Shear Already Becoming a Factor

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Shear Already Becoming a Factor

#1 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jun 09, 2003 2:07 pm

Latest infrared satellite imagery shows that the low may already be having some trouble with the shear farther west. The convection is becoming more elongated. If the NHC doesn't classify the low within the next couple hours you can forget about it.
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Rainband

#2 Postby Rainband » Mon Jun 09, 2003 2:15 pm

Thanks!! :wink:
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weatherlover427

#3 Postby weatherlover427 » Mon Jun 09, 2003 2:47 pm

Thanks for the updates TWW! :D
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Guest

#4 Postby Guest » Mon Jun 09, 2003 2:49 pm

Next couple of hours alot can happen - will have to wait and see.
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#5 Postby southerngale » Mon Jun 09, 2003 2:54 pm

Thanks for staying on top of things. Man I love the internet...remember the bad ol' days when we had to wait for TWC's tropical update? And even then, not many details.
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Rainband

#6 Postby Rainband » Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:22 pm

southerngale wrote:Thanks for staying on top of things. Man I love the internet...remember the bad ol' days when we had to wait for TWC's tropical update? And even then, not many details.
Yes I do and Yes I do :lol: :lol: :lol: :wink:
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Anonymous

#7 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jun 09, 2003 4:22 pm

The low is looking even worse. I seriosuly doubt the NHC will ever classify this system.
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Rainband

#8 Postby Rainband » Mon Jun 09, 2003 4:23 pm

One of my locals said it could become something in three 3days..whatever is left of it/ :roll: :roll: :roll: and I could win the lotto too!!! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Anonymous

#9 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jun 09, 2003 4:31 pm

I don't see how that is possible. There is a large upper level trough dominating the entire central Atlantic and most of the Caribbean Sea. This trough won't go awayt anytime soon.
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Rainband

#10 Postby Rainband » Mon Jun 09, 2003 5:10 pm

TropicalWxWatcher wrote:I don't see how that is possible. There is a large upper level trough dominating the entire central Atlantic and most of the Caribbean Sea. This trough won't go awayt anytime soon.
Maybe you should have his JOB!!! :wink:
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Anonymous

#11 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jun 09, 2003 5:15 pm

Nah I wouldn't enjoy being an OCM. :wink: All they need to do is look at the sats and shear maps.
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Rainband

#12 Postby Rainband » Mon Jun 09, 2003 5:20 pm

TropicalWxWatcher wrote:Nah I wouldn't enjoy being an OCM. :wink: All they need to do is look at the sats and shear maps.
I should have watched dick fletcher..he isn't about ratings just the weather..plain and simple!! :wink:
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Anonymous

#13 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jun 09, 2003 5:22 pm

The low has become rather disorganized this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows that westerly shear is already chewing on the leading side, resulting in a more elognated appearance and a very minute inflow pattern. As it moves further west, the shear only gets worse due to that quasi-stationary upper level trough to the north. There is still a very small chance it will organize again tonight, especially if it doesn't move any further to the north. However, given the shear right now I wouldn't count on it.

There has also been some speculation on re-intensification further west, in the Caribbean. I would discount this scenario too. Due to the strong tropical upper tropospheric trough, the shear in the Caribbean Sea isn't any better than it is directly ahead of the low.

IMO, this thing is toast. It's an extremely rare feature for this time of the year, however, so cherish this moment while you can. :D
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#14 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Jun 09, 2003 11:16 pm

Totally agreed, Supercane ... the low is already feeling the influence as its being shunted north of due west ...
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ColdFront77

#15 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Jun 10, 2003 10:00 pm

Stranger things have happened. The shear probably won't lessen... but when and if it does, we may have something to watch.
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#16 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Jun 10, 2003 10:20 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:Stranger things have happened. The shear probably won't lessen... but when and if it does, we may have something to watch.


Especially since it's 2003 ... which will go down in weather history as the "Year of Firsts and Broken Records"...
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#17 Postby grentz7721 » Wed Jun 11, 2003 5:17 pm

Dr. Steve Lyons from TWC says the shear to TD2's west is not likely to
make changes to TD2 so far.
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Anonymous

#18 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jun 11, 2003 5:25 pm

Dr. Steve Lyons from TWC says the shear is not likely to make any
changes to TD2 so far so the shear is not likely to affect it.


What? The shear is what's going to kill this storm. :? I'd have to disagree with Lyons there.
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ColdFront77

#19 Postby ColdFront77 » Wed Jun 11, 2003 5:43 pm

It appears that Dr. Steve Lyons has reasons for saying why he thinks Tropical Depression 2 may not weaken because of the shear that exists to the west of the system.

There have been tropical systems that have hung tough through relatively high wind shear. I am not sure about Kyle last year, but "he" weakened and intensified several times over its existance.
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Anonymous

#20 Postby Anonymous » Wed Jun 11, 2003 7:08 pm

I am pretty sure Lyons didn't say that to begin with...I believe what George was trying to say, was that Lyons doesn't believe the westerly shear is affecting the TD atm.
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