Wave system at C.Carib.,Sat. Images,Comments,Discussion #1

[HurricaneHunter914]

Give it a chance it might regenerate later and I think ExtrmeWeatherGuy is right, I got a little confused on the location of the wave I just saw a SAT pic and now I think this might just go straight through the Caribbean and possibly into the GOM.

[Thunder44]

our caribbean wave has gone....

Yes the thunderstorms have, but the wave axis is still there. You can see a MLC just south of Hati moving WNW towards Jamaica this morning on IR-2 satellite imagery. It will have a chance to develop it moves into the Western Carribean this weekend.

[rockyman]

There is a convectionless swirl this morning just to the SE of Jamaica...let's see what happens with it today.

[rockyman]

Looking at the first short visible loop of the day, the swirl does not appear to be at the surface...mostly high cirrus turning

[drezee]

3 mb 24-hr pressure falls in the buoys in front of the islands.

[Thunder44]

Looks like subsidence is entering the NW Carribean this morning. That would prohibit development there anytime soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

3 mb 24-hr pressure falls in the buoys in front of the islands.

Which Islands you are talking about?

[jusforsean]

Looks like subsidence is entering the NW Carribean this morning. That would prohibit development there anytime soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

subsidence: is this like as in a calming effect?

[Thunder44]

Looks like subsidence is entering the NW Carribean this morning. That would prohibit development there anytime soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

subsidence: is this like as in a calming effect?

It's dry or sinking air behind a middle to upper level trough dropping down into the Carribean this morning. The 8:05am discussion from NHC sums it up better:

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 50W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 16N79W...ABOUT
120 NM SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THIS LOW CENTER IS PART OF
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY
WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS OR SO. A LOW CENTER HAD BEEN
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY A FEW DAYS AGO...AND A TROUGH WAS
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA YESTERDAY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA AS THE
16N79W LOW CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE FOUND NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 79W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A 22N57W LOW CENTER TO
19N60W TO 18N68W TO THE 16N79W LOW CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS
TROUGH. MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE NEAR THE 22N57W ATLANTIC OCEAN
LOW CENTER...FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 58W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 64W AND 76W. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF NICARAGUA SIX HOURS AGO HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 75W.

[CHRISTY]

Here's a Water Vapor Image....lots of dry air out there.

[cycloneye]

Christy,only look at the upper right part of pic you posted.That is an Upper Low from where the TUTT trough starts as you can see it easily.From where I am I dont mind that that TUTT remains there all season long as it's a shield to the islands from the CV systems.

[boca]

Is the tutt the area on the satelite from Jamaica , south of Puerto Rico and across the leeward islands to the swirl in the Atlantic?

[CHRISTY]

Christy,only look at the upper right part of pic you posted.That is an Upper Low from where the TUTT trough starts as you can see it easily.From where I am I dont mind that that TUTT remains there all season long as it's a shield to the islands from the CV systems.

yea i see the the upper low hopefullly lots of fish this season.PS!i will say this these have been very impressive tropical waves coming of africa the last couple of days it almost seems like there a little bit a head of schdule but to me conditions out there are not favorable for the development of these waves just yet.

[HouTXmetro]

Nice swirl, I don't think this wave is dead yet. IMO things will get real interesting if this Wave starts to interact with the convection firing in the BOC. I'm very impressed that it has maintained a finite circulation.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB is still not budging this morning. He says a trof split will occur in coming days (similar to the one that formed Aletta in the Pacific and Alberto in the Atlantic) with a western or central gulf threat for a tropical cyclone possible.

[vaffie]

Interestingly, if one looks at the GFS model today, (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation)
one sees that the Bermuda High will be stretching deep into the Gulf and possibly preventing this tropical wave/whatever from hitting points east of the Mississippi.

[CHRISTY]

Dry air will help in keeping things unfavorable .....also just checked globel models and no hint of any activity in the next few days. chrisy

[skysummit]

All's quiet! Time to stock up on the potted meat!

[kenl01]

It's all over

Time to go snorkling this weekend !

[Swimdude]

Na Na Na Na - Na Na Na Na - Hey - Hey - Hey - Goodbyeeeeeee