Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

[HurricaneBill]

Hong Kong has never been hit by a significant typhoon.

Uh, yes it has. On many occasions. In fact, a typhoon that struck Hong Kong in 1906 killed around 10,000 people.

Other destructive typhoons that hit Hong Kong:

Typhoon Mary 1960 (killed 90 in Hong Kong and was nicknamed "Bloody Mary")

Typhoon Wanda 1962 (killed 183 in Hong Kong)

Typhoon Rose 1971 (killed 130 in Hong Kong)

Rose was a midget cyclone and proved the difficulty of storm intensity and satellite estimates. Back in 1971, satellite images were not as detailed as they are now. For some reason, recon was not allowed to fly into Typhoon Rose. I think it was located in a no-fly zone close to Vietnam.

Based on satellite imagery, Rose's intensity was given as around 70 KT. However, as Rose moved closer to Hong Kong, ships caught in the storm indicated sustained winds in the eyewall were much higher, around 125 KT.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 122.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 122.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.5N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.2N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.6N 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.8N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.3N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.2N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.6N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 122.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE REMAINS ORGANIZED AND RADIAL
OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED AS THE STORM TRACKS THROUGH THE SIBUYAN SEA.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//

NNNN

[Coredesat]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 13.0N 122.1E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 200NM

FORECAST
24HF 130900UTC 14.8N 117.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
45HF 140600UTC 16.1N 115.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
69HF 150600UTC 17.4N 113.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT

[Coredesat]

WWPN20 KNES 120935
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT VIS/IRDAY WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
.
MAY 12 2006 0833Z
.
13.0N 122.1E T4.5/5.0/W0.5/06HRS CHANCHU (02W)
.
PAST POSITIONS...12.6N 123.9E 11/2033Z IRNIGHT
11.9N 126.6E 11/O833Z IRDAY/VIS
.
REMARKS....VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDING OF 1.5 YIELDING DT OF
4.5. LESS ORGANIZATION THAN 6 HORUS AGO WHEN A SMALL EYE COULD
BE SEEN IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 12/1600Z.

[Windspeed]

Latest SSMI shows a larger eyewall wrapping around and what appears to be strengthening as it is making another landfall. I don't know if it will reach Cat 2 until it's off the west coast ... probably will maintain Cat 1 until moving off the coast in about 12 hours. The storm will then be in a favorable environment for rapid intensification.

[Scorpion]

Looks like a good eyewall forming. Definitely could be a STY in the next few days IMO.

[wc is my initials]

Hong Kong never really get hits because it is such a small place...
Its a good thing if it gets just tropical storm winds or something, that means no school and nothing really gets damaged

[benny]

Latest SSMI shows a larger eyewall wrapping around and what appears to be strengthening as it is making another landfall. I don't know if it will reach Cat 2 until it's off the west coast ... probably will maintain Cat 1 until moving off the coast in about 12 hours. The storm will then be in a favorable environment for rapid intensification.

ooooh.. that looks nice.. after it leaves the islands it might explode. a few days ago the ECMWF was forecasting it to deepen to 938 mb (!!!) in the South China Sea before striking China. I haven't been paying much attention but I will take a look today..

[HURAKAN]

12/0233 UTC 12.8N 123.2E T5.0/5.0 CHANCHU -- West Pacific Ocean

[HurricaneHunter914]

I don't beleive it. According to http://www.wunderground.com Chanchu is strengthening over the Philippines.

[HURAKAN]

85 knots and going up. I think we have in our hand the first major typhoon of the season and the second major tropical cyclone of the Northern Hemisphere!

[Weatherfreak000]

No doubt now, it's a typhoon

[CHRISTY]

Guys this is going to be a Monster....
Look at this IR image!

[cycloneye]

Latest graphic forecast



Hong Kong is in front of the forecast track.

SUBJ: TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 016
WTPN31 PGTW 121500
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 12.9N 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 13.3N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 13.6N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.0N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.4N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.9N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.9N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.5N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 121.3E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

12/1433 UTC 13.1N 121.6E T5.0/5.0 CHANCHU -- West Pacific Ocean

[senorpepr]

Officially it's at 63KT again while PAGASA is saying 59KT. (Both 1-min winds)


WTPQ20 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0601 CHANCHU (0601)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 13.0N 121.5E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 220NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 131500UTC 14.5N 118.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
45HF 141200UTC 14.8N 115.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
69HF 151200UTC 16.5N 113.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT =

Severe Weather Bulletin Number THIRTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "CALOY" {CHANCHU}
Issued at 10:45 p.m., Friday, 12 May 2006 Tropical Storm "CALOY" has tracked westward during the past six hours and is now in the vicinity of Socorro, Oriental Mindoro.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 40 kms south southwest of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro
Coordinates: 13.1°N, 121.4°E
Strength: maximum sustained winds of 95 kph near the center and
gustiness of up to 120 kph
Movement: west northwest at 19 kph
Forecast Positions / Outlook: Tonight:
expected to cross Mindoro Provinces
Saturday evening:
370 kms west northwest of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro or
330 kms west southwest of Metro Manila
Sunday evening:
640 kms west southwest of Dagupan City

[MiamiensisWx]

Looking quite good!

[MiamiensisWx]

Well-organized bands and eyewall!

[CHRISTY]

Looks like hongkong might be in the path of this typhoon....

[SouthFloridawx]

Oh my word that forecast is calling for 140KTS.