GFS June 4 - 5 low crossing Cuba

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CHRISTY

#61 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Jun 02, 2006 10:49 am

Still Flareing up....

Image
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#62 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Jun 02, 2006 10:58 am

any rotation yet?
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CHRISTY

#63 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Jun 02, 2006 12:47 pm

The GFS is forcasting some pretty good intensity in around 60 hours :eek: :eek: :eek: will it happen?not sure right now.

850mb vorticity...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_85v_060l.gif

Here is the surface map...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_060l.gif
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#64 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Jun 02, 2006 12:59 pm

that almost looks like the path charley took
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#65 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:00 pm

It's a good thing that the ridge is being eroded from the trough along the east coast.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#66 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:08 pm

COOL lets get ready to track!!! :cheesy:
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#67 Postby Taffy » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:11 pm

Does the weakening ridge mean it will steer clear of Florida.?
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#68 Postby Stratusxpeye » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:12 pm

Taffy wrote:Does the weakening ridge mean it will steer clear of Florida.?


Should play out this way. If it devolps should move northeast more easterly than anything over cuba and some of the bahams than most likely just out to sea in the atlantic.
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#69 Postby terstorm1012 » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:16 pm

I noticed this on several models yesterday but thought it was frontal. is it indeed tropical? (the future storm I mean)
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#70 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:16 pm

I think it has a fair chance at develoving. That area of convection south of Jamica needs watching.
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#71 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:18 pm

Current Steering Layers at 700-850mb.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Currently it would take it out into the atlantic but, not before dumping some serious rain over cuba.
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#72 Postby rjgator » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:18 pm

The GFS has been pretty consistent with showing a low develop in the SW Caribbean and pass over Cuba. I think it was about a week ago it was showing this on a 8 or 10 day prediction. Conditions look to be getting worse for development in the next few days but who knows.
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#73 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:27 pm

possible st. pete rain?? :?:
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Weatherfreak000

#74 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:31 pm

The convection centered in the Southern Carribean has been firing up pretty nicely, and conditions seem to be prime there for activity. Not to mention what looks like another rotation is heading towards it which may help fuel the area. I'd say this looks pretty good.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#75 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:32 pm

Wahooo lets enjoy it has long as it doe's not turn into a monster. Lets track!
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#76 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:32 pm

I think it has a very good chance.
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#77 Postby greels » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:36 pm

"Not before dumping some serious rain on Cuba"...

Hmm....since we are in such close proximity to Cuba, this is beginning to sound "not good" for our tiny islands here in the T&C.....

Please correct me if I am wrong......
Gretchen
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#78 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:41 pm

Heavy rains and down pours are normal for any tropical island. Infact most of there rains every year come from tropical distrabances and convection.
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#79 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:43 pm

Being so close to Cuba I would say your chance for some rain are pretty good too.
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Dial-Up...Thanks

#80 Postby scorpdream » Fri Jun 02, 2006 1:54 pm

I read that it helps keep the site up to use the thumbnails....but I appreciate it because I am not fortunate enough right now to afford anything but cheap dialup (going home and using the computer is a complete drag from what I have at work), yet I am an avid weather watcher and it helps me to keep up, esp when there is a lot of traffic on the boards....so thanks for the thumbnails....from one of those still having to endure dial-up!
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