benny wrote:KWT wrote:I think its fair to say that for now La Nina is all but compeltely gone and we are back in nuetral condtions.
Also, i can also see the cold anomalies presently over western atlantic to the east of Florida,Georgia and the Carolina's being replaced by warm anomalies by July, and its those cold anomalies that has held down the overall temp anomaly of the atlantic over the past few mnths to the +0.3 range.
I don't think it is fair at all to say that about the pacific. Right now.. the temperature anomalies are not La Nina. But it is a time-averaged phenomenon for sure and this is the time of the year where week to week changes just aren't very stable (ie the predictability barrier). That's why CPC uses a 3 month range. La Nina is also an ocean response to what the atmosphere is doing. The trades have been weak for the past month or so.. but if they kick in again, they will be back to cool conditions. Do we immediately say "La Nina is back"?? The atmosphere sure looks a lot more like La Nina than neutral.. the wind anomalies in the Atlantic are scary: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/h ... 00_30d.gif
Give it a few weeks before we claim La Nina is dead for good. Might not matter much in the long run.. considering 2005 was a neutral year, 2004 was a mild El Nino and the last true La Nina was 1999.. and both those years were more active than 99
Those winds are a little scary according to your graphic. Thanks for your synopis.
