Typhoon Chanchu will almost certainly kill dozens, if not hundreds, of people. I hope the Chinese government sees the terrible disaster brewing in the South China Sea and takes steps to evacuate people from at-risk areas. Disaster is practically certain........in inland China. Freshwater flooding from dying typhoons repeatedly kills many people in China. The threat to Hong Kong, while real, is remote. The threat to the rural areas of inland China is the real story of Chanchu.
Why some people (actually, the same 3 or 4 people bantering over and over again) only choose to focus on that skinny black line and forecast landfall intensity is beyond me. This isn't really about Hong Kong super disaster scenarios.
Super Typhoon Chanchu - Cat. 4
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Dr. Jonah Rainwater
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stormtruth
- Category 2
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Chanchu is a Cat 2 according to this 105mph -> http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/wp ... track.html
expected to stregthen to 125kt (143mph) later.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/wp ... ublic.html
expected to stregthen to 125kt (143mph) later.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/wp ... ublic.html
Last edited by stormtruth on Sun May 14, 2006 12:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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HurricaneBill
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Dr. Jonah Rainwater wrote:Typhoon Chanchu will almost certainly kill dozens, if not hundreds, of people. I hope the Chinese government sees the terrible disaster brewing in the South China Sea and takes steps to evacuate people from at-risk areas. Disaster is practically certain........in inland China. Freshwater flooding from dying typhoons repeatedly kills many people in China. The threat to Hong Kong, while real, is remote. The threat to the rural areas of inland China is the real story of Chanchu.
Why some people (actually, the same 3 or 4 people bantering over and over again) only choose to focus on that skinny black line and forecast landfall intensity is beyond me. This isn't really about Hong Kong super disaster scenarios.
I agree. China has sustained many destructive typhoons in the past couple of decades.
Usually the costliest typhoons are those that hit Japan or China.
China's "billion-dollar" typhoons:
1990 Typhoon Abe $1.4 billion
1994 Super Typhoon Fred $1.6 billion
1996 Super Typhoon Herb $5.8 billion
1996 Super Typhoon Sally $1.5 billion
1997 Super Typhoon Winnie $2.6 billion
2004 Typhoon Rananim $2.2 billion
2005 Typhoon Talim $1.9 billion
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 13.9N 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 116.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.2N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.1N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.5N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.0N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.1N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.2N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 26.7N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 116.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 34
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 02W (CHANCHU) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 13.9N 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 116.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.2N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.1N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.5N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.0N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.1N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.2N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 26.7N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 116.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (CHANCHU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 34
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN
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so much for overreacting. Satellites clearly suggest Chanchu is at or very close to Category 3 status, and the JTWC forecast says the rest. There are still several factors that can knock down the intensity some within 24 hours of landfall but a big hit is inevitable. The 00Z models still suggest that the Hong Kong area at highest risk.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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cheezyWXguy
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cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
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- Location: Dallas, TX
stormtruth wrote:Chanchu is a Cat 2 according to this 105mph -> http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/wp ... track.html
expected to stregthen to 125kt (143mph) later.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/wp ... ublic.html
They actually have it at 115mph now...they went 00,06,and 00...last time i checked they dont skip 18hrs
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hurricanefloyd5
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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hurricanefloyd5
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