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#1181 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:48 am

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0469
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 AM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA/WRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 171...
   
   VALID 080745Z - 080845Z
   
   STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW...THOUGH MOST VIGOROUS STORMS
   WILL MOVE SEWD INTO WW 172.  WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
   09Z.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGEST CONVECTION -- NOW OVER FAR SERN
   PORTIONS OF WW -- MOVING SEWD INTO WW 172.  MEANWHILE...STORMS
   FURTHER N INTO NRN GA HAVE SHOWN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME.
   THIS SEEMS TO CONFIRM LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...WHICH INDICATE
   ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT BEST OVER NRN GA. WITH EVEN LESS
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS INDICATED INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS...EXPECT STORMS TO
   CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EWD.  THEREFORE...NEW WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...
   
   34238460 34958375 35228230 34248298 33998406
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#1182 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:49 am

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0642 AM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 172...
   
   VALID 081142Z - 081315Z
   
   BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DRIFTING SWD ACROSS THE SRN
   HALF OF WW WHILE WEAKENING WITH TIME.  LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
   CONTINUES.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS -- ALONG THE
   LEADING EDGE OF A SEWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- MOVING ACROSS
   CENTRAL GA ATTM.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR
   SEVERE STORMS...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
   INDICATE LIMITED INSTABILITY S OF ONGOING STORMS.  THOUGH A LIMITED
   THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- MAY
   PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OVERALL CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOULD
   REMAIN DOWNWARD.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...BMX...
   
   32428525 32898399 33478256 32468258 32118523
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#1183 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:49 am

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0730 AM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 081230Z - 081430Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT -- CURRENTLY LIMITED TO ELEVATED HAIL -- SHOULD
   INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES.
   NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY
   ACROSS CENTRAL NC ATTM...ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  INSTABILITY
   REMAINS LIMITED PER 12Z GSO /GREENSBORO NC/ RAOB...AND THUS WOULD
   EXPECT ANY SHORT-TERM SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF
   MARGINAL HAIL.
   
   AS DAYTIME HEATING INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT
   BOUNDARY LAYER TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE.  WITH SHEAR QUITE FAVORABLE
   FOR SEVERE STORMS -- AIDED BY 80-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET...ANY
   SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS. THOUGH EWD EXTENT OF THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED FOR AT
   LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN DRY/STABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AS
   REVEALED BY MORNING MHX /MOREHEAD CITY NC/...A CORRIDOR OF
   SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC
   INTO SERN VA.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...
   
   37227835 37867661 36977612 35677683 34447844 34377996
   35937930
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#1184 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 8:50 am

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0837 AM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE THROUGH SRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 081337Z - 081530Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SRN AL...SRN GA AND INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
   AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
   SHORTLY.
   
   EARLY THIS MORNING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE
   CAROLINAS SWWD THROUGH CNTRL GA AND FARTHER SWWD THROUGH SRN AL. THE
   WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MOIST WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG AND FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS HEATING COMMENCES. STORMS SHOULD
   CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A WSWLY 40
   KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST IN THIS REGION WITHIN A ZONE OF HEIGHT
   FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM A SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   31288694 32178536 32458282 31778238 30678317 29828496
   30508607 30388752
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#1185 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 3:51 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1100 AM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA THROUGH PORTIONS OF NRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 081600Z - 081800Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH SERN GA
   AND PORTIONS OF NRN FL BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
   INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
   AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
   
   LATE THIS MORNING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN SC
   SWWD THROUGH S CNTRL GA AND FARTHER SW INTO SERN AL. THIS BOUNDARY
   IS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS SERN
   GA AND NRN FL. STRONG SURFACE HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   WILL PROMOTE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE MORNING
   RAOB DATA FROM JACKSONVILLE SHOWED PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL
   INVERSION...AND THIS MAY TEND TO INHIBIT DEEP ROBUST CONVECTION A
   WHILE LONGER. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPER LAYER ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD SEWD. THIS
   SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
   THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL JET ON SERN PERIPHERY OF
   UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT SEWD ABOVE THE WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND
   MAINTAIN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
   INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...
   
   30128159 29978282 32168297 32398130 31228147
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#1186 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 3:51 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 PM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 081738Z - 081945Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
   COASTAL NC THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
   STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH BOWS. AREA IS
   BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR
   ELIZABETH CITY SWWD THROUGH ERN SC. A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
   EXISTS W OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN NC FROM NEAR ROCKY MOUNT SWWD
   TO JUST E OF FLORENCE IN ERN SC. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
   THESE BOUNDARIES IS DESTABILIZING WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG.
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY TO
   PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR INITIATION
   APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR COASTAL NC WHERE
   CONVERGENCE COULD BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
   STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
   
   34327765 34027828 33997867 34277870 34807814 35597741
   36307672 36287594 35477584
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#1187 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 3:52 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 PM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...THE WRN AND CNTRL FL PANHANDLE THROUGH
   SWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 173...
   
   VALID 081900Z - 082100Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL
   CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON A SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS SRN GA
   INTO SERN AL. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS IN WARM SECTOR S OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...AND STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST HOUR AS
   DESTABILIZATION INCREASES. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE LARGELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45 KT.
   STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS OVER SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE
   WHERE THE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS BACKED TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION.
   POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
   LINE SEGMENTS WITH BOW ECHOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
   
   30098346 29538669 30968661 31608520 31548322
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#1188 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 3:53 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0476
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 PM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA EXTREME ERN SC THROUGH NRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 174...
   
   VALID 082022Z - 082215Z
   
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
   PERSIST ACROSS SRN GA INTO NRN FL INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE THREAT
   ACROSS ERN SC WILL END WITHIN ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AS THE STORMS MOVE
   OFFSHORE.
   
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD ADVANCING
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN GA INTO NRN FL NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
   LATEST RUC FORECASTS A 40 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST INTO
   THE EARLY EVENING OVER NRN FL AND EXTREME SRN GA WITHIN A ZONE OF
   HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VWP
   DATA ACROSS EXTREME SRN GA CONTINUE TO SHOW 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
   HELICITY AROUND 180 M2/S2 FOR ENEWD MOVING STORMS AND DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH BOW ECHOES REMAIN LIKELY WITHIN
   THIS ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...JAX...TAE...
   
   33227871 32278001 30988138 29768126 29578327 31248308
   32328148 33847909
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#1189 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 9:46 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0477
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0434 PM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NC AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 175...
   
   VALID 082134Z - 082300Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG
   THE ERN NC OUTER BANKS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT 1-2
   HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WW
   175.
   
   STORMS OVER ERN NC HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A LINEAR CLUSTER FROM
   AROUND NCA TO FFA. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
   OUTER BANKS AND OFFSHORE. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 70KT PER MHX
   VAD PROFILER MAY STILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY
   LAYER STABILIZATION WILL DIMINISH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FURTHER
   SOUTH...ADDITIONAL DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH
   MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
   SHEAR...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST FOR THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...
   
   33977796 34487760 35177699 35737619 36047577 36097536
   35627511 35247523 35017546 34347654 34027733 33467798
   33437840 336778539
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#1190 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Apr 08, 2006 9:46 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0559 PM CDT SAT APR 08 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL INTO N CNTRL FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 174...176...
   
   VALID 082259Z - 090030Z
   
   CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW.  ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY
   DEVELOP INTO NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA AREAS SOUTH OF WW 174 SHORTLY.
   HOWEVER...RISK MAY REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR
   AN ADDITIONAL WW...AS BELT OF STRONGER FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AWAY
   FROM SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
   
   TONGUE OF 70F+ DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER MOIST RETURN FLOW
   IS READILY EVIDENT IN SURFACE DATA ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
   MEXICO.  THIS EXTENDS THROUGH AREAS NEAR/EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG
   BEND INTO SOUTHWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS EXTREME
   SOUTHERN GEORGIA.  FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SOUTHERN
   BRANCH TROUGH CONTINUES TO AID VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
   OUTFLOW...AND IN WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
   OFF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
   PENINSULA.
   
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL ADVANCE ACROSS JACKSONVILLE AND THE
   INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN NOW AND 00-01Z...WITH SEVERE THREAT
   DIMINISHING TO THE NORTH OF BOUNDARY.  GUSTY WINDS/LARGE HAIL MAY
   CONTINUE IN STRONGER CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...AND IN NEW
   DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ALONG EASTERN GULF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT
   ZONE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO COASTAL AREAS FROM NEAR CEDAR
   KEY THROUGH THE TAMPA AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/08/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   29428446 29858439 30848355 31108253 31168182 31188136
   30848074 30138092 29568151 29048189 28618237 28168339
   28318395 28778409 29118403
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#1191 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:00 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0930 AM CDT SUN APR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091430Z - 091630Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF S FL WITHIN
   THE NEXT TWO HOURS.
   
   LATE THIS MORNING A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS S
   CNTRL FL FROM S OF VERO BEACH SWWD TO NEAR FORT MYERS. RICH LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS IN THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. THE 12Z RAOB FROM MIAMI SHOWS STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CONTRIBUTING TO
   MODERATE INSTABILITY. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS ANVIL
   CIRRUS DISSIPATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED. THE
   WEAK CAP...DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING...PRESENCE OF SUBTLE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. AMBIENT LOW LEVEL FLOW
   THROUGH 2 KM IS QUITE WEAK AND KINEMATIC PROFILES THROUGH A DEEPER
   LAYER ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITHIN THE
   STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...
   
   25938015 25338048 25258092 26278145 26828111 27108030
   26848006
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#1192 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:01 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0480
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT SUN APR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177...
   
   VALID 091943Z - 092145Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN FL
   PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
   REMAIN A THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   BOUNDARIES...SEVERAL OF WHICH APPEAR TO BE ENHANCED BY SEABREEZE
   CIRCULATIONS...PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA. ONE SUCH
   BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR SARASOTA SEWD TO N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
   OTHER BOUNDARIES EXIST FROM S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO NEAR MIAMI. THE
   ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MINIMAL CAP...AND STORMS
   SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
   ARE WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...GENERALLY AOB 25 KT AND SUPPORTIVE OF
   MULTICELLS.
   
   ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN MORE LIMITED OVER THE SWRN FL PENINSULA WHERE
   SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN MODERATED BY ANVIL DEBRIS. ALSO DEWPOINTS
   HAVE BEEN IN THE PROCESS OF MIXING DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG
   PORTIONS OF THE SWRN COAST...POSSIBLY DUE IN PART TO THE INFLUENCE
   OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THE OFFSHORE MCS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 04/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
   
   25988012 25458039 25528076 26588149 27228244 27488214
   27238134 27418041 26878011
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#1193 Postby TexasStooge » Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:01 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0481
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CDT SUN APR 09 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FLORIDA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177...
   
   VALID 092241Z - 092315Z
   
   WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 23Z.
   
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED
   WITHIN BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING WHICH ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE
   SHIFTING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.  LINGERING
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR SYNOPTIC FRONT...SOUTH OF VERO
   BEACH/TAMPA...REMAINS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   HOWEVER...COOLING/DRYING OF BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALREADY OCCURRED
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE NIGHTFALL SEEMS LIMITED IN SHEAR REGIME
   ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/09/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...
   
   27058243 27288198 27508112 27608026 27757984 27137948
   25807972 24758014 24218150 23878170 23548178 23608296
   24178316 24818311 25028206 25218153 25588185 26088226
   26498254 26658252
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#1194 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:38 am

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0549 PM CDT MON APR 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN DAKOTAS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 102249Z - 110015Z
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS RATHER VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
   UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTH OF REDIG SD.  THIS
   APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN AIDED BY MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES
   THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE
   RATES HAVE BECOME FOCUSED NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS
   PROGGED TO MIGRATE OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
   DAKOTA BY 02-03Z.
   
   THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS ONLY
   IN THE LOWER 40S...RUC INDICATES MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FOR HEATED
   SURFACE-BASED PARCELS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG.  EMBEDDED WITHIN
   MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT
   ROTATION...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING
   OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. MAIN SEVERE
   THREAT...HOWEVER...MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG GUSTY
   SURFACE WINDS IN DRY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OFF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES FAIRLY
   QUICKLY AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/10/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
   
   45880421 46660404 47040378 47380278 46850146 46130175
   45000217 44500175 43830229 43960328 44570374 44920392
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#1195 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:18 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0483
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0558 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...SE NEB...SW IA...NW MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 112258Z - 120030Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNDERWAY EAST OF CONCORDIA KS INTO THE
   BEATRICE NEB AREA...WHERE 80 KT 500 MB JET STREAK IS ENHANCING
   FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
   SURFACE FRONT. PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS HAS BECOME
   FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   INCREASING INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S AS DEW POINTS CLIMBED TO NEAR 50F.
    THIS APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING CAPE AROUND 750 J/KG AS CAP IS
   BROKEN.
   
   INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
   EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS AS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE
   IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS MAY BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.  EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN
   DRY...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROBABLY WILL ENHANCE
   DOWNDRAFTS...AND DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH BELT
   OF 40 TO 50 KT MEAN CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET.
    ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH BY 02-03Z AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
   
   40719629 41319578 41869565 42519523 42539423 41759382
   40659474 39909535 39399609 39039673 39199713 39879704
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#1196 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:19 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0484
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0949 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...PARTS OF NRN MO...SW WI...NW IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 120249Z - 120415Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...FOCUSED
   ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAKENING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT...HAS PROGRESSED
   THROUGH NARROW TONGUE OF STRONGER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WHERE
   LAPSE RATES BECAME QUITE STEEP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
   THOUGH RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER SPEED MAXIMUM IS WEAKENING...MID-
   LEVEL COOLING/LIFT MAY MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
   CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
   OF IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 06Z.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW CLOUD
   BASES LIKELY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS...
   AND SOME RISK FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...BUT THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO
   BECOME MORE SPORADIC IN COOLER/COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. POTENTIAL
   FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO DROP OFF IN COOLER LOW-LEVEL
   ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...TOP...
   
   42329329 43379286 43249109 43059089 42349053 41579058
   40879081 40439123 39479224 38849372 38199599 39479474
   40299390 41059332
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#1197 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:19 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0485
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 PM CDT WED APR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN LWR MI...EXTREME NERN IND...NRN/CNTRL
   OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121735Z - 122000Z
   
   TSTMS WILL DEVELOP SWD FROM SRN LWR MI INTO EXTREME NERN IND EARLY
   THIS AFTN...THEN MOVE EWD AND BECOME STRONGER IN NRN/CNTRL OH AFTER
   21Z.  A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
   PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   WELL-DEFINED UPPER VORTICITY CENTER WAS MOVING ACROSS LWR MI AT 30
   KTS AND WILL BE OVER SWRN ONTARIO BY 22Z.  TRAILING TROUGH PASSED
   THE WLC INDIANA PROFILER AROUND 15Z AND WILL SWING EWD ACROSS SERN
   LWR MI AND NRN/CNTRL OH THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CORRESPONDING SFC
   REFLECTION...IN THE FORM OF CONVERGENCE...WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR
   TSTM INITIATION FROM SCNTRL/SERN LWR MI INTO NERN IND EARLY THIS
   AFTN.
   
   MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A TONGUE OF 50-55 DEGREE F DEW POINTS ADVECTING
   NEWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT COINCIDENT WITH THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT THIS AFTN.
   
   TAMDAR/ACAR SOUNDINGS FROM KTOL/KDTW EXHIBIT VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   WIND FIELDS WITH 45+ KTS JUST OFF THE SFC...WITH FLOW TURNING WNWLY
   ABOVE 3 KM.  THIS IS BOOSTING VERTICAL AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES TO
   SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  MEAN-SHEAR VECTORS IN THE 2-6KM
   LAYER NEARLY NORMAL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT THERE
   COULD BE DISCRETE STRUCTURES.  BUT...EVOLUTION INTO A MIX OF LINEAR
   AND DISCRETE CELLS WILL BE LIKELY OWING TO STRONG FORCING.  STRONGER
   STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY.  ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
   
   40028464 41098545 42288478 42728387 42568300 42148184
   41658115 40728064 39948188 39768301 39718411
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#1198 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:20 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0486
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 PM CDT WED APR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SRN MO...EXTREME NERN OK...NRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122004Z - 122200Z
   
   SFC ANALYSIS PLACES AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN OK AND AR.
   WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
   HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TSTM INITIATION ACROSS NRN AR.  VSBL
   SATL SHOWS ADDITIONAL CUMULUS GROWING THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT FROM
   EAST OF KTUL TO JUST WEST OF THE MO BOOTHEEL.
   
   THOUGH THE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER-3KM LAYER IS WEAK...STRONGER
   FLOW EXISTS ABOVE...BOOSTING 6KM SHEAR INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE.
   THIS SUGGESTS THAT MAINLY ISOLD MULTICELL STORMS WILL EXIST WITH
   SLOW STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 KTS.
   NONETHELESS...SHALLOW INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
   PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   36669435 36539360 36319211 36129134 35679149 35559231
   35659331 36139504
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#1199 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:20 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0487
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 PM CDT WED APR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122104Z - 122330Z
   
   PREDOMINATELY SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   WRN CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
   SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TCU EXTENDING FROM S OF CDS TO E OF
   MAF...ALONG SOON TO BE RETREATING DRYLINE AND WITHIN SURFACE
   PRESSURE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...CONTINUED
   HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
   SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DUE TO UPPER HIGH
   OVERHEAD. THUS...ONLY PULSE TYPE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN
   1000-1500 MLCAPE AND RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...STRONG WIND
   GUSTS...AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
   MAY OCCUR ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP...WITH DECREASING
   THREAT AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 04/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   34069952 32529999 31780094 31520127 32440215 33100177
   33970118 34390057 34450004
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#1200 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:20 pm

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0507 PM CDT WED APR 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH/NWRN PA/FAR WRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122207Z - 122300Z
   
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH 00-01Z ACROSS NERN OH/NWRN PA AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR
   WRN NY.
   
   BAND OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM SRN ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO
   NORTH CENTRAL OH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD AT 45 KT. ALTHOUGH
   INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY...SLIGHTLY GREATER
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500 J/KG/ ACROSS WRN OH/NRN KY IS BEING FED INTO
   NERN OH PER A 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ.  STRONG FORCING SPREADING ACROSS
   THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION AT THIS TIME WILL
   MAINTAIN ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURE...BUT 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   ORIENTED NORMAL TO BAND OF STORMS SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT DISCRETE
   STRUCTURES.
   
   STRONGER CORES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
   GIVEN STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE /AROUND 50 KT JUST BELOW
   1 KM AGL PER CLE WSR-88D VAD/ AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   /25-35 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS/ FAVORING DOWNWARD
   MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
   THREAT/COVERAGE.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   41008245 41378166 42088075 42547936 42317906 40917948
   40628045 40558209 40598261
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