Trop./subtropical formation in Caribbean in coming weeks #2

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MiamiensisWx

Trop./subtropical formation in Caribbean in coming weeks #2

#1 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri May 19, 2006 10:19 am

Here is the link to the first original thread which reached ten pages...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=84438

Continue the discussion here!

:D :D :D :D
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#2 Postby A1A » Fri May 19, 2006 10:47 am

Why do a new one? I thoroughly enjoyed the 90+ pages following Katrina last year.
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MiamiensisWx

#3 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri May 19, 2006 11:05 am

It's part of the new rule on Storm2K, A1A. Once a thread reaches ten pages, a new thread needs to be started on the original topic while the original thread is locked.
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#4 Postby Stratusxpeye » Fri May 19, 2006 11:09 am

A1A wrote:Why do a new one? I thoroughly enjoyed the 90+ pages following Katrina last year.


Not sure if this was sarcasticlly stated but I do agree. I understand the reasons for the board enforcing this rule but I do like it much better when the thread is all in one. I would limit to around 25 pages or so. imo. But i understand the need for it.
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#5 Postby A1A » Fri May 19, 2006 11:28 am

Yeah my preference is to keep it all packed in one.
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#6 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri May 19, 2006 11:35 am

i'd say 25 pages is good
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 19, 2006 2:52 pm

12z GFS at 384 hours

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

16 days out.Now let's follow every 12z and 00z runs from now on to see if this model is consistent showing that low pressure in the Western Caribbean or it fades.
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#8 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri May 19, 2006 2:59 pm

16 days should not even be used for trends. The system of PDEs cannot be solved with that level of accuracy that far out numerically, too much error comes into play.

Model data should really only be considered about 5-7 days in advance
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#9 Postby benny » Fri May 19, 2006 3:08 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:16 days should not even be used for trends. The system of PDEs cannot be solved with that level of accuracy that far out numerically, too much error comes into play.

Model data should really only be considered about 5-7 days in advance


Good luck convincing the board of that (even though you are right!) :)
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#10 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri May 19, 2006 3:08 pm

That far out one has to wonder if it is picking up that Wave just coming off Africa.

But Derek is right, I'd give it less than a 5% chance that anything comes of it.
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#11 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri May 19, 2006 3:12 pm

The only problem with this thread, is it absolutely has nothing to do with the original. That was in discussion about a threat for the latter part of this week, of which we are at.

You might as well make a sticky with a topic such as this, being that "in the coming weeks" there is always potential in the Atlantic basin now that we are approaching hurricane season.
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CHRISTY

#12 Postby CHRISTY » Fri May 19, 2006 3:34 pm

nothing out there now thats for sure....
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#13 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Fri May 19, 2006 3:57 pm

GFS has something June 4th in the southeast Gulf. But the GFS that far out is like throwing darts at a bulls eye on a 100 foot wall.
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#14 Postby hurricanetrack » Fri May 19, 2006 4:06 pm

I wonder though if these indications of TC formation, which the GFS has shown a lot of this month way out in time, are symptoms that the atmosphere will WANT to produce TCs once we get in to June? In other words, while there certainly might not be a TC on day 16 where the GFS says it is, the GFS is "seeing" something to make it "think" that. So- one might get curious as to how things will look in the western Basin sometime during the first week of June. But then again- GFS or not, we would be looking anyway, right? These storms the GFS spins up just makes it all that more interesting, I guess.
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#15 Postby KatDaddy » Fri May 19, 2006 4:23 pm

Remember Joe B says Texas hit in the June-July timeframe. The models are showing the development of a Texas cane

JK everyone. Someone has to fly off the handle in the pre-season days. :)
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#16 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Fri May 19, 2006 4:41 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:I wonder though if these indications of TC formation, which the GFS has shown a lot of this month way out in time, are symptoms that the atmosphere will WANT to produce TCs once we get in to June? In other words, while there certainly might not be a TC on day 16 where the GFS says it is, the GFS is "seeing" something to make it "think" that. So- one might get curious as to how things will look in the western Basin sometime during the first week of June. But then again- GFS or not, we would be looking anyway, right? These storms the GFS spins up just makes it all that more interesting, I guess.
Actually the GFS has been a little better the last few Years on Tropical development. It hinted several times last year of something developing days in advance and 90% of the time something would develop.
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#17 Postby fci » Fri May 19, 2006 5:32 pm

This came from my Home Textiles Today News Brief:

Planalytics warns of wet Memorial Day in the south

Wayne, Pa. – Forecasting agency Planalytics cautioned that today’s conditions are becoming ripe for tropical storm development that could impact Florida and Texas during the Memorial Day weekend.

“We expect that any hint of tropical storm activity will trigger intense media coverage which will result in a strong than normal consumer response,” the company reported in today’s Impact Alert.

Planalytics sees a strong warming trend from the upper Midwest to New England, and expects most parts of the country to be warm and pleasant during the busy shopping weekend. Overall, the weather “should spur a return to positive consumer demand for spring and, in some cases, summer product activities.”


I thought it was crazy until I saw that there have already been threads on possible development.

I must admit that I had not been to S2K Tropics for several days now.
It's a little too early to rev up the "Tropics watching engine"!! :eek:
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#18 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri May 19, 2006 5:53 pm

I think the June 4th GFS scenario is not all that far-fetched. Looking at the intensity of these early season waves, I would in no way be surprised if one of them decided to develop in the WARM NW Caribbean during the first half of June.
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CHRISTY

#19 Postby CHRISTY » Fri May 19, 2006 6:44 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I think the June 4th GFS scenario is not all that far-fetched. Looking at the intensity of these early season waves, I would in no way be surprised if one of them decided to develop in the WARM NW Caribbean during the first half of June.


i would have to say i agree with u on something developing in early june,but iam still kinda leaning towards mid june early july development.
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#20 Postby TampaFl » Sat May 20, 2006 6:51 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I think the June 4th GFS scenario is not all that far-fetched. Looking at the intensity of these early season waves, I would in no way be surprised if one of them decided to develop in the WARM NW Caribbean during the first half of June.




:eek: :eek: :eek: Though a nice large disorganized tropical depression affecting West Central Florida with some much needed rainfall would be nice. :D


Robert 8-)
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