Closed Low forming East Of Port Mansfield

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MiamiensisWx

#181 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue May 30, 2006 6:05 pm

CHRISTY wrote:iam afraid u are correct there is some slight potential here but the environment around it is not very favorable.I think the convection is flareing up because of the upper level low near by.


One of the bigger factors against significant - if any - development is the fact that it is still associated with a trough. Features like this that don't develop because of trough association is VERY frequent this time of year. Besides, when the season heats up, we will all (most likely) regret that we were eager for development (unless, of course, it is a fun fish).
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MiamiensisWx

#182 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue May 30, 2006 6:05 pm

We're at ten pages!
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#183 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 30, 2006 6:05 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:this thread is about to be locked


17 replies and locked.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue May 30, 2006 6:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#184 Postby skysummit » Tue May 30, 2006 6:06 pm

We need to give it another day or so. The GFS shows most of the moisture going into Texas as early as tomorrow. If some convection does stay over the open waters, the shear is supposed to relax some in the next two days....still something to watch, but most likely that'll be all.
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#185 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue May 30, 2006 6:10 pm

skysummit wrote:We need to give it another day or so. The GFS shows most of the moisture going into Texas as early as tomorrow. If some convection does stay over the open waters, the shear is supposed to relax some in the next two days....still something to watch, but most likely that'll be all.


I agree. You can't just jump on development without looking at the synoptics and making a good conclusion.
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CHRISTY

#186 Postby CHRISTY » Tue May 30, 2006 6:10 pm

tgenius wrote:If I was a betting man.. South FL (Broward Southward) will NOT get a storm this year, I just can't fathom 3 hits in 2 years, especially considering we basically went 12 yrs between hurricanes down here (Andrew in 92, until the 04 storms) but just my 2c


think about this way i was in andrew and i lost my entire roof and my community looked like a bomb had fallen....it has been 14 years since weve seen a major in this area threw the 1940's and the 1960's southflorida got hit many times by major hurricanes,my thinking is we maybe returning to a similar pattern.
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#187 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue May 30, 2006 6:12 pm

CHRISTY, let's focus on the system that is the focus of this topic. Thanks!
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Scorpion

#188 Postby Scorpion » Tue May 30, 2006 6:12 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Doesn't look as good as before; even then, it still had rather warmish cloudtops, a bit more than Allison or Grace ever had at many points. While slight development potential is there, I don't think the environment or synoptics favor it that much, as I have stated before, even though a circulation is almost certainly present.


You're always negative about development :(
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#189 Postby skysummit » Tue May 30, 2006 6:13 pm

Scorpion wrote:
CapeVerdeWave wrote:Doesn't look as good as before; even then, it still had rather warmish cloudtops, a bit more than Allison or Grace ever had at many points. While slight development potential is there, I don't think the environment or synoptics favor it that much, as I have stated before, even though a circulation is almost certainly present.


You're always negative about development :(


He's not being negative on the development. He's simply analyzing the situation.
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#190 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue May 30, 2006 6:14 pm

Scorpion wrote:You're always negative about development :(


No, I am not. However, I am being negative about development if you want a Category Five to hit you.

Sorry for sounding mean, but that statement is simply not true.
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Rainband

#191 Postby Rainband » Tue May 30, 2006 6:14 pm

I agree. Local met that covered rita, Dennis phillips ,said it's too early for a system to form from the mid levels and that what this seems to be. Still rain is the last thing some area's of the Lone star state need :(
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#192 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 30, 2006 6:14 pm

Scorpion wrote:
CapeVerdeWave wrote:Doesn't look as good as before; even then, it still had rather warmish cloudtops, a bit more than Allison or Grace ever had at many points. While slight development potential is there, I don't think the environment or synoptics favor it that much, as I have stated before, even though a circulation is almost certainly present.


You're always negative about development :(


Hey,He is entitled to his opinion as you are entitled about yours.
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#193 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue May 30, 2006 6:15 pm

skysummit wrote:He's not being negative on the development. He's simply analyzing the situation.


I agree. That's all I am doing. That's all.
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#194 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Tue May 30, 2006 6:15 pm

closer and closer to a lock down of this thread
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MiamiensisWx

#195 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue May 30, 2006 6:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:Hey,He is entitled to his opinion as you are entitled about yours.


I agree, Luis!
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CHRISTY

#196 Postby CHRISTY » Tue May 30, 2006 6:16 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:CHRISTY, let's focus on the system that is the focus of this topic. Thanks!


there will probably be no development...this convection is probably being enhanced by what seems to be an upper level low near the vacinity.
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Scorpion

#197 Postby Scorpion » Tue May 30, 2006 6:16 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:closer and closer to a lock down of this thread


Is this post necessary?
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MiamiensisWx

#198 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue May 30, 2006 6:17 pm

CHRISTY wrote:there will probably be no development...this convection is probably being enhanced by what seems to be an upper level low near the vacinity.


I agree, especially since it's mostly associated with frontal troughiness.
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CHRISTY

#199 Postby CHRISTY » Tue May 30, 2006 6:18 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:there will probably be no development...this convection is probably being enhanced by what seems to be an upper level low near the vacinity.


I agree, especially since it's mostly associated with frontal troughiness.


iam glad we agree capeverdewave.... :wink:
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#200 Postby skysummit » Tue May 30, 2006 6:18 pm

Ok...so this is what??? the 3rd blob of convection in nearly the same area in the past 3 weeks? Sooner or later one of these will develop. This is just giving us a little pre-season practice.
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