Trop./subtropical formation in Caribbean in coming weeks #2

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the link to the first original thread which reached ten pages...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=84438

Continue the discussion here!

[A1A]

Why do a new one? I thoroughly enjoyed the 90+ pages following Katrina last year.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's part of the new rule on Storm2K, A1A. Once a thread reaches ten pages, a new thread needs to be started on the original topic while the original thread is locked.

[Stratusxpeye]

Why do a new one? I thoroughly enjoyed the 90+ pages following Katrina last year.

Not sure if this was sarcasticlly stated but I do agree. I understand the reasons for the board enforcing this rule but I do like it much better when the thread is all in one. I would limit to around 25 pages or so. imo. But i understand the need for it.

[A1A]

Yeah my preference is to keep it all packed in one.

[JonathanBelles]

i'd say 25 pages is good

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 384 hours



16 days out.Now let's follow every 12z and 00z runs from now on to see if this model is consistent showing that low pressure in the Western Caribbean or it fades.

[Derek Ortt]

16 days should not even be used for trends. The system of PDEs cannot be solved with that level of accuracy that far out numerically, too much error comes into play.

Model data should really only be considered about 5-7 days in advance

[benny]

16 days should not even be used for trends. The system of PDEs cannot be solved with that level of accuracy that far out numerically, too much error comes into play.

Model data should really only be considered about 5-7 days in advance

Good luck convincing the board of that (even though you are right!)

[Dean4Storms]

That far out one has to wonder if it is picking up that Wave just coming off Africa.

But Derek is right, I'd give it less than a 5% chance that anything comes of it.

[Stratosphere747]

The only problem with this thread, is it absolutely has nothing to do with the original. That was in discussion about a threat for the latter part of this week, of which we are at.

You might as well make a sticky with a topic such as this, being that "in the coming weeks" there is always potential in the Atlantic basin now that we are approaching hurricane season.

[CHRISTY]

nothing out there now thats for sure....

[KFDM Meteorologist]

GFS has something June 4th in the southeast Gulf. But the GFS that far out is like throwing darts at a bulls eye on a 100 foot wall.

[hurricanetrack]

I wonder though if these indications of TC formation, which the GFS has shown a lot of this month way out in time, are symptoms that the atmosphere will WANT to produce TCs once we get in to June? In other words, while there certainly might not be a TC on day 16 where the GFS says it is, the GFS is "seeing" something to make it "think" that. So- one might get curious as to how things will look in the western Basin sometime during the first week of June. But then again- GFS or not, we would be looking anyway, right? These storms the GFS spins up just makes it all that more interesting, I guess.

[KatDaddy]

Remember Joe B says Texas hit in the June-July timeframe. The models are showing the development of a Texas cane

JK everyone. Someone has to fly off the handle in the pre-season days.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I wonder though if these indications of TC formation, which the GFS has shown a lot of this month way out in time, are symptoms that the atmosphere will WANT to produce TCs once we get in to June? In other words, while there certainly might not be a TC on day 16 where the GFS says it is, the GFS is "seeing" something to make it "think" that. So- one might get curious as to how things will look in the western Basin sometime during the first week of June. But then again- GFS or not, we would be looking anyway, right? These storms the GFS spins up just makes it all that more interesting, I guess.

Actually the GFS has been a little better the last few Years on Tropical development. It hinted several times last year of something developing days in advance and 90% of the time something would develop.

[fci]

This came from my Home Textiles Today News Brief:

Planalytics warns of wet Memorial Day in the south

Wayne, Pa. – Forecasting agency Planalytics cautioned that today’s conditions are becoming ripe for tropical storm development that could impact Florida and Texas during the Memorial Day weekend.

“We expect that any hint of tropical storm activity will trigger intense media coverage which will result in a strong than normal consumer response,” the company reported in today’s Impact Alert.

Planalytics sees a strong warming trend from the upper Midwest to New England, and expects most parts of the country to be warm and pleasant during the busy shopping weekend. Overall, the weather “should spur a return to positive consumer demand for spring and, in some cases, summer product activities.”

I thought it was crazy until I saw that there have already been threads on possible development.

I must admit that I had not been to S2K Tropics for several days now.
It's a little too early to rev up the "Tropics watching engine"!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the June 4th GFS scenario is not all that far-fetched. Looking at the intensity of these early season waves, I would in no way be surprised if one of them decided to develop in the WARM NW Caribbean during the first half of June.

[CHRISTY]

I think the June 4th GFS scenario is not all that far-fetched. Looking at the intensity of these early season waves, I would in no way be surprised if one of them decided to develop in the WARM NW Caribbean during the first half of June.

i would have to say i agree with u on something developing in early june,but iam still kinda leaning towards mid june early july development.

[TampaFl]

I think the June 4th GFS scenario is not all that far-fetched. Looking at the intensity of these early season waves, I would in no way be surprised if one of them decided to develop in the WARM NW Caribbean during the first half of June.

Though a nice large disorganized tropical depression affecting West Central Florida with some much needed rainfall would be nice.


Robert