Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #1

[canegrl04]

1886 was the only year to see 3 hurricanes make landfall in the US in June. 1968 wasn't a very active season,but 1936(16 named storms) and 1886(14) were

[CHRISTY]

Ok guys here is 2 Visible and IR real close up loops of the TROPICAL WAVE in the caribbean

1http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/volcano/prvis_loope.html

2http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/volcano/soufir_loope.html

Here is a IR LOOP of the waves coming of africa...
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/loops/realtime/tropicsir_loope.html

Here's another large visible of the wave near the caribbean..
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-8%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-68&zoom=2&quality=100&info=vis

[HurricaneHunter914]

That's some pretty strong convection for a system under shear.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is not -removed-...but looking at surface forecasts, models and reading the Houston AFD, it seems that a ridge will be over the eastern gulf with a weakness over TX. This would mean that anything that forms could turn north and head into TX next week. Texans need to really keep a close eye on these waves.

that opening is very easy to see on this 72 hour surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Also, whether or not something forms...coastal regions of Texas should expect increasing rain chances this weekend and next week.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This system doe's not look to bad at all...Going to look at the shear maps.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Well Texas and Florida are usually the targets during June, am I correct?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow tutt is trying to back into the caribbean...But if it can get into the central Caribbean the shear go down.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Which could help development-wise. I'm not trying to wishcast, but if all of these Tropical Waves can get into the central caribbean while the shear is low they can all have a chance at development.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 132117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO... LOCATED INLAND NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[CrazyC83]

Chance of the wave currently affecting the Caribbean developing IMO: 10%. Its organization is horrible, even if the convection is strong.

Chance of the wave E of the Windwards developing IMO: 30%, but not until it gets well into the Caribbean Sea.

[Extremeweatherguy]

ABNT20 KNHC 132117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO... LOCATED INLAND NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

this looks wrong. the TWO I am looking at from the NHC site is this:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 132117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO... LOCATED INLAND NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES... AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND
HISPANIOLA AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

link to outlook: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2117.shtml

[GeneratorPower]

Cycloneye, I think you got the TWO incorrect. It's missing a vital paragraph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 132117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO... LOCATED INLAND NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES... AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND
HISPANIOLA AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Extremeweatherguy I cut the TWO to post the part for wave in Atlantic.The other part is at the Caribbean wave thread.

[GeneratorPower]

Might I suggest using highlights for the info you want instead of chopping? Or else at least use a break symbol like "..." or something. Too confusing.

[Cyclenall]

I have a question for the peak of the season but belongs in this topic, what is the maximum number of Tropical Cyclones that can be in the Atlantic Ocean at the same time? (If there is a limit).

[HURAKAN]

I have a question for the peak of the season but belongs in this topic, what is the maximum number of Tropical Cyclones that can be in the Atlantic Ocean at the same time? (If there is a limit).

We have seen four at the same time in the Atlantic. A limit? I guess so, when you run out of space!!! No, storms when they form close to each other they interact with each other (Fujiwara Effect) and usually the strogest absorbs the weaker one.

1998:

[fci]

Boy 1998 had some names that stike fear into us now remembering a couple of years ago!

[Cyclenall]

I knew at some points in the atlantic they had 4 hurricanes at the same time but has there ever been more the 4? There is still some space in there for a 5th TC. That would be crazy active. I think 1995 had something like this too but all weren't hurricanes at once.

If 2 Tropical Cyclones are to close to each other 1 will absorb the weaker one like with the 2005 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season did one time (Max and Linda?).

[Brent]

We had 4 storms at once in 2004 as well, ironically using the same list as 1998.

Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. STRONG WAVE
IS WELL DEFINED IN THE MID LEVEL CURVATURE ROTATION WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT.
STRONG...WELL DEFINED WAVE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CURVATURE
ROTATION. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE LACKS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
BUT DOES HAVE ABUNDANT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
ITCZ.


8 PM Discussion about the Atlantic Waves.