Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #6

[OuterBanker]

Our first POD. Time to break out the cold duck

[curtadams]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

Are starting to agree with each other, the GFDL I have no idea what its thinking.

The GFDL initializes the wrong center. The global in which it's embedded sees a storm following a track much like that consensus. 0900 GFDL It's kind of amusing to watch the GFDL stare at the coast of Belize as a TS moves through the Gulf.

[Weatherboy1]

I'm going to have to go with the Panhandle/Big Bend viewpoint myself. We'll probably get some rain and slight wind down here in SE FL. But I don't think we're looking at a super-sharp hook into S FL at this time. My best guess on intensity: No more than a 60 mph TS at max ... a "training wheels" type storm to help remind people they need to prepare for worse ones in the heart of the season. It looks like it will probably pick up speed once it gets further N in the gulf, so the threat of flooding like you had with Allison in 2001 farther W in the Gulf is pretty small. At least, that's my take right now.

-Mike

[dixiebreeze]

Directly south of NO in 48 hours: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[fwbbreeze]

another great visible shot and loop. This loop gives a great view of the lower levels.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

fwbbreeze

[Stormcenter]

I'm going to have to go with the Panhandle/Big Bend viewpoint myself. We'll probably get some rain and slight wind down here in SE FL. But I don't think we're looking at a super-sharp hook into S FL at this time. My best guess on intensity: No more than a 60 mph TS at max ... a "training wheels" type storm to help remind people they need to prepare for worse ones in the heart of the season. It looks like it will probably pick up speed once it gets further N in the gulf, so the threat of flooding like you had with Allison in 2001 farther W in the Gulf is pretty small. At least, that's my take right now.

-Mike

I would agree entirely with your post.

[wxman57]

does anyone have an estimate of where the LLC of the system is?

There is no LLC. It's a wave.

[jasons2k]

I'm still very uncertain on what I think the outcome will be. For one, we still don't have a center, and the area under question today is more offshore than what we were looking at yesterday. A lot of the mets in Texas are saying it will possibly impact South Texas or Mexico, while Mets in FL (judging by what came out of Elgin) seem to think the impacts will be there. I think timing will be essential. If it just meddles around there for a few days it may miss the supposed trough completely. It could get trapped in the central GOM - then it's anyone's guess this far out.

In summary, I'm probably more confused/uncertain today than I was yesterday.

[Stormcenter]

does anyone have an estimate of where the LLC of the system is?

There is no LLC. It's a wave.

It is a GREAT looking wave right now though. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[skysummit]

does anyone have an estimate of where the LLC of the system is?

There is no LLC. It's a wave.

It is a GREAT looking wave right now though. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

One of the BEST I've ever seen.

[meteorologyman]

You guys might want to look at this
I posted it in TWO forum


http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

[Clint_TX]

IMHO there will be no TD1 this year...they are going to find alberto if they wait for recon

[brunota2003]

You guys might want to look at this
I posted it in TWO forum


http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

And once again: Remember though...that is only based on SST's, it doesn't include Dry Air, Wind Shear etc...so no need to majorly stir things up...

[benny]

Not a whole lot of change through 54 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_054l.gif

It will get into an area of weak steering thereafter with a growing central US ridge...hmm

Also someone asked for a SST plot:
http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/data/ ... t.zoom.gif

If you can get into the server... it shows the loop current very close to the forecast path of the cyclone (roughly) by the models. Of course, shear is a much bigger player and that will control much of the intensity change.

[dixiebreeze]

Now down to 1006 MB and 25 kts:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables

[wxman57]

Here's a new GARP snapshot of 1K visisble imager with surface obs. Winds in the NW Caribbean are generally in the 10-15 kt range. No evidence of an LLC, just a wave axis:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto3.gif

[Clint_TX]

I see that wxman57...it's an axis alright!

[stormtruth]

does anyone have an estimate of where the LLC of the system is?

There is no LLC. It's a wave.

Isn't it a developing LLC? Isn't calling it a wave just a way to be extra critical of someone who asked where the LLC is.

[HurricaneHunter914]

This system already has TD force winds, lets see if recon finds the same.

[Extremeweatherguy]

does anyone have an estimate of where the LLC of the system is?

There is no LLC. It's a wave.

Then how come the NHC visible overlay indicates a 1006mb low?