INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

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skysummit
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#201 Postby skysummit » Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:26 pm

This is what my TWO says: (it's a little different than gator's for some reason)

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.
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#202 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:26 pm

WindRunner wrote:How is that a change? If you mean "Significant development of this system is not expected," well, that's been in there for a couple of days now.


Sorry, just modified it. It has changed. Look:

From the 11:30 TWO:

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

From the latest (5:30) TWO:

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.
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#203 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:27 pm

we know the NHC is conservative but certainly it seems to me they are hinting at something down the road...
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#204 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:27 pm

OK, we're all posting too fast here. I changed mine too. :D
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#205 Postby Opal storm » Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:28 pm

gatorcane wrote:
WindRunner wrote:
skysummit wrote:18Z Guidance:

Image


The models are also pretty keen on developing the system - 50kts by the time it's in the Caribbean.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060626 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060626 1800 060627 0600 060627 1800 060628 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.2N 47.0W 9.1N 50.3W 10.1N 53.6W 11.1N 56.8W
BAMM 8.2N 47.0W 9.0N 50.3W 9.9N 53.6W 10.7N 56.8W
A98E 8.2N 47.0W 8.9N 49.3W 9.6N 51.8W 10.4N 54.5W
LBAR 8.2N 47.0W 8.8N 50.1W 9.9N 53.4W 10.8N 57.1W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060628 1800 060629 1800 060630 1800 060701 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.4N 59.8W 15.6N 65.1W 19.3N 69.3W 22.3N 71.9W
BAMM 11.7N 59.9W 14.1N 65.6W 16.8N 71.0W 19.0N 76.1W
A98E 11.2N 57.4W 13.9N 63.1W 16.6N 68.6W 19.1N 73.4W
LBAR 11.8N 60.8W 14.9N 66.7W 17.9N 70.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 34KTS 47KTS 51KTS 50KTS
DSHP 34KTS 47KTS 51KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.2N LONCUR = 47.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 7.7N LONM12 = 45.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 7.3N LONM24 = 43.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


I sure hope those tracks don't verify :eek:

I know it's WAY early but I heard there's going to be a ridge building in the Gulf that should steer anything to the Yucatan/BOC,not Florida.But like I said,it's too early to tell for sure.
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#206 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:28 pm

When they say " Significant Development not expected" they mean that this system could develop but not much.
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#207 Postby curtadams » Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:29 pm

That would be, what, the 5th time the CMC said something would develop east of the Bahamas this month? At 120 hours, to boot. Don't stop the presses.
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#208 Postby whereverwx » Mon Jun 26, 2006 5:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:
drezee wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Here's a new GARP visible shot with surface plots. The area to watch is NOT the little eddy down by 6N-7N but the crest of the wave to the east (in the yellow square). That's where to watch for possible development - the crest of the wave that may break off and start spinning.

For now, it's just a wave. There is no LLC at all. Convection is minimal, and I don't expect any development for the next 4-5 days until if/when it reaches the western Caribbean:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif


Since I just had this conversation with Derek, what makes you believe that the system to the NE is not a LLC?


I don't see any evidence of rotation at the surface on high-res satellite loops. And it's still attached to the wave. Generally, watch for the "blob" to detach from the crest of the wave and then begin spinning.

Yeah, I'm having a hard time finding a LLC, too.
Image
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#209 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jun 26, 2006 5:03 pm

Just north of that small area of convection blowing up on your loop is a LLC. That is a fact. You can see it in the lower cloud field. Its 102 degrees at my house right now in with nothing to cool my house off its very hot.
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#210 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Jun 26, 2006 5:03 pm

That system is zipping along way too fast for development if you watch the loop.
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#211 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jun 26, 2006 5:04 pm

Wxman91 take a look at the lower clouds just north of that blow up. That is a LLC. In sure its going to fast for development but its not out of the quastion with a defined LLC like that with convection near it.
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#212 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Jun 26, 2006 5:07 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Wxman91 take a look at the lower clouds just north of that blow up. That is a LLC. In sure its going to fast for development but its not out of the quastion with a defined LLC like that with convection near it.


You have a good eye. I see it now. Nevertheless, it looks very weak, shallow, and naked.
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#213 Postby Opal storm » Mon Jun 26, 2006 5:07 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:That system is zipping along way too fast for development if you watch the loop.
I agree,I don't think it's going to show any significant development until it passes the islands and slows down.
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#214 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jun 26, 2006 5:11 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:That system is zipping along way too fast for development if you watch the loop.


I believe that loop has actually been put on faster mode, if you look at the time.
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#215 Postby Tampa_God » Mon Jun 26, 2006 5:23 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:That system is zipping along way too fast for development if you watch the loop.


I believe that loop has actually been put on faster mode, if you look at the time.
Agree, I just noticed that. Trying to find a loop that is slower
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#216 Postby no advance » Mon Jun 26, 2006 5:25 pm

It might be a dancer like weve seen in the past few years. I mean the MLC countiues west trying to make it to the surface. It will be interesting when the TW passes the leewards will there be any west winds.
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#217 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jun 26, 2006 5:27 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:That system is zipping along way too fast for development if you watch the loop.


I believe that loop has actually been put on faster mode, if you look at the time.


Umm, he made that loop himself so that it would include sunup to sundown and therefore is faster. Check out the SSD page if you want the traditional Java loop that you can control the speed on.

And yes, I also see that low-level swirl sticking out from the north side of the convection.
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#218 Postby NONAME » Mon Jun 26, 2006 5:32 pm

who were ther forcastors for those outlooks
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#219 Postby Swimdude » Mon Jun 26, 2006 5:50 pm

Check out the shear maps of the Caribbean. This thing is going to have to put up one heck of a fight to survive.

40kts...

Image
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#220 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 26, 2006 5:57 pm

I don't know about you guys but with all that shear this system could easily go "poof".
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