CapeVerdeWave wrote:
The neutral-like conditions in the Pacific seem to be weakening slightly, and the cooler waters off South America seem to be hinting at moving westward. I expect further warming in a large swath of the Atlantic - including the western Atlantic - due to the weaker trades. I expect a large-scale pattern change occurring likely over the next two months or so forecast by model consensus will result in less of an influence of the Bermuda High, while the Azores High takes the upper hand in the central and eastern Atlantic. A negative NAO will likely resurge, along with hints of a persistent spring to summer Great Plains ridge beginning to take place. This pattern is indicative in many La Nina years and generally lean towards La Nina conditions. I expect further warming in many areas of the Atlantic and a resurge in a La Nina in the Pacific over the next many weeks. Any thoughts? Who agrees?
La Nina is not dead. It is likely coming back, and the pattern change supports a continuation of La Nina conditions. SOI supports it, too. How long this pattern continues, though, is the key. It waits to be seen if this lasts into August/September.
I tend to agree about La Nina and its possible resurgence.. give it a few weeks to see if the neutralish conditions currently out there persist. My idea is as soon as the trades stregthen to ely 10 kt on the equator in the epac, the cooling should recommence again. It really isn't uncommon to see warmings at this time of the year that are short-lived.
As far as the pattern over the summertime.. it is really too early to say what exactly will happen. we can hem and haw and say negative NAO this and positive AO that... but the NAO really weakens as a signal in the summertime, and some papers have suggested that a positive AO might be as important as negative NAO at the same time (for landfalls). Basically all those fun global teleconnection patterns really weaken in the summertime, so the signals get weaker and it becomes difficult to separate the noise from the signal. Same problem with the MJO. Bottom line to me is wait and see.. maybe composite the last 10 weak/moderate La Nina events if someone is sure that it will be that way in the summertime and see what turns up... I do know that the wintertime AO/NAO has been negative and that tends to be linked to a higher probability of hurricane landfall in the USA (papers by Gray and Jim Elsner independently came to the same conclusion)... so that can't be seen as a good sign.
