GFS June 4 - 5 low crossing Cuba

[CHRISTY]

Still Flareing up....

[JonathanBelles]

any rotation yet?

[CHRISTY]

The GFS is forcasting some pretty good intensity in around 60 hours will it happen?not sure right now.

850mb vorticity...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_85v_060l.gif

Here is the surface map...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_060l.gif

[JonathanBelles]

that almost looks like the path charley took

[SouthFloridawx]

It's a good thing that the ridge is being eroded from the trough along the east coast.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

COOL lets get ready to track!!!

[Taffy]

Does the weakening ridge mean it will steer clear of Florida.?

[Stratusxpeye]

Does the weakening ridge mean it will steer clear of Florida.?

Should play out this way. If it devolps should move northeast more easterly than anything over cuba and some of the bahams than most likely just out to sea in the atlantic.

[terstorm1012]

I noticed this on several models yesterday but thought it was frontal. is it indeed tropical? (the future storm I mean)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it has a fair chance at develoving. That area of convection south of Jamica needs watching.

[SouthFloridawx]

Current Steering Layers at 700-850mb.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Currently it would take it out into the atlantic but, not before dumping some serious rain over cuba.

[rjgator]

The GFS has been pretty consistent with showing a low develop in the SW Caribbean and pass over Cuba. I think it was about a week ago it was showing this on a 8 or 10 day prediction. Conditions look to be getting worse for development in the next few days but who knows.

[JonathanBelles]

possible st. pete rain??

[Weatherfreak000]

The convection centered in the Southern Carribean has been firing up pretty nicely, and conditions seem to be prime there for activity. Not to mention what looks like another rotation is heading towards it which may help fuel the area. I'd say this looks pretty good.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wahooo lets enjoy it has long as it doe's not turn into a monster. Lets track!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it has a very good chance.

[greels]

"Not before dumping some serious rain on Cuba"...

Hmm....since we are in such close proximity to Cuba, this is beginning to sound "not good" for our tiny islands here in the T&C.....

Please correct me if I am wrong......
Gretchen

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Heavy rains and down pours are normal for any tropical island. Infact most of there rains every year come from tropical distrabances and convection.

[SouthFloridawx]

Being so close to Cuba I would say your chance for some rain are pretty good too.

[scorpdream]

I read that it helps keep the site up to use the thumbnails....but I appreciate it because I am not fortunate enough right now to afford anything but cheap dialup (going home and using the computer is a complete drag from what I have at work), yet I am an avid weather watcher and it helps me to keep up, esp when there is a lot of traffic on the boards....so thanks for the thumbnails....from one of those still having to endure dial-up!