Bay of Bengal: VSCS Mala - Possible catastrophe for Myanmar

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senorpepr
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#161 Postby senorpepr » Thu Apr 27, 2006 8:54 pm

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#162 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Apr 27, 2006 8:58 pm

Image

Image

Image

THE DOORS OF HELL ARE STARTING TO OPEN!!!
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#163 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Apr 27, 2006 9:00 pm

That is looking more in more like a upper cat3 or low cat4.
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#164 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Apr 27, 2006 9:01 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:That is looking more in more like a upper cat3 or low cat4.


LET WAIT FOR WHAT DVORAK HAS TO SAY IN THE NEXT UPDATE!
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#165 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Apr 27, 2006 9:12 pm

Effect of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake on Myanmar

Official reports from the government of Myanmar (Burma) cite a death toll of 56 due to the tsunami caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake on 26 December 2004. Independent media reports 90 people killed, with estimates extending to 600.

Although loss of life and property in Myanmar is suspected to be higher than official reports suggest, loss of life is not as high as in neighbouring Thailand due to various factors, most significantly the numerous islands off the coast of Myanmar which served to dissipate the force of the tsunami, a rocky shoreline, and the position of the coastline.

A Yangon-based representative from the United Nations states, "Conjecture fuelled by the experiences in neighbouring countries created a major and dangerous disconnect with reality." This assessment has also been corroborated by satellite photographs according to Colin Powell.

Also contributing to Myanmar's apparent lack of devastation is the fact that it is less developed than neighboring Thailand; international disapproval of the Burmese military regime has prevented the country from building a successful tourism industry.

30,000 citizens of Myanmar are estimated to be in need of shelter, food and water, 788 buildings have been reported damaged and destroyed.

An NGO estimates 2,500 citizens of Myanmar based in Phang Nga, Thailand during the event have been killed, and 7,000 Burmese are still unaccounted for. Many of these missing are, however, not presumed to be dead. Many refugees have fled to Thailand's interior after the destruction, or have been deported or chased back into the hills that divide the countries by Thai authorities.

Myanmar does not allow journalists into the country and maintains a strong hold on information disseminated in its state-run newspapers. This policy has created a difficult environment to gauge the lives affect by the tsunami.


LETS ALSO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT MYANMAR WAS AFFECTED BY THE 2004 TSUNAMI THAT DEVASTATED THIS PART OF THE WORLD.

This information was provided by Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_ ... on_Myanmar
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#166 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Apr 27, 2006 9:18 pm

No. BOB/1/2006/ 23 Dated 28th April 2006

Subject: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over east-central and adjoining
southeast Bay of Bengal

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “MALA” over east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved slightly northwards and lay centered at 0230 hrs. IST near Lat.13.50 N and Long. 90.50 E, about 300 km northwest of Port Blair. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a north-northeasterly direction.

The numerical models as well as synoptic patterns continue to suggest that the system may intensify further and track in a north-northeasterly direction towards Arakan coast with a possible landfall on 30th April.

Under its influence, scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Andaman Islands during next 24 hours. Gale force winds reaching 100-120 kmph also likely over Andaman Islands during the same period.

State of the sea will be very high to phenomenal along and off Andaman coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea during the same period.

Damage Expected :
Extensive damage to Kutcha houses. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees.

Action Suggested :
Total suspension of fishing operations. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors.
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#167 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Apr 27, 2006 10:06 pm

Although loss of life and property in Myanmar is suspected to be higher than official reports suggest, loss of life is not as high as in neighbouring Thailand due to various factors, most significantly the numerous islands off the coast of Myanmar which served to dissipate the force of the tsunami, a rocky shoreline, and the position of the coastline.


The same things that moderated the tsunami will hopefully also moderate the surge. Also with it moving so fast rain should not be a problem. Let's hope that is the case.
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#168 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Apr 27, 2006 10:13 pm

Myanmar has a mountain range on both the East and Western edges of the country. This should help in rapid weakening before it gets to the central flat lands of the country, but is relativly flat on the coast though.
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#169 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Apr 27, 2006 10:16 pm

Image

The eye is becoming more defined by the moment.
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#170 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Apr 27, 2006 10:17 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
The same things that moderated the tsunami will hopefully also moderate the surge. Also with it moving so fast rain should not be a problem. Let's hope that is the case.


I don't know. Bangladesh lucked out with the tsunami, but we all know Bangladesh's hstory with storm surge.

Then again, this isn't Bangladesh we are talking about.
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#171 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Apr 27, 2006 10:17 pm

I hope it get the dictater out of power thats all...Also it looks very good tonight maybe upper cat3 or lower cat4. Can't wait for the t numbers.
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#172 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Apr 27, 2006 10:18 pm

what are we looking at a cat 3?
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#173 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Apr 27, 2006 10:19 pm

At least!
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#174 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Apr 27, 2006 10:21 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I hope it get the dictater out of power thats all.


I'm afraid it takes more than a cyclone to get a dictator out. I think a coup d'etat would be the more likely situation.
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#175 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Apr 27, 2006 10:23 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I hope it get the dictater out of power thats all.


I'm afraid it takes more than a cyclone to get a dictator out. I think a coup d'etat would be the more likely situation.


Or if a country really close to us finds oil in Myanmar!!!!
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#176 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Apr 27, 2006 10:28 pm

Right now she has 105 mph winds and still strengthening!
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#177 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Apr 27, 2006 10:38 pm

28/0230 UTC 14.7N 91.8E T5.5/5.5 MALA -- Bay of Bengal


I HAVE, I MUST AGREE, 115 MPH.
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#178 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Apr 27, 2006 10:39 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:
The same things that moderated the tsunami will hopefully also moderate the surge. Also with it moving so fast rain should not be a problem. Let's hope that is the case.


I don't know. Bangladesh lucked out with the tsunami, but we all know Bangladesh's hstory with storm surge.

Then again, this isn't Bangladesh we are talking about.


The tsunami propogated mainly east and west so Bangladesh was too far north to feel the effects. Myanmar was directly east of it.
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#179 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Apr 27, 2006 10:42 pm

Image

LOOKING BETTER BY THE MINUTE!!!
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#180 Postby Derecho » Thu Apr 27, 2006 11:04 pm

Actually the cloud tops are warming despite the eye becoming more distinct.

This both SSD and AODT Dvorak hasn't really been rising.
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