Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4

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Dr. Jonah Rainwater
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#521 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Sun May 14, 2006 12:32 am

Typhoon Chanchu will almost certainly kill dozens, if not hundreds, of people. I hope the Chinese government sees the terrible disaster brewing in the South China Sea and takes steps to evacuate people from at-risk areas. Disaster is practically certain........in inland China. Freshwater flooding from dying typhoons repeatedly kills many people in China. The threat to Hong Kong, while real, is remote. The threat to the rural areas of inland China is the real story of Chanchu.

Why some people (actually, the same 3 or 4 people bantering over and over again) only choose to focus on that skinny black line and forecast landfall intensity is beyond me. This isn't really about Hong Kong super disaster scenarios.
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#522 Postby stormtruth » Sun May 14, 2006 12:46 am

Chanchu is a Cat 2 according to this 105mph -> http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/wp ... track.html

expected to stregthen to 125kt (143mph) later.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/wp ... ublic.html
Last edited by stormtruth on Sun May 14, 2006 12:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#523 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 14, 2006 12:47 am

That is based on the JTWC...
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HurricaneBill
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#524 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun May 14, 2006 2:42 am

Dr. Jonah Rainwater wrote:Typhoon Chanchu will almost certainly kill dozens, if not hundreds, of people. I hope the Chinese government sees the terrible disaster brewing in the South China Sea and takes steps to evacuate people from at-risk areas. Disaster is practically certain........in inland China. Freshwater flooding from dying typhoons repeatedly kills many people in China. The threat to Hong Kong, while real, is remote. The threat to the rural areas of inland China is the real story of Chanchu.

Why some people (actually, the same 3 or 4 people bantering over and over again) only choose to focus on that skinny black line and forecast landfall intensity is beyond me. This isn't really about Hong Kong super disaster scenarios.


I agree. China has sustained many destructive typhoons in the past couple of decades.

Usually the costliest typhoons are those that hit Japan or China.

China's "billion-dollar" typhoons:

1990 Typhoon Abe $1.4 billion

1994 Super Typhoon Fred $1.6 billion

1996 Super Typhoon Herb $5.8 billion

1996 Super Typhoon Sally $1.5 billion

1997 Super Typhoon Winnie $2.6 billion

2004 Typhoon Rananim $2.2 billion

2005 Typhoon Talim $1.9 billion
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James
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#525 Postby James » Sun May 14, 2006 3:53 am

I know it's not official, but the JTWC has just upped Chanchu to a 100kt typhoon and calls for it to make landfall around the region of 135kts.
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#526 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 14, 2006 4:12 am

Looks like a real eye has formed...In the deep convection is starting to incircle it...Its strengthing now.
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#527 Postby Meso » Sun May 14, 2006 4:29 am

Yeah, starting to look real good
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#528 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 14, 2006 4:44 am

WOW some of the latest satellite show it forming a clear eye...With the deep convection wraping around.
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#529 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 14, 2006 4:46 am

WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 13.9N 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 116.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.2N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.1N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.5N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.0N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.1N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.2N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 26.7N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 116.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 34
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//

NNNN
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#530 Postby Jam151 » Sun May 14, 2006 5:06 am

so much for overreacting. Satellites clearly suggest Chanchu is at or very close to Category 3 status, and the JTWC forecast says the rest. There are still several factors that can knock down the intensity some within 24 hours of landfall but a big hit is inevitable. The 00Z models still suggest that the Hong Kong area at highest risk.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#531 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 14, 2006 5:13 am

Deep convection now over 85 percent around the eye. Expect the eye to clear out over the next 24 hours...In expect 115 knots by 12 hours...
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#532 Postby Coredesat » Sun May 14, 2006 5:29 am

14/0833 UTC 13.9N 116.3E T5.5/5.5 CHANCHU
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#533 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 14, 2006 5:48 am

5.5=100 knots! With the deep convection now almost all most all the way around and with a clearing eye. Expect that to rise!
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#534 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 14, 2006 5:51 am

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CHRISTY

#535 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 14, 2006 6:20 am

Chanchu is going to really take of now! :eek: :eek: :eek:

Image
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#536 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun May 14, 2006 6:39 am

there is now a complete CDO around the eye of Chanchu for the 1st time Ive seen...It looks like the eye is going to fog up every now and then to continue to organize...but it doesnt look like it will fully close up
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#537 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun May 14, 2006 6:41 am

stormtruth wrote:Chanchu is a Cat 2 according to this 105mph -> http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/wp ... track.html

expected to stregthen to 125kt (143mph) later.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/wp ... ublic.html



They actually have it at 115mph now...they went 00,06,and 00...last time i checked they dont skip 18hrs
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#538 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sun May 14, 2006 6:42 am

I'm thinking a Supertyphoon in HONG KONG in 3 days????????????????? :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#539 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun May 14, 2006 6:43 am

Its 115 mph now...Expect that to go way up. They forecast 135 knots=155 mph.
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#540 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sun May 14, 2006 6:43 am

remember a SUPERTYPHHON HAS 150mph winds not 160 so a SUPERTYPHOON at cat.4 and still that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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