96E INVEST at EPAC Thread #1

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NONAME
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96E INVEST at EPAC Thread #1

#1 Postby NONAME » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:15 pm

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#2 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:29 pm

6/29 12z Guidance:

Image
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#3 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:04 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

DAMN! :eek: That looks really organized!
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#4 Postby HenkL » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:38 pm

The ECMWF model shows a developing system next monday in the E-Pacific.
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#5 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:43 pm

This could be the first system since two. I think its pretty likely looking at the size and the fact that the system already is starting to form nicely. Will take a better look at it.
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#6 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:37 pm

what are the chances for development?
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#7 Postby WindRunner » Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:38 pm

I'd say pretty good by the way it's looking right now . . . but that's far from a guarantee.
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:41 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292235
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT THU JUN 29 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15-20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#9 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 8:31 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

I say they make a Special Advisory because this is really organized!
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#10 Postby NONAME » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:16 pm

Um I dont think it has a Closed low sorry.
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#11 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:17 pm

We should probably ask a Pro-Met.
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#12 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:19 pm

It looks very good with a large are of convection. It also has the ECMWF, which only develops systems when they have a really good chance. Also the bad news is we are going to need to use the quickscats to find a closed LLC. No obs out here.
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#13 Postby bombarderoazul » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:19 pm

This might be the Epac third storm of the year, looking pretty good so far.
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#14 Postby NONAME » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:26 pm

It Does look good though and I think will become bud do to Favorable Enviorment and should stay that way for atleast a few days it would generall mow W to WNW with NO threat to Mexico or Hawaii
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#15 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:27 pm

its looking really nice - if something like that were in the Atlantic this forum would be going crazy - but that time seems to be getting closer and closer as we move into July and eventually Aug and Sept
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#16 Postby WindRunner » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:36 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

I say they make a Special Advisory because this is really organized!


You'll almost never see a special advisory in the Pacific, as most storms (including this one) don't threaten land. Special advisories are usually intended to inform people of a drastic change in path/intensity that would effect people's evac/prep before the storm. Definately would not see one on a new storm in the middle of the ocean and heading westward.
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#17 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:38 pm

Oh sorry I didn't know that. :)
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#18 Postby WindRunner » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:39 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Oh sorry I didn't know that. :)


Oh no, that's OK, just something that you should know for the future 8-)
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#19 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 10:11 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

You can see where the circulation is with this Invest even if this is IR.
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#20 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:35 am

96L is very broad cirulation...With two area's that could be LLC's one at 10 north/117 west. Another which more convection appears to be transporting to this one at 9.5 north/120 west. Another system which is alot more defined is out to the west of this system. Which has a large ball of convection with what might be a LLC at 12 north/127 west.
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