INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

[skysummit]

This is what my TWO says: (it's a little different than gator's for some reason)

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

[gatorcane]

How is that a change? If you mean "Significant development of this system is not expected," well, that's been in there for a couple of days now.

Sorry, just modified it. It has changed. Look:

From the 11:30 TWO:

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

From the latest (5:30) TWO:

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

[gatorcane]

we know the NHC is conservative but certainly it seems to me they are hinting at something down the road...

[WindRunner]

OK, we're all posting too fast here. I changed mine too.

[Opal storm]

18Z Guidance:

The models are also pretty keen on developing the system - 50kts by the time it's in the Caribbean.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060626 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060626 1800 060627 0600 060627 1800 060628 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.2N 47.0W 9.1N 50.3W 10.1N 53.6W 11.1N 56.8W
BAMM 8.2N 47.0W 9.0N 50.3W 9.9N 53.6W 10.7N 56.8W
A98E 8.2N 47.0W 8.9N 49.3W 9.6N 51.8W 10.4N 54.5W
LBAR 8.2N 47.0W 8.8N 50.1W 9.9N 53.4W 10.8N 57.1W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060628 1800 060629 1800 060630 1800 060701 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.4N 59.8W 15.6N 65.1W 19.3N 69.3W 22.3N 71.9W
BAMM 11.7N 59.9W 14.1N 65.6W 16.8N 71.0W 19.0N 76.1W
A98E 11.2N 57.4W 13.9N 63.1W 16.6N 68.6W 19.1N 73.4W
LBAR 11.8N 60.8W 14.9N 66.7W 17.9N 70.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 34KTS 47KTS 51KTS 50KTS
DSHP 34KTS 47KTS 51KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.2N LONCUR = 47.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 7.7N LONM12 = 45.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 7.3N LONM24 = 43.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

I sure hope those tracks don't verify

I know it's WAY early but I heard there's going to be a ridge building in the Gulf that should steer anything to the Yucatan/BOC,not Florida.But like I said,it's too early to tell for sure.

[HurricaneHunter914]

When they say " Significant Development not expected" they mean that this system could develop but not much.

[curtadams]

That would be, what, the 5th time the CMC said something would develop east of the Bahamas this month? At 120 hours, to boot. Don't stop the presses.

[whereverwx]

Here's a new GARP visible shot with surface plots. The area to watch is NOT the little eddy down by 6N-7N but the crest of the wave to the east (in the yellow square). That's where to watch for possible development - the crest of the wave that may break off and start spinning.

For now, it's just a wave. There is no LLC at all. Convection is minimal, and I don't expect any development for the next 4-5 days until if/when it reaches the western Caribbean:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif

Since I just had this conversation with Derek, what makes you believe that the system to the NE is not a LLC?

I don't see any evidence of rotation at the surface on high-res satellite loops. And it's still attached to the wave. Generally, watch for the "blob" to detach from the crest of the wave and then begin spinning.

Yeah, I'm having a hard time finding a LLC, too.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just north of that small area of convection blowing up on your loop is a LLC. That is a fact. You can see it in the lower cloud field. Its 102 degrees at my house right now in with nothing to cool my house off its very hot.

[wxmann_91]

That system is zipping along way too fast for development if you watch the loop.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wxman91 take a look at the lower clouds just north of that blow up. That is a LLC. In sure its going to fast for development but its not out of the quastion with a defined LLC like that with convection near it.

[wxmann_91]

Wxman91 take a look at the lower clouds just north of that blow up. That is a LLC. In sure its going to fast for development but its not out of the quastion with a defined LLC like that with convection near it.

You have a good eye. I see it now. Nevertheless, it looks very weak, shallow, and naked.

[Opal storm]

That system is zipping along way too fast for development if you watch the loop.

I agree,I don't think it's going to show any significant development until it passes the islands and slows down.

[Thunder44]

That system is zipping along way too fast for development if you watch the loop.

I believe that loop has actually been put on faster mode, if you look at the time.

[Tampa_God]

That system is zipping along way too fast for development if you watch the loop.

I believe that loop has actually been put on faster mode, if you look at the time.

Agree, I just noticed that. Trying to find a loop that is slower

[no advance]

It might be a dancer like weve seen in the past few years. I mean the MLC countiues west trying to make it to the surface. It will be interesting when the TW passes the leewards will there be any west winds.

[WindRunner]

That system is zipping along way too fast for development if you watch the loop.

I believe that loop has actually been put on faster mode, if you look at the time.

Umm, he made that loop himself so that it would include sunup to sundown and therefore is faster. Check out the SSD page if you want the traditional Java loop that you can control the speed on.

And yes, I also see that low-level swirl sticking out from the north side of the convection.

[NONAME]

who were ther forcastors for those outlooks

[Swimdude]

Check out the shear maps of the Caribbean. This thing is going to have to put up one heck of a fight to survive.

40kts...

[HurricaneHunter914]

I don't know about you guys but with all that shear this system could easily go "poof".