SERN
GA AND NRN FL. STRONG SURFACE HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROMOTE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE MORNING
RAOB DATA FROM JACKSONVILLE SHOWED PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...AND THIS MAY TEND TO INHIBIT DEEP ROBUST CONVECTION A
WHILE LONGER. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPER LAYER ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD SEWD. THIS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL JET ON SERN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SEWD ABOVE THE WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
..DIAL.. 04/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...
30128159 29978282 32168297 32398130 31228147
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1186 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 3:51 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 081738Z - 081945Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
COASTAL NC THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH BOWS. AREA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR
ELIZABETH CITY SWWD THROUGH ERN SC. A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXISTS W OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN NC FROM NEAR ROCKY MOUNT SWWD
TO JUST E OF FLORENCE IN ERN SC. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE BOUNDARIES IS DESTABILIZING WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY TO
PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR INITIATION
APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR COASTAL NC WHERE
CONVERGENCE COULD BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS.
..DIAL.. 04/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
34327765 34027828 33997867 34277870 34807814 35597741
36307672 36287594 35477584
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1187 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 3:52 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE THROUGH
SWRN GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 173...
VALID 081900Z - 082100Z
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL
CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
THIS AFTERNOON A SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS SRN GA
INTO SERN AL. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS IN WARM SECTOR S OF THIS
BOUNDARY...AND STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST HOUR AS
DESTABILIZATION INCREASES. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45 KT.
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS OVER SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE
WHERE THE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS BACKED TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
LINE SEGMENTS WITH BOW ECHOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..DIAL.. 04/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
30098346 29538669 30968661 31608520 31548322
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1188 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 3:53 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA EXTREME ERN SC THROUGH NRN FL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 174...
VALID 082022Z - 082215Z
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
PERSIST ACROSS SRN GA INTO NRN FL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE THREAT
ACROSS ERN SC WILL END WITHIN ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AS THE STORMS MOVE
OFFSHORE.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD ADVANCING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN GA INTO NRN FL NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
LATEST RUC FORECASTS A 40 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING OVER NRN FL AND EXTREME SRN GA WITHIN A ZONE OF
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VWP
DATA ACROSS EXTREME SRN GA CONTINUE TO SHOW 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY AROUND 180 M2/S2 FOR ENEWD MOVING STORMS AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH BOW ECHOES REMAIN LIKELY WITHIN
THIS ENVIRONMENT.
..DIAL.. 04/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...JAX...TAE...
33227871 32278001 30988138 29768126 29578327 31248308
32328148 33847909
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1189 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 9:46 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 PM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NC AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 175...
VALID 082134Z - 082300Z
THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE ERN NC OUTER BANKS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WW
175.
STORMS OVER ERN NC HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A LINEAR CLUSTER FROM
AROUND NCA TO FFA. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
OUTER BANKS AND OFFSHORE. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 70KT PER MHX
VAD PROFILER MAY STILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZATION WILL DIMINISH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FURTHER
SOUTH...ADDITIONAL DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
SHEAR...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
..GRAMS.. 04/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...
33977796 34487760 35177699 35737619 36047577 36097536
35627511 35247523 35017546 34347654 34027733 33467798
33437840 336778539
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1190 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 9:46 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL INTO N CNTRL FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 174...176...
VALID 082259Z - 090030Z
CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW. ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY
DEVELOP INTO NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA AREAS SOUTH OF WW 174 SHORTLY.
HOWEVER...RISK MAY REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR
AN ADDITIONAL WW...AS BELT OF STRONGER FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AWAY
FROM SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
TONGUE OF 70F+ DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER MOIST RETURN FLOW
IS READILY EVIDENT IN SURFACE DATA ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS EXTENDS THROUGH AREAS NEAR/EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND INTO SOUTHWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SOUTHERN
BRANCH TROUGH CONTINUES TO AID VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
OUTFLOW...AND IN WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL ADVANCE ACROSS JACKSONVILLE AND THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN NOW AND 00-01Z...WITH SEVERE THREAT
DIMINISHING TO THE NORTH OF BOUNDARY. GUSTY WINDS/LARGE HAIL MAY
CONTINUE IN STRONGER CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...AND IN NEW
DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ALONG EASTERN GULF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT
ZONE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO COASTAL AREAS FROM NEAR CEDAR
KEY THROUGH THE TAMPA AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..KERR.. 04/08/2006
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
29428446 29858439 30848355 31108253 31168182 31188136
30848074 30138092 29568151 29048189 28618237 28168339
28318395 28778409 29118403
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1191 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:00 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0930 AM CDT SUN APR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 091430Z - 091630Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF S FL WITHIN
THE NEXT TWO HOURS.
LATE THIS MORNING A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS S
CNTRL FL FROM S OF VERO BEACH SWWD TO NEAR FORT MYERS. RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS IN THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. THE 12Z RAOB FROM MIAMI SHOWS STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS ANVIL
CIRRUS DISSIPATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED. THE
WEAK CAP...DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING...PRESENCE OF SUBTLE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. AMBIENT LOW LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH 2 KM IS QUITE WEAK AND KINEMATIC PROFILES THROUGH A DEEPER
LAYER ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE
STRONGER STORMS.
..DIAL.. 04/09/2006
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...
25938015 25338048 25258092 26278145 26828111 27108030
26848006
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1192 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:01 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SUN APR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177...
VALID 091943Z - 092145Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN FL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
REMAIN A THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
BOUNDARIES...SEVERAL OF WHICH APPEAR TO BE ENHANCED BY SEABREEZE
CIRCULATIONS...PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA. ONE SUCH
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR SARASOTA SEWD TO N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
OTHER BOUNDARIES EXIST FROM S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO NEAR MIAMI. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MINIMAL CAP...AND STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
ARE WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...GENERALLY AOB 25 KT AND SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELLS.
ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN MORE LIMITED OVER THE SWRN FL PENINSULA WHERE
SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN MODERATED BY ANVIL DEBRIS. ALSO DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN IN THE PROCESS OF MIXING DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SWRN COAST...POSSIBLY DUE IN PART TO THE INFLUENCE
OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THE OFFSHORE MCS.
..DIAL.. 04/09/2006
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
25988012 25458039 25528076 26588149 27228244 27488214
27238134 27418041 26878011
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1193 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:01 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0481
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CDT SUN APR 09 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FLORIDA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177...
VALID 092241Z - 092315Z
WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 23Z.
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED
WITHIN BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING WHICH ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR SYNOPTIC FRONT...SOUTH OF VERO
BEACH/TAMPA...REMAINS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...COOLING/DRYING OF BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALREADY OCCURRED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE NIGHTFALL SEEMS LIMITED IN SHEAR REGIME
ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION.
..KERR.. 04/09/2006
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...
27058243 27288198 27508112 27608026 27757984 27137948
25807972 24758014 24218150 23878170 23548178 23608296
24178316 24818311 25028206 25218153 25588185 26088226
26498254 26658252
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1194 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:38 am
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CDT MON APR 10 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN DAKOTAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 102249Z - 110015Z
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS RATHER VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTH OF REDIG SD. THIS
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN AIDED BY MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES HAVE BECOME FOCUSED NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS
PROGGED TO MIGRATE OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY 02-03Z.
THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS ONLY
IN THE LOWER 40S...RUC INDICATES MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FOR HEATED
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG. EMBEDDED WITHIN
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT
ROTATION...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING
OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. MAIN SEVERE
THREAT...HOWEVER...MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS IN DRY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OFF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
..KERR.. 04/10/2006
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
45880421 46660404 47040378 47380278 46850146 46130175
45000217 44500175 43830229 43960328 44570374 44920392
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1195 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:18 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...SE NEB...SW IA...NW MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 112258Z - 120030Z
A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNDERWAY EAST OF CONCORDIA KS INTO THE
BEATRICE NEB AREA...WHERE 80 KT 500 MB JET STREAK IS ENHANCING
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
SURFACE FRONT. PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS HAS BECOME
FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INCREASING INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S AS DEW POINTS CLIMBED TO NEAR 50F.
THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING CAPE AROUND 750 J/KG AS CAP IS
BROKEN.
INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS AS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE
IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN
DRY...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROBABLY WILL ENHANCE
DOWNDRAFTS...AND DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH BELT
OF 40 TO 50 KT MEAN CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH BY 02-03Z AS
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE.
..KERR.. 04/11/2006
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
40719629 41319578 41869565 42519523 42539423 41759382
40659474 39909535 39399609 39039673 39199713 39879704
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1196 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:19 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0949 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...PARTS OF NRN MO...SW WI...NW IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 120249Z - 120415Z
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS.
FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...FOCUSED
ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAKENING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT...HAS PROGRESSED
THROUGH NARROW TONGUE OF STRONGER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WHERE
LAPSE RATES BECAME QUITE STEEP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THOUGH RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER SPEED MAXIMUM IS WEAKENING...MID-
LEVEL COOLING/LIFT MAY MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 06Z. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW CLOUD
BASES LIKELY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS...
AND SOME RISK FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...BUT THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO
BECOME MORE SPORADIC IN COOLER/COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. POTENTIAL
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO DROP OFF IN COOLER LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
..KERR.. 04/12/2006
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...TOP...
42329329 43379286 43249109 43059089 42349053 41579058
40879081 40439123 39479224 38849372 38199599 39479474
40299390 41059332
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1197 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:19 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT WED APR 12 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN LWR MI...EXTREME NERN IND...NRN/CNTRL
OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 121735Z - 122000Z
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SWD FROM SRN LWR MI INTO EXTREME NERN IND EARLY
THIS AFTN...THEN MOVE EWD AND BECOME STRONGER IN NRN/CNTRL OH AFTER
21Z. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR.
WELL-DEFINED UPPER VORTICITY CENTER WAS MOVING ACROSS LWR MI AT 30
KTS AND WILL BE OVER SWRN ONTARIO BY 22Z. TRAILING TROUGH PASSED
THE WLC INDIANA PROFILER AROUND 15Z AND WILL SWING EWD ACROSS SERN
LWR MI AND NRN/CNTRL OH THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CORRESPONDING SFC
REFLECTION...IN THE FORM OF CONVERGENCE...WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR
TSTM INITIATION FROM SCNTRL/SERN LWR MI INTO NERN IND EARLY THIS
AFTN.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A TONGUE OF 50-55 DEGREE F DEW POINTS ADVECTING
NEWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT COINCIDENT WITH THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTN.
TAMDAR/ACAR SOUNDINGS FROM KTOL/KDTW EXHIBIT VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WITH 45+ KTS JUST OFF THE SFC...WITH FLOW TURNING WNWLY
ABOVE 3 KM. THIS IS BOOSTING VERTICAL AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES TO
SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. MEAN-SHEAR VECTORS IN THE 2-6KM
LAYER NEARLY NORMAL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT THERE
COULD BE DISCRETE STRUCTURES. BUT...EVOLUTION INTO A MIX OF LINEAR
AND DISCRETE CELLS WILL BE LIKELY OWING TO STRONG FORCING. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
..RACY.. 04/12/2006
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
40028464 41098545 42288478 42728387 42568300 42148184
41658115 40728064 39948188 39768301 39718411
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1198 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:20 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT WED APR 12 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SRN MO...EXTREME NERN OK...NRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 122004Z - 122200Z
SFC ANALYSIS PLACES AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN OK AND AR.
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TSTM INITIATION ACROSS NRN AR. VSBL
SATL SHOWS ADDITIONAL CUMULUS GROWING THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT FROM
EAST OF KTUL TO JUST WEST OF THE MO BOOTHEEL.
THOUGH THE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER-3KM LAYER IS WEAK...STRONGER
FLOW EXISTS ABOVE...BOOSTING 6KM SHEAR INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT MAINLY ISOLD MULTICELL STORMS WILL EXIST WITH
SLOW STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
NONETHELESS...SHALLOW INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..RACY.. 04/12/2006
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
36669435 36539360 36319211 36129134 35679149 35559231
35659331 36139504
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1199 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:20 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 PM CDT WED APR 12 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 122104Z - 122330Z
PREDOMINATELY SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU EXTENDING FROM S OF CDS TO E OF
MAF...ALONG SOON TO BE RETREATING DRYLINE AND WITHIN SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...CONTINUED
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DUE TO UPPER HIGH
OVERHEAD. THUS...ONLY PULSE TYPE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN
1000-1500 MLCAPE AND RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...STRONG WIND
GUSTS...AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP...WITH DECREASING
THREAT AFTER SUNSET.
..JEWELL.. 04/12/2006
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
34069952 32529999 31780094 31520127 32440215 33100177
33970118 34390057 34450004
0 likes
-
TexasStooge
- Category 5

- Posts: 38127
- Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
- Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
-
Contact:
#1200 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:20 pm
Code: Select all
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT WED APR 12 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH/NWRN PA/FAR WRN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 122207Z - 122300Z
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00-01Z ACROSS NERN OH/NWRN PA AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
WRN NY.
BAND OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM SRN ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO
NORTH CENTRAL OH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD AT 45 KT. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY...SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500 J/KG/ ACROSS WRN OH/NRN KY IS BEING FED INTO
NERN OH PER A 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ. STRONG FORCING SPREADING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION AT THIS TIME WILL
MAINTAIN ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURE...BUT 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
ORIENTED NORMAL TO BAND OF STORMS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT DISCRETE
STRUCTURES.
STRONGER CORES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
GIVEN STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE /AROUND 50 KT JUST BELOW
1 KM AGL PER CLE WSR-88D VAD/ AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
/25-35 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS/ FAVORING DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT/COVERAGE.
..PETERS.. 04/12/2006
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
41008245 41378166 42088075 42547936 42317906 40917948
40628045 40558209 40598261
0 likes
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 24 guests