SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

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benny
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#941 Postby benny » Sun Apr 16, 2006 9:59 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Image

The neutral-like conditions in the Pacific seem to be weakening slightly, and the cooler waters off South America seem to be hinting at moving westward. I expect further warming in a large swath of the Atlantic - including the western Atlantic - due to the weaker trades. I expect a large-scale pattern change occurring likely over the next two months or so forecast by model consensus will result in less of an influence of the Bermuda High, while the Azores High takes the upper hand in the central and eastern Atlantic. A negative NAO will likely resurge, along with hints of a persistent spring to summer Great Plains ridge beginning to take place. This pattern is indicative in many La Nina years and generally lean towards La Nina conditions. I expect further warming in many areas of the Atlantic and a resurge in a La Nina in the Pacific over the next many weeks. Any thoughts? Who agrees?

La Nina is not dead. It is likely coming back, and the pattern change supports a continuation of La Nina conditions. SOI supports it, too. How long this pattern continues, though, is the key. It waits to be seen if this lasts into August/September.


I tend to agree about La Nina and its possible resurgence.. give it a few weeks to see if the neutralish conditions currently out there persist. My idea is as soon as the trades stregthen to ely 10 kt on the equator in the epac, the cooling should recommence again. It really isn't uncommon to see warmings at this time of the year that are short-lived.

As far as the pattern over the summertime.. it is really too early to say what exactly will happen. we can hem and haw and say negative NAO this and positive AO that... but the NAO really weakens as a signal in the summertime, and some papers have suggested that a positive AO might be as important as negative NAO at the same time (for landfalls). Basically all those fun global teleconnection patterns really weaken in the summertime, so the signals get weaker and it becomes difficult to separate the noise from the signal. Same problem with the MJO. Bottom line to me is wait and see.. maybe composite the last 10 weak/moderate La Nina events if someone is sure that it will be that way in the summertime and see what turns up... I do know that the wintertime AO/NAO has been negative and that tends to be linked to a higher probability of hurricane landfall in the USA (papers by Gray and Jim Elsner independently came to the same conclusion)... so that can't be seen as a good sign.
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#942 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Apr 16, 2006 10:06 pm

benny wrote:I tend to agree about La Nina and its possible resurgence.. give it a few weeks to see if the neutralish conditions currently out there persist. My idea is as soon as the trades stregthen to ely 10 kt on the equator in the epac, the cooling should recommence again. It really isn't uncommon to see warmings at this time of the year that are short-lived.


I agree. Those are my points. The current warm anomalies may be shallow and not as good an indicator on what the TRUE overall pattern is or what is going on beneath the surface (subsurface SSTs/subsurface SST anomalies), which are very important for figuring out true patterns and trends partly. What I am looking for is those overall signs and persistence of particular events. Given the current pattern, I expect a recooling and resurge of the La Nina conditions over the eastern and central Pacific over the next several weeks.

benny wrote:As far as the pattern over the summertime.. it is really too early to say what exactly will happen. we can hem and haw and say negative NAO this and positive AO that... but the NAO really weakens as a signal in the summertime, and some papers have suggested that a positive AO might be as important as negative NAO at the same time (for landfalls). Basically all those fun global teleconnection patterns really weaken in the summertime, so the signals get weaker and it becomes difficult to separate the noise from the signal. Same problem with the MJO. Bottom line to me is wait and see.. maybe composite the last 10 weak/moderate La Nina events if someone is sure that it will be that way in the summertime and see what turns up... I do know that the wintertime AO/NAO has been negative and that tends to be linked to a higher probability of hurricane landfall in the USA (papers by Gray and Jim Elsner independently came to the same conclusion)... so that can't be seen as a good sign.


Interesting. I am very curious to see if the current pattern persists into the summer. As far as I know, we could revert back to neutral conditions and a western/central Atlantic potential ridging pattern by August; in the meantime, however, we need to wait, see, analyze, and look at patterns - both short-term and long-term signal patterns/signs.
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#943 Postby meteorologyman » Sun Apr 16, 2006 10:08 pm

I strongly agree with you guys
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#944 Postby benny » Sun Apr 16, 2006 10:10 pm

Here is one of the state of art SST forecast issued by the CFS model, a product of EMC at NCEP:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... rmMask.gif

I would include the image but I think that is banned now. Anyway the gray areas are the areas it doesn't have any skill at this range. Note the warmth it is forecasting in the Caribbean for JAS 06... if this plays out to be true, it should mean another weak trade year and plenty of formations in the western part of the basin.
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#945 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Apr 16, 2006 10:13 pm

It also indicates persisting weak La Nina conditions or so. Interesting if this plays out.

What do you think about Florida's vulnerability this year? Any early thoughts or hints?
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#946 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Apr 16, 2006 11:43 pm

I noticed something, there seems to be a really large warm eddy 100 miles south Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket, which really is pretty impressive
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#947 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 17, 2006 1:34 pm

Weekly Update of Atlantic Anomalies

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

This weeks update of the Atlantic anomalies show warming in the MDR mostly east of 40w.Still there are pockets of cooler anomalies in the Western Atlantic.
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#948 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Mon Apr 17, 2006 1:47 pm

Impressive warming off of the Northeast. Is this a possible showing of a strong hurricane event there after all?
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#949 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Apr 17, 2006 1:48 pm

It really is something to watch in the coming months
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#950 Postby skysummit » Mon Apr 17, 2006 2:28 pm

04/17 17Z Plots...

Image
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#951 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Apr 17, 2006 5:28 pm

Hyperstorm on April 28, 2005 wrote:Of course, we all know that the most decisive factor for determining development in the Tropical Atlantic are the Upper-Level Winds since SSTs are warm year-round in many areas, but SSTs are a major factor for determining rapid changes in strength in a hurricane. That's why they are very important as well. All things being equal, the warmer the SSTs, the higher the potential for rapid intensification in a cyclone. So, we could be in for a very STRONG season ahead with these warm anomalies throughout the Atlantic. I wouldn't be surprised to see 4 or more major hurricanes this year 2005... AGAIN.

Also, those anomalies right off the coast of Africa of 2-3*C (which is a LOT) and a widespread area of 1*C just makes it much more likely to see an early Cape Verde season, as the major factor why the tropical waves' convection fizzles right off the coast in June and July is the SSTs being too cool.

If Upper-Level Winds and the Saharan Air Layer are favorable we will likely see the Cape Verde season start before August and a very active one for sure...


Great call... though CV season wasn't active it did start a bit earlier than usual, and there were too many storms that rapidly intensified in 2005.
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#952 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Apr 17, 2006 5:43 pm

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#953 Postby benny » Mon Apr 17, 2006 5:54 pm

cycloneye wrote:Weekly Update of Atlantic Anomalies

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

This weeks update of the Atlantic anomalies show warming in the MDR mostly east of 40w.Still there are pockets of cooler anomalies in the Western Atlantic.


Hi there,

This horseshoe pattern has probably been well-discussed.. but it is pretty typical in the active era to have cooler waters offshore of the US E Coast. Take a look at: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Goldenberg/science01.pdf

On the second page in figure A... note the pattern that dominates. Basically it shows the positive phase of the AMO... ie warm water in the far north atlantic, warm water in the tropical atlantic.. and cooler waters offshore of the US E Coast.
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CHRISTY

#954 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Apr 17, 2006 6:20 pm

Image
Last edited by CHRISTY on Tue Apr 18, 2006 2:33 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#955 Postby Coredesat » Mon Apr 17, 2006 6:27 pm

Those cooler waters off South America are slowly starting to creep westward. The weak La Nina may be trying to reinvigorate itself.
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#956 Postby windycity » Mon Apr 17, 2006 6:38 pm

Great abstract, Benny,i wonder too what changes we will be seeing in the coming months. Weak LaNina or neg. enso, i personally dont think it will mater that much, i think the BIG question will be the ridge setup.What is troubling is seeing SSTs higher in places like the northern east coast. It also looks as though the loop current is back with problematic SSTs, i will be praying for everyone in the gulf this year. :eek:
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#957 Postby Brandon007 » Mon Apr 17, 2006 6:50 pm

just wondering what color comes after that dark red because in a month or two I think they are going to need another color :eek: :eek: lol
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#958 Postby gatorcane » Mon Apr 17, 2006 6:53 pm

just wondering what color comes after that dark red because in a month or two I think they are going to need another color lol


it's always like this for SSTs during this time of year, no huge surprises here
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#959 Postby skysummit » Mon Apr 17, 2006 8:19 pm

CHRISTY....reminder, post thumbnails or links :)

04/18 00Z Plots

Image
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#960 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Apr 17, 2006 8:33 pm

Image

La Nina conditions are starting to spread westward slowly from South America. Western Atlantic waters continue to warm as easterlies turn weaker. The eastern Atlantic is warming, too, though Azores High-type ridging is starting to become established there as the Bermuda High-type ridging becomes less prominant due to the likely long-term (lasting two months or so, I say) climatological change. I expect further Atlantic warming (especially in the western Atlantic) and gradual redeveloping/westward spread of Pacific La Nina cooling over the next several weeks. Any thoughts?

Team Ragnarok wrote:Those cooler waters off South America are slowly starting to creep westward. The weak La Nina may be trying to reinvigorate itself.


I agree. This was and is my exact thinking.
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