
Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #6
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1750
- Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
- Location: Nags Head, NC
- Contact:
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1122
- Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:57 pm
- Location: Orange, California
- Contact:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif
Are starting to agree with each other, the GFDL I have no idea what its thinking.
The GFDL initializes the wrong center. The global in which it's embedded sees a storm following a track much like that consensus. 0900 GFDL It's kind of amusing to watch the GFDL stare at the coast of Belize as a TS moves through the Gulf.

0 likes
- Weatherboy1
- Category 5
- Posts: 1189
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
- Location: Jupiter/Sarasota, FL
I'm going to have to go with the Panhandle/Big Bend viewpoint myself. We'll probably get some rain and slight wind down here in SE FL. But I don't think we're looking at a super-sharp hook into S FL at this time. My best guess on intensity: No more than a 60 mph TS at max ... a "training wheels" type storm to help remind people they need to prepare for worse ones in the heart of the season. It looks like it will probably pick up speed once it gets further N in the gulf, so the threat of flooding like you had with Allison in 2001 farther W in the Gulf is pretty small. At least, that's my take right now.
-Mike
-Mike
0 likes
- dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
- fwbbreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 896
- Joined: Sun Mar 21, 2004 10:09 pm
- Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL
another great visible shot and loop. This loop gives a great view of the lower levels.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
fwbbreeze
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
fwbbreeze
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6685
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Weatherboy1 wrote:I'm going to have to go with the Panhandle/Big Bend viewpoint myself. We'll probably get some rain and slight wind down here in SE FL. But I don't think we're looking at a super-sharp hook into S FL at this time. My best guess on intensity: No more than a 60 mph TS at max ... a "training wheels" type storm to help remind people they need to prepare for worse ones in the heart of the season. It looks like it will probably pick up speed once it gets further N in the gulf, so the threat of flooding like you had with Allison in 2001 farther W in the Gulf is pretty small. At least, that's my take right now.
-Mike
I would agree entirely with your post.
0 likes
- jasons2k
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 8247
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
- Location: The Woodlands, TX
I'm still very uncertain on what I think the outcome will be. For one, we still don't have a center, and the area under question today is more offshore than what we were looking at yesterday. A lot of the mets in Texas are saying it will possibly impact South Texas or Mexico, while Mets in FL (judging by what came out of Elgin) seem to think the impacts will be there. I think timing will be essential. If it just meddles around there for a few days it may miss the supposed trough completely. It could get trapped in the central GOM - then it's anyone's guess this far out.
In summary, I'm probably more confused/uncertain today than I was yesterday.
In summary, I'm probably more confused/uncertain today than I was yesterday.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6685
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
wxman57 wrote:cheezywxman wrote:does anyone have an estimate of where the LLC of the system is?
There is no LLC. It's a wave.
It is a GREAT looking wave right now though. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
0 likes
- skysummit
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5305
- Age: 49
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
- Location: Ponchatoula, LA
- Contact:
Stormcenter wrote:wxman57 wrote:cheezywxman wrote:does anyone have an estimate of where the LLC of the system is?
There is no LLC. It's a wave.
It is a GREAT looking wave right now though. IMO![]()
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
One of the BEST I've ever seen.
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 541
- Joined: Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:48 pm
- Location: Florida, Kissimmee/St.CLoud
- brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
meteorologyman wrote:You guys might want to look at this
I posted it in TWO forum
http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png
And once again: Remember though...that is only based on SST's, it doesn't include Dry Air, Wind Shear etc...so no need to majorly stir things up...

Last edited by brunota2003 on Fri Jun 09, 2006 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Not a whole lot of change through 54 hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_054l.gif
It will get into an area of weak steering thereafter with a growing central US ridge...hmm
Also someone asked for a SST plot:
http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/data/ ... t.zoom.gif
If you can get into the server... it shows the loop current very close to the forecast path of the cyclone (roughly) by the models. Of course, shear is a much bigger player and that will control much of the intensity change.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_054l.gif
It will get into an area of weak steering thereafter with a growing central US ridge...hmm
Also someone asked for a SST plot:
http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/data/ ... t.zoom.gif
If you can get into the server... it shows the loop current very close to the forecast path of the cyclone (roughly) by the models. Of course, shear is a much bigger player and that will control much of the intensity change.
Last edited by benny on Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 23021
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Here's a new GARP snapshot of 1K visisble imager with surface obs. Winds in the NW Caribbean are generally in the 10-15 kt range. No evidence of an LLC, just a wave axis:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto3.gif
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto3.gif
0 likes
- stormtruth
- Category 2
- Posts: 651
- Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2006 4:15 pm
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
This system already has TD force winds, lets see if recon finds the same.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: cheezyWXguy, hurricanes1234 and 33 guests