Neutral ENSO Returns to Pacific

[MiamiensisWx]

NO ENSO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AND NEAR-NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MAY.

Hmm... if it switches over to neutral, it may be neutral/coolish. Do they expect something different after May? Just curious.

[MiamiensisWx]

Latest SST anomalies show little sign of much of a Kelvin Wave progressing eastward. Also, waters around Alaska and the Pacific Northwest remain rather typical of La Nina to neutral/coolish conditions.

[Aquawind]

They don't say in the article. But here is the release schedule.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... edule.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/f ... ooks.shtml

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks!

[wxmann_91]

I disagree a bit with the BoM. To me, current conditions are not quite neutral. Atmospheric patterns (such as increasingly prevelant Great Plains ridging) are emerging that are more characteristic of La Nina conditions. This, along with cooler eastern Pacific SST anomalies now than a few weeks before, truly suggest we still have weak to moderate La Nina conditions. Any thoughts?

I disagree, IMO there is a neutral ENSO right now. Great Plains ridging is not a byproduct of La Nina, rather, an abnormally far north subtropical jet and a powerful Pacific Jet results in a strong southeast ridge, and a pounding in the Pacific Northwest.

And furthermore, attm, there are no signs of Plains ridging. IMO the dry ground over the Plains will allow greater heating and therefore a greater possibility of a Heat Ridge but the recent rains will dampen the prospects of that. In fact, the recent rains are likely the byproduct of the recent waning of the La Nina, as the jet stream has shifted further south.

[MiamiensisWx]

Hmm... could it be just a negative NAO, then, that is causing weaker western Atlantic ridging now, along with a more southerly jet stream?

[Aquawind]

THESE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING LA NINA CONDITIONS.

We will see how far they warm but they seem to think Nina is rapidly weakening according the the current facts versus a forecast of no likely ENSO impacts..

[Jim Hughes]

THESE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING LA NINA CONDITIONS.

We will see how far they warm but they seem to think Nina is rapidly weakening according the the current facts versus a forecast of no likely ENSO impacts..

Yes Paul there is a big difference between fact versus forecast.

It's been obvious for a while that it has to be a weakening with what's been going on down below in the subsurface. It's that plain and simple. I am not to sure why some people think differently. (Not you here)

I guess it's a somewhat misunderstood phenomenon.

Here's a somewhat bad analogy and it's backwards but it's the best I can come up with for right now. The source of the SST anomaly above is mostly related to what's below. Lets call it the feeder pool.

Let's say you have a 5 gallon container of cold water in your refrigerator and it has a little hole in it. It's coming out at a pretty good rate and it's making it's way onto your kitchen floor.

The water is going to seem awfully cold to you if you walked in it since it's much cooler than the room temperature but it will warm up after a while after it interacts with all of the warmer variables around..air temperature...floor etc..(That is unless you have a house colder than the fridge of course.)

But it will not warm up that quickly if the water is still leaking out of the container and into the puddle on your floor. The cooler replenishment will keep it staying rather cool for a while. That is until the container finally empties. Then the puddle warms up.

Well a warmer subsurface wave has been advancing eastward for the past month or more. This is right below the surface waters that are used to say whether an El Nino or La Nina is present. Or neutral for that matter.

So the cooler anomaly , of 1-2 degrees, has been overtaken by the 1/2- 1 degree warmer anomaly. So it's only a matter of time before the cold water container is emptied and the warm water container is filled.

There is still some upwelling off of the coast of South America but this is different and it will not support a La Nina.


Jim

[MiamiensisWx]

Oh... OK! Thanks, Jim, for the information. What do you think about the current atmospheric patterns I mentioned above? How do you think solar weather might influence it now and over the coming months, and how neutral conditions might mix with it?

[cycloneye]

POAMA 2 of May update



Without question it's definite that when the peak of the season arrives in August Neutral ENSO will be dominating the equatorial Pacific as the POAMA model shows.

[cycloneye]

BOM 3rd of May ENSO Update



Above is the latest update from the Aussies which confirms that Neutral ENSO has returned to the Pacific.Now let's wait for the monthly NOAA update of ENSO which will be released on the 11th.I guess that they will be at Neutral too going away from the Weak La Nina they forecasted in the April update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... _advisory/

[cycloneye]

TAO Graphic



Almost the blue colors are gone and the data shows Neutral conditions.

[milankovitch]

Latest SST anomalies show little sign of much of a Kelvin Wave progressing eastward. Also, waters around Alaska and the Pacific Northwest remain rather typical of La Nina to neutral/coolish conditions.

You're better off looking at an image like this to try and detect a Kelvin wave. The dashed lines are downwelling Kelvin waves and the dotted lines are upwelling Kelvin waves. As you can see there is a downwelling Kelvin wave approaching the east. This will put an end to that pesky recent cold resurgance.