Near Bahamas Blob

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

There's a blob off the coast of Florida and about a few thousand miles north of Invest 93L. Any chances of development?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No because it is on the southeast side of a upper level low. Which is being drawn up the western side of a strengthing Azores/Bermuda high. In which is converging the winds from the southwest flow from the southeastern quad of the ULL against the Azores eastly wind flow. Which forms convection/thunderstorms. No not much chance at development.

[arcticfire]

Sure looks a lot better to me then that BOC mess everyone is all excited about.

[Patrick99]

Only way I give it a chance is through persistence. We've had systems arise out of "convergence" before. but 19 out of 20 times, this stuff seems to just dissipate...

[SouthFloridawx]

Actually this area is associated with 93L.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

[CHRISTY]

Really good rain chances heading for south florida....

[Thunder44]

It's been analyized as a part of a surface trough into the Carribean in this morning's discussion:

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEAR BERMUDA HAS MOVED N OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR W ATLC FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM
27N70W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A
SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION EXTENDS FROM 27N63W SSW TO NEAR
21N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/180
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N-27N. BROAD UPPER
HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 14N50W COVERING
THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 21N FROM 30W-65W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 60W-66W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A
VERY LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE N CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY N OF
THE REGION AND INDUCING A SMALL MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 24N50W. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 13N16W
EXTENDING W TO 30W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF 60W
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION.

A Ship just NW of that blob reported a SW wind at 11.7kts with a pressure of 29.98" I think it needs to be watched for surface low development if it persists the next couple of days.

SHIP 12 -24.8 -70.9 220 11.7 - 6.6 8.0 29.98

[gatorcane]

It's been analyized as a part of a surface trough into the Carribean in this morning's discussion:

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEAR BERMUDA HAS MOVED N OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR W ATLC FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM
27N70W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A
SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION EXTENDS FROM 27N63W SSW TO NEAR
21N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/180
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N-27N. BROAD UPPER
HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 14N50W COVERING
THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 21N FROM 30W-65W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 60W-66W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A
VERY LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE N CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY N OF
THE REGION AND INDUCING A SMALL MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 24N50W. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 13N16W
EXTENDING W TO 30W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF 60W
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION.

A Ship just NW of that blob reported a SW wind at 11.7kts with a pressure of 29.98" I think it needs to be watched for surface low development if it persists the next couple of days.

SHIP 12 -24.8 -70.9 220 11.7 - 6.6 8.0 29.98

It does bear watching. This is actually part of 93L interacting with the surface trough but if it persists we should get concerned. Track will be into South Florida with the ridge building.

[arcticfire]

I think it has a stronger chance then people are giving it credit for. All it needs is to develope a LLC and we are in business

[gatorcane]

I think it has a stronger chance then people are giving it credit for. All it needs is to develope a LLC and we are in business

I agree it looks like the cloud tops have very impressive "outflow" - that is they are fanning out very nicely which shows the shear is not quite as high as it is farther south in the Caribbean. The ULL is moving off to the NW and a ridge is building in - so the UL winds will be favorable for development near the Bahamas and into Florida for the next several days as this thing tracks W at about 10-15mph....

Anybody have any ship reports or buoy reports to look at? I noticed one earlier with a pressure drop and SW winds...

[HurricaneHunter914]

I hope this comes to Florida, that thing looks definitly like a rainmaker!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It should be watched, that much is certain. If sticks around for the next 2 - 3 days, then we might have something.

BTW I wonder if this forming area could be what the models were keying on last week, when they were showing a low (perhaps tropical) forming East of the Bahamas?

[feederband]

I hope this comes to Florida, that thing looks definitly like a rainmaker!

Haven't you had enough yet? We have had maybe to much rain here in Lakeland.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Here in Sanford we still have dry conditions and all we need is about 3 more inches of rain and then we'll be back to mormal.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I hope this comes to Florida, that thing looks definitly like a rainmaker!

Haven't you had enough yet? We have had maybe to much rain here in Lakeland.

Im sure the posters that live around Scott Lake would disagree with you...LMAO

[feederband]

I hope this comes to Florida, that thing looks definitly like a rainmaker!

Haven't you had enough yet? We have had maybe to much rain here in Lakeland.

Im sure the posters that live around Scott Lake would disagree with you...LMAO

It will take a decade of rain to fix that if at all...I new a small lake in deltona that did the same thing...It is still bone dry after 15 years it never recoverd..

[HurricaneHunter914]

I love rain though, no matter how downpouring it is I love rain.

[feederband]

For those that don't know what we are talking about..

http://www.tbo.com/news/metro/MGBV1L5LQOE.html

[JonathanBelles]

I hope this comes to Florida, that thing looks definitly like a rainmaker!

Haven't you had enough yet? We have had maybe to much rain here in Lakeland.

and too many hurricanes

[HurricaneHunter914]

Oh yeah I heard about Scott Lake, it might never recover at all though at this rate.