Shear Already Becoming a Factor

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 2:07 pm

Latest infrared satellite imagery shows that the low may already be having some trouble with the shear farther west. The convection is becoming more elongated. If the NHC doesn't classify the low within the next couple hours you can forget about it.

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 2:15 pm

Thanks!!

weatherlover427 · #3 Postby **weatherlover427** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 2:47 pm

Thanks for the updates TWW!

Guest · #4 Postby **Guest** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 2:49 pm

Next couple of hours alot can happen - will have to wait and see.

southerngale · #5 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 2:54 pm

Thanks for staying on top of things. Man I love the internet...remember the bad ol' days when we had to wait for TWC's tropical update? And even then, not many details.

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:22 pm

southerngale wrote:Thanks for staying on top of things. Man I love the internet...remember the bad ol' days when we had to wait for TWC's tropical update? And even then, not many details.

Yes I do and Yes I do :lol:

Anonymous · #7 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 4:22 pm

The low is looking even worse. I seriosuly doubt the NHC will ever classify this system.

Rainband · #8 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 4:23 pm

One of my locals said it could become something in three 3days..whatever is left of it/ :roll:

and I could win the lotto too!!! :lol:

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 4:31 pm

I don't see how that is possible. There is a large upper level trough dominating the entire central Atlantic and most of the Caribbean Sea. This trough won't go awayt anytime soon.

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 5:10 pm

TropicalWxWatcher wrote:I don't see how that is possible. There is a large upper level trough dominating the entire central Atlantic and most of the Caribbean Sea. This trough won't go awayt anytime soon.

Maybe you should have his JOB!!! :wink:

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 5:15 pm

Nah I wouldn't enjoy being an OCM. :wink:

All they need to do is look at the sats and shear maps.

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 5:20 pm

TropicalWxWatcher wrote:Nah I wouldn't enjoy being an OCM. All they need to do is look at the sats and shear maps.

I should have watched dick fletcher..he isn't about ratings just the weather..plain and simple!! :wink:

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 5:22 pm

The low has become rather disorganized this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows that westerly shear is already chewing on the leading side, resulting in a more elognated appearance and a very minute inflow pattern. As it moves further west, the shear only gets worse due to that quasi-stationary upper level trough to the north. There is still a very small chance it will organize again tonight, especially if it doesn't move any further to the north. However, given the shear right now I wouldn't count on it.

There has also been some speculation on re-intensification further west, in the Caribbean. I would discount this scenario too. Due to the strong tropical upper tropospheric trough, the shear in the Caribbean Sea isn't any better than it is directly ahead of the low.

IMO, this thing is toast. It's an extremely rare feature for this time of the year, however, so cherish this moment while you can.

Stormsfury · #14 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Jun 09, 2003 11:16 pm

Totally agreed, Supercane ... the low is already feeling the influence as its being shunted north of due west ...

ColdFront77 · #15 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 10:00 pm

Stranger things have happened. The shear probably won't lessen... but when and if it does, we may have something to watch.

Stormsfury · #16 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Jun 10, 2003 10:20 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:Stranger things have happened. The shear probably won't lessen... but when and if it does, we may have something to watch.

Especially since it's 2003 ... which will go down in weather history as the "Year of Firsts and Broken Records"...

grentz7721 · #17 Postby **grentz7721** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 5:17 pm

Dr. Steve Lyons from TWC says the shear to TD2's west is not likely to
make changes to TD2 so far.

Anonymous · #18 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 5:25 pm

Dr. Steve Lyons from TWC says the shear is not likely to make any
changes to TD2 so far so the shear is not likely to affect it.

What? The shear is what's going to kill this storm. :? I'd have to disagree with Lyons there.

ColdFront77 · #19 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 5:43 pm

It appears that Dr. Steve Lyons has reasons for saying why he thinks Tropical Depression 2 may not weaken because of the shear that exists to the west of the system.

There have been tropical systems that have hung tough through relatively high wind shear. I am not sure about Kyle last year, but "he" weakened and intensified several times over its existance.

Anonymous · #20 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 7:08 pm

I am pretty sure Lyons didn't say that to begin with...I believe what George was trying to say, was that Lyons doesn't believe the westerly shear is affecting the TD atm.

Shear Already Becoming a Factor

Shear Already Becoming a Factor

Who is online