94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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hriverajr
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#241 Postby hriverajr » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:11 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:IMO 94L is going to get sucked into 93L, not the other way around.


Whats the reasoning behind that? 93 L is a more defined wave but much more disorganized.
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#242 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:12 pm

hriverajr wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:IMO 94L is going to get sucked into 93L, not the other way around.


Whats the reasoning behind that? 93 L is a more defined wave but much more disorganized.


I think it was just a joke 8-)
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#243 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:13 pm

Okay lets just drop what I said because right now I really can't deal with this.
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#244 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:14 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Okay lets just drop what I said because right now I really can't deal with this.


:roflmao:
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#245 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:15 pm

From the 10:30pm TWO:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE AREA REMAIN HIGH AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.


If JB is right then the upper winds will be dying soon, but either way the NHC is still saying there is a chance of some weak development.

BTW, here is what was said for 93L:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.


Looks like the BOC system has a better chance. :wink: lol.

**Also, notice that 94L is moving NW, not W**
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:18 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#246 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:16 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:From the 10:30pm TWO:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE AREA REMAIN HIGH AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.


If JB is right then the upper winds will be dying soon, but either way the NHC is still saying there is a chance of some weak development.


this basically means very little chance for development in NHC talk folks - that is how I take it.
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#247 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:17 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:From the 10:30pm TWO:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE AREA REMAIN HIGH AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.


If JB is right then the upper winds will be dying soon, but either way the NHC is still saying there is a chance of some weak development.


this basically means very little chance for development in NHC talk folks - that is how I take it.
Well it has a better chance than anything else out there right now, so it is noteworthy for sure.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#248 Postby NONAME » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:18 pm

They are giving it mored devlopment Chance then 93L. Ever had from what I see on the Outlooks.
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#249 Postby Opal storm » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:21 pm

NONAME wrote:They are giving it mored devlopment Chance then 93L. Ever had from what I see on the Outlooks.
Probably becuase 93L still has a lot of ground to cover,94L is closer to home so they probably want people to be more aware of it.
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#250 Postby corpusbreeze » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:21 pm

gatorcane wrote:so why does the NHC negate any possibility of development over the next couple of days?
Because they can. The NHC doesn't need ratings to stay afloat, just our good ol hard earned tax dollar. Accuweather on the other hand needs some hype to make that hard earned buck. But I have to say I love to hear JBs hype over the boring NHC outlooks. :D
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#251 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:25 pm

Wow, that TWO almost shocked me.
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#252 Postby spinfan4eva » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:30 pm

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...BUT SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE AREA REMAIN HIGH AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.


I'd say they NHC has beefed up the wording from 530 a little bit--At 530, it was development if any would be slow.

Looks like UL winds favor only at Tropical depression or weak tropical storm but nothing significant-like a hurricane should come from this until the winds become more favorable.

Also on 93L, They said tc development is not expected (though it is mother nature and expect the unexpected)
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#253 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:30 pm

man this thing has a LLC in it and has convection.... I'd say it has a good chance!
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#254 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:33 pm

I think the NHC are being a little generous with 94L. The shear is increasing over the system and it has lost convection. Now 93L has gained convection and the shear is decreasing around it.
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#255 Postby WindRunner » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:33 pm

Epsilon_Fan wrote:man this thing has a LLC in it and has convection.... I'd say it has a good chance!


What proof do we have of a LLC?
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#256 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:34 pm

Not much to it tonight. Thunderstorms are just about gone and it's moving ashore tomorrow. Just a puff of thunderstorms today. Forget about it. Go take the weekend and 4th of July off and have a great time. Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.
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#257 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:35 pm

Too bad our area is expecting rain on the 4th of July.
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#258 Postby NONAME » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:37 pm

I dont think there is any at the moment.
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#259 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:37 pm

wxman57 wrote:Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.


Geez....I wouldn't exactly take it "that" far. A whole month or over with no development, heh?
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#260 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 9:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:Not much to it tonight. Thunderstorms are just about gone and it's moving ashore tomorrow. Just a puff of thunderstorms today. Forget about it. Go take the weekend and 4th of July off and have a great time. Might not see any development for another 4-5 weeks. Just a typical June/July pattern.

On what basis do you expect a "typical" June/July pattern for 4 to 5 weeks if I may ask.


5 Weeks runs into the first week of August for xxxxx sake.
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