Closed Low forming East Of Port Mansfield

[MiamiensisWx]

iam afraid u are correct there is some slight potential here but the environment around it is not very favorable.I think the convection is flareing up because of the upper level low near by.

One of the bigger factors against significant - if any - development is the fact that it is still associated with a trough. Features like this that don't develop because of trough association is VERY frequent this time of year. Besides, when the season heats up, we will all (most likely) regret that we were eager for development (unless, of course, it is a fun fish).

[MiamiensisWx]

We're at ten pages!

[cycloneye]

this thread is about to be locked

17 replies and locked.

[skysummit]

We need to give it another day or so. The GFS shows most of the moisture going into Texas as early as tomorrow. If some convection does stay over the open waters, the shear is supposed to relax some in the next two days....still something to watch, but most likely that'll be all.

[MiamiensisWx]

We need to give it another day or so. The GFS shows most of the moisture going into Texas as early as tomorrow. If some convection does stay over the open waters, the shear is supposed to relax some in the next two days....still something to watch, but most likely that'll be all.

I agree. You can't just jump on development without looking at the synoptics and making a good conclusion.

[CHRISTY]

If I was a betting man.. South FL (Broward Southward) will NOT get a storm this year, I just can't fathom 3 hits in 2 years, especially considering we basically went 12 yrs between hurricanes down here (Andrew in 92, until the 04 storms) but just my 2c

think about this way i was in andrew and i lost my entire roof and my community looked like a bomb had fallen....it has been 14 years since weve seen a major in this area threw the 1940's and the 1960's southflorida got hit many times by major hurricanes,my thinking is we maybe returning to a similar pattern.

[MiamiensisWx]

CHRISTY, let's focus on the system that is the focus of this topic. Thanks!

[Scorpion]

Doesn't look as good as before; even then, it still had rather warmish cloudtops, a bit more than Allison or Grace ever had at many points. While slight development potential is there, I don't think the environment or synoptics favor it that much, as I have stated before, even though a circulation is almost certainly present.

You're always negative about development

[skysummit]

Doesn't look as good as before; even then, it still had rather warmish cloudtops, a bit more than Allison or Grace ever had at many points. While slight development potential is there, I don't think the environment or synoptics favor it that much, as I have stated before, even though a circulation is almost certainly present.

You're always negative about development

He's not being negative on the development. He's simply analyzing the situation.

[MiamiensisWx]

You're always negative about development

No, I am not. However, I am being negative about development if you want a Category Five to hit you.

Sorry for sounding mean, but that statement is simply not true.

[Rainband]

I agree. Local met that covered rita, Dennis phillips ,said it's too early for a system to form from the mid levels and that what this seems to be. Still rain is the last thing some area's of the Lone star state need

[cycloneye]

Doesn't look as good as before; even then, it still had rather warmish cloudtops, a bit more than Allison or Grace ever had at many points. While slight development potential is there, I don't think the environment or synoptics favor it that much, as I have stated before, even though a circulation is almost certainly present.

You're always negative about development

Hey,He is entitled to his opinion as you are entitled about yours.

[MiamiensisWx]

He's not being negative on the development. He's simply analyzing the situation.

I agree. That's all I am doing. That's all.

[hurricanefloyd5]

closer and closer to a lock down of this thread

[MiamiensisWx]

Hey,He is entitled to his opinion as you are entitled about yours.

I agree, Luis!

[CHRISTY]

CHRISTY, let's focus on the system that is the focus of this topic. Thanks!

there will probably be no development...this convection is probably being enhanced by what seems to be an upper level low near the vacinity.

[Scorpion]

closer and closer to a lock down of this thread

Is this post necessary?

[MiamiensisWx]

there will probably be no development...this convection is probably being enhanced by what seems to be an upper level low near the vacinity.

I agree, especially since it's mostly associated with frontal troughiness.

[CHRISTY]

there will probably be no development...this convection is probably being enhanced by what seems to be an upper level low near the vacinity.

I agree, especially since it's mostly associated with frontal troughiness.

iam glad we agree capeverdewave....

[skysummit]

Ok...so this is what??? the 3rd blob of convection in nearly the same area in the past 3 weeks? Sooner or later one of these will develop. This is just giving us a little pre-season practice.