96E INVEST at EPAC Thread #1

[NONAME]

Here is 96E


http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[skysummit]

6/29 12z Guidance:

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

DAMN! That looks really organized!

[HenkL]

The ECMWF model shows a developing system next monday in the E-Pacific.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This could be the first system since two. I think its pretty likely looking at the size and the fact that the system already is starting to form nicely. Will take a better look at it.

[gatorcane]

what are the chances for development?

[WindRunner]

I'd say pretty good by the way it's looking right now . . . but that's far from a guarantee.

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292235
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT THU JUN 29 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15-20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

I say they make a Special Advisory because this is really organized!

[NONAME]

Um I dont think it has a Closed low sorry.

[HurricaneHunter914]

We should probably ask a Pro-Met.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks very good with a large are of convection. It also has the ECMWF, which only develops systems when they have a really good chance. Also the bad news is we are going to need to use the quickscats to find a closed LLC. No obs out here.

[bombarderoazul]

This might be the Epac third storm of the year, looking pretty good so far.

[NONAME]

It Does look good though and I think will become bud do to Favorable Enviorment and should stay that way for atleast a few days it would generall mow W to WNW with NO threat to Mexico or Hawaii

[gatorcane]

its looking really nice - if something like that were in the Atlantic this forum would be going crazy - but that time seems to be getting closer and closer as we move into July and eventually Aug and Sept

[WindRunner]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

I say they make a Special Advisory because this is really organized!

You'll almost never see a special advisory in the Pacific, as most storms (including this one) don't threaten land. Special advisories are usually intended to inform people of a drastic change in path/intensity that would effect people's evac/prep before the storm. Definately would not see one on a new storm in the middle of the ocean and heading westward.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Oh sorry I didn't know that.

[WindRunner]

Oh sorry I didn't know that.

Oh no, that's OK, just something that you should know for the future

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

You can see where the circulation is with this Invest even if this is IR.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

96L is very broad cirulation...With two area's that could be LLC's one at 10 north/117 west. Another which more convection appears to be transporting to this one at 9.5 north/120 west. Another system which is alot more defined is out to the west of this system. Which has a large ball of convection with what might be a LLC at 12 north/127 west.