Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #1

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

#201 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:26 pm

1886 was the only year to see 3 hurricanes make landfall in the US in June. 1968 wasn't a very active season,but 1936(16 named storms) and 1886(14) were
0 likes   

CHRISTY

#202 Postby CHRISTY » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:39 pm

Last edited by CHRISTY on Sun Jun 18, 2006 10:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#203 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:40 pm

That's some pretty strong convection for a system under shear.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#204 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:40 pm

This is not -removed-...but looking at surface forecasts, models and reading the Houston AFD, it seems that a ridge will be over the eastern gulf with a weakness over TX. This would mean that anything that forms could turn north and head into TX next week. Texans need to really keep a close eye on these waves.

that opening is very easy to see on this 72 hour surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Also, whether or not something forms...coastal regions of Texas should expect increasing rain chances this weekend and next week.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#205 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:41 pm

This system doe's not look to bad at all...Going to look at the shear maps. :wink:
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#206 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:42 pm

Well Texas and Florida are usually the targets during June, am I correct?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#207 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:43 pm

Wow tutt is trying to back into the caribbean...But if it can get into the central Caribbean the shear go down.
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#208 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jun 13, 2006 3:51 pm

Which could help development-wise. I'm not trying to wishcast, but if all of these Tropical Waves can get into the central caribbean while the shear is low they can all have a chance at development.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146204
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#209 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 13, 2006 4:23 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 132117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO... LOCATED INLAND NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34093
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#210 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jun 13, 2006 4:39 pm

Chance of the wave currently affecting the Caribbean developing IMO: 10%. Its organization is horrible, even if the convection is strong.

Chance of the wave E of the Windwards developing IMO: 30%, but not until it gets well into the Caribbean Sea.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#211 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jun 13, 2006 4:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 132117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO... LOCATED INLAND NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


this looks wrong. the TWO I am looking at from the NHC site is this:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 132117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO... LOCATED INLAND NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES... AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND
HISPANIOLA AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$


link to outlook: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2117.shtml
0 likes   

User avatar
GeneratorPower
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1648
Age: 45
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
Location: Huntsville, AL

#212 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Jun 13, 2006 4:51 pm

Cycloneye, I think you got the TWO incorrect. It's missing a vital paragraph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 132117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO... LOCATED INLAND NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES... AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND
HISPANIOLA AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.


ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146204
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#213 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 13, 2006 4:52 pm

Extremeweatherguy I cut the TWO to post the part for wave in Atlantic.The other part is at the Caribbean wave thread. :)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
GeneratorPower
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1648
Age: 45
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
Location: Huntsville, AL

#214 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Jun 13, 2006 4:54 pm

Might I suggest using highlights for the info you want instead of chopping? Or else at least use a break symbol like "..." or something. Too confusing.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#215 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Jun 13, 2006 5:16 pm

I have a question for the peak of the season but belongs in this topic, what is the maximum number of Tropical Cyclones that can be in the Atlantic Ocean at the same time? (If there is a limit).
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#216 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 13, 2006 5:32 pm

Cyclenall wrote:I have a question for the peak of the season but belongs in this topic, what is the maximum number of Tropical Cyclones that can be in the Atlantic Ocean at the same time? (If there is a limit).


We have seen four at the same time in the Atlantic. A limit? I guess so, when you run out of space!!! No, storms when they form close to each other they interact with each other (Fujiwara Effect) and usually the strogest absorbs the weaker one.

1998:
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

#217 Postby fci » Tue Jun 13, 2006 5:38 pm

Boy 1998 had some names that stike fear into us now remembering a couple of years ago!
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#218 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Jun 13, 2006 6:07 pm

I knew at some points in the atlantic they had 4 hurricanes at the same time but has there ever been more the 4? There is still some space in there for a 5th TC. That would be crazy active. I think 1995 had something like this too but all weren't hurricanes at once.

If 2 Tropical Cyclones are to close to each other 1 will absorb the weaker one like with the 2005 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season did one time (Max and Linda?).
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38117
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#219 Postby Brent » Tue Jun 13, 2006 6:09 pm

We had 4 storms at once in 2004 as well, ironically using the same list as 1998.

Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146204
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#220 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 13, 2006 7:04 pm

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. STRONG WAVE
IS WELL DEFINED IN THE MID LEVEL CURVATURE ROTATION WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT.
STRONG...WELL DEFINED WAVE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CURVATURE
ROTATION. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE LACKS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
BUT DOES HAVE ABUNDANT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
ITCZ.


8 PM Discussion about the Atlantic Waves.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], HurricaneRyan and 27 guests