Tropical Storm Alberto

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
CHRISTY

#1281 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:33 am

guys i just got up and this thing in my opinion has a chance to make to minimal hurricane strength right before landfall....all i can say is :eek: :eek:

Image
0 likes   

no advance
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 413
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:50 pm
Location: merritt is.

#1282 Postby no advance » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:34 am

You be alright Dixie. Secure the garbage can and stay off the water. It wont be a good day for boating Dixie,.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#1283 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:34 am

Guys and gals this going to catch alot of people in the Tampa Bay area off guard I am afraid - should be similar to how Frances was when it passed through Tampa. It shows that you cannot underestimate the power of the GOM and loop current.....
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#1284 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:35 am

Convection is actually getting sheared off away from the center though a relocation of the center under the convection is possible.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#1285 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:36 am

The flight level wind was 68 knots, which translates to 51 knots/58.7 mph at the surface (if multiplier is .75, I can't remember) or 54.4 knots/62.6 mph (if the multiplier is .8). If they round up to 65 mph, I could see hurricane watches in either the 11am advisory or the 5pm advisory.
Last edited by mtm4319 on Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#1286 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:37 am

mtm4319 wrote:The flight level wind was 68 knots, which translates to 54.4 knots/62.6 mph at the surface. If they round up to 65 mph, I could see hurricane watches in either the 11am advisory or the 5pm advisory.


Yep, probably as a precaution. Tropical storm watches upgraded to warnings.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#1287 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:38 am

mtm4319 wrote:The flight level wind was 68 knots, which translates to 54.4 knots/62.6 mph at the surface. If they round up to 65 mph, I could see hurricane watches in either the 11am advisory or the 5pm advisory.


WOW. Looks like this may go down as one of the biggest surprises in tropical storm history - if this baby becomes a hurricane before landfall it will shock everybody.. :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

#1288 Postby KatDaddy » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:38 am

Roadrunner cable down all weekend........arggggggggg!
All in all it does not look all that bad thanks to shearing.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#1289 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:38 am

A hurricane watch would cause those people who haven't prepared to start preparing like crazy.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

#1290 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:40 am

no advance wrote:You be alright Dixie. Secure the garbage can and stay off the water. It wont be a good day for boating Dixie,.


Thanks no advance -- I certainly won't be on a boat today!
0 likes   

no advance
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 413
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:50 pm
Location: merritt is.

#1291 Postby no advance » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:41 am

3331 divided by 120 equals approx. 28 posts a day. Wow Hurricne Hunter
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145323
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#1292 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:43 am

They found 74 kt wind.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#1293 Postby feederband » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:43 am

cane?
0 likes   

no advance
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 413
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:50 pm
Location: merritt is.

#1294 Postby no advance » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:43 am

No way Charlie was a bigger surprise. Cat 4
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#1295 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:44 am

a 74 knot FL wind would lead me to believe that Alberto is now a 65 or 70mph TS.
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

#1296 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:44 am

no advance wrote:3331 divided by 120 equals approx. 28 posts a day. Wow Hurricne Hunter


I suspect cycloneye easily holds the record for average number of posts over his career.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#1297 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:45 am

Also, I do not think they would upgrade to a cane until they have multiple 80 knot+ FL winds. Also, they would probably hold off to see better organization.
0 likes   

no advance
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 413
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:50 pm
Location: merritt is.

#1298 Postby no advance » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:45 am

At least he knows what he is writing about. Cyclone is no rookie.
0 likes   

arcticfire
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 189
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 1:58 am
Location: Anchorage, AK
Contact:

#1299 Postby arcticfire » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:45 am

I don't think it's getting blown apart , I think it's just expanding and deeping
0 likes   

curtadams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1122
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:57 pm
Location: Orange, California
Contact:

#1300 Postby curtadams » Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:45 am

The LLC convection can't just relocate under the convection. It's way too big. It can move, and is moving, toward the highest convection. In any case, with this shear, the LLC can never be under the convection - the convection will be in the LLC's updraft, which goes downwind. Hurricanes aren't solid objects.
0 likes   


Return to “2006”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest