Is the 00Z CMC on crack?

[mobilebay]

The 00Z Canadian develops a potent TC near Belize then shoots it north into the Florida Panhandle.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[mobilebay]

Also the 00Z Nogaps develops a closed low in the same area then moves it into the Western GOM, then dissipates it.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2006060700

[LaPlaceFF]

I see pressures of 992 to 996. What type of TC does that consist of? TD or TS?

[mobilebay]

I see pressures of 992 to 996. What type of TC does that consist of? TD or TS?

Looks like a TS. The GFS is not on board with this though. However, it is forming it where there is already an area of low pressure. Basicly all of central America looks like a broad area of low pressure.

[x-y-no]

Please look at the upper-air pattern. There's no way a tropical cyclone forms in that environment.

[vbhoutex]

Please look at the upper-air pattern. There's no way a tropical cyclone forms in that environment.

Could you explain in a little more detail for those that are new to tropical weather and how it develops please. I.E. what are you seeing in the upper air dynamics that make you think the models are incorrect.

[no advance]

Sure is alot more moisture this morning near Belize. Might be possible even though the ULs are unfavorable. This is TALKIN TRopicS is not it?

[skysummit]

Please look at the upper-air pattern. There's no way a tropical cyclone forms in that environment.

Right now it is, but by the time this does get into the area....72 - 84 hours, the Gulf should be at least marginally favorable.

[Jim Cantore]

The CMC predicted Katrina being a monster when it was still TD 12 and this is the time of year when we look in that area for TC development, all we can do is watch.

[weatherwindow]

just looking at the 72 hour surface forecast from the TAFB...looking like the cmc is jumping on development associated with a trough forecast by the TAFB to drift west from its current position near northeast honduras toward the belize coast and remaining quasi stationary thru the weekend....as per vb's question, the evolution of the current high parked over the yucatan and the bay of honduras will be of great interest...does anyone have a 200mb forecast loop ......rich

[terstorm1012]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation (CMC 250mb forecast loop)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation (CMC 850mb-200mb shear forecast)

[rockyman]

Here's the total track of the 00z CMC:

[wxman57]

The presence of a sharp upper-level trof across the central Gulf this weekend into next week combined with strong west and northwest flow aloft means that tropical cyclone development moving into the Gulf is not very likely. The Canadian model is NOT a tropical model, nor is the NAM. I would tend to discard it.

[ericinmia]

The presence of a sharp upper-level trof across the central Gulf this weekend into next week combined with strong west and northwest flow aloft means that tropical cyclone development moving into the Gulf is not very likely. The Canadian model is NOT a tropical model, nor is the NAM. I would tend to discard it.

what about the WRF and the MM5 and the NOGAPS?

[rockyman]

Hey, Wxman57...thanks for the info! Wouldn't a sharp upper-level trough be a "continental feature" that the CMC would "see" and take into account? I understand that CMC is not good in the deep tropics...but wouldn't it be better in dealing with mid-latitude systems than, say, the NHC suite? I'm trying to understand the upper-level setup better than I did last year (instead of just following the surface low and getting all excited)

[wxman57]

The presence of a sharp upper-level trof across the central Gulf this weekend into next week combined with strong west and northwest flow aloft means that tropical cyclone development moving into the Gulf is not very likely. The Canadian model is NOT a tropical model, nor is the NAM. I would tend to discard it.

what about the WRF and the MM5 and the NOGAPS?

NOGAPS was one of the worst performing models of late. MM5 isn't very good for tropical either. Are you talking HWRF?

I do agree that the low pressures down there have me a bit nervous. Given enough time, I think we will see something form over the next week or two. Probably a sheared TS (if we're lucky), kind of like Arlene last year.

[Scorpion]

What models are good? It seems like the only good globals are the UKMET and GFS.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Here's the total track of the 00z CMC:

Is it just me or does that track look almost identical to Arlene's track.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/archi ... .track.gif

[Scott_inVA]

What models are good? It seems like the only good globals are the UKMET and GFS.

Southergale correctly noted my omitting Rita. I've edited this post to include that event, at bottom. Thanks for the head-up

Gotta follow trends to see.


Top 5 from the "GOM 5's" last year:

EMILY
TPC/NHC
NOGAPS
BAMD
GFS
DSHP

KATRINA
NOGAPS (aviation tracker)
BAMD
UKMET
GFDL
EC
(note: NHC bombed at 72 hrs due to bad forecasting early in the storm cycle. Last 72 hours they were awesome)

WILMA
UKMET
NOGAPS (aviation tracker)
GFS
TPC/NHC
EC


RITA
MRF
GFS
TPC/NHC
GFDL
MRCL (CLIPER wind regression radii)

This exclues less familiar models to the public but you get the idea.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[HurricaneHunter914]

So out of all of those models, The very best would be:

TPC/NHC
NOGAPS
BAMD
GFS
UKMET
EC

This is organized into the amount of times a model did good with a storm. All these models did good with more than one storms.