Near Bahamas Blob

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

Near Bahamas Blob

#1 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:48 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

There's a blob off the coast of Florida and about a few thousand miles north of Invest 93L. Any chances of development?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:53 am

No because it is on the southeast side of a upper level low. Which is being drawn up the western side of a strengthing Azores/Bermuda high. In which is converging the winds from the southwest flow from the southeastern quad of the ULL against the Azores eastly wind flow. Which forms convection/thunderstorms. No not much chance at development.
0 likes   

arcticfire
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 189
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 1:58 am
Location: Anchorage, AK
Contact:

#3 Postby arcticfire » Fri Jun 30, 2006 5:00 am

Sure looks a lot better to me then that BOC mess everyone is all excited about.
0 likes   

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1772
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: SW Broward, FL

#4 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:07 am

Only way I give it a chance is through persistence. We've had systems arise out of "convergence" before. but 19 out of 20 times, this stuff seems to just dissipate...
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#5 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:18 am

Actually this area is associated with 93L.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif
0 likes   

CHRISTY

#6 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:21 am

Really good rain chances heading for south florida....

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#7 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:30 am

It's been analyized as a part of a surface trough into the Carribean in this morning's discussion:

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEAR BERMUDA HAS MOVED N OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR W ATLC FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM
27N70W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A
SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION EXTENDS FROM 27N63W SSW TO NEAR
21N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/180
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N-27N. BROAD UPPER
HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 14N50W COVERING
THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 21N FROM 30W-65W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 60W-66W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A
VERY LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE N CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY N OF
THE REGION AND INDUCING A SMALL MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 24N50W. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 13N16W
EXTENDING W TO 30W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF 60W
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION.

A Ship just NW of that blob reported a SW wind at 11.7kts with a pressure of 29.98" I think it needs to be watched for surface low development if it persists the next couple of days.

SHIP 12 -24.8 -70.9 220 11.7 - 6.6 8.0 29.98
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#8 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:53 am

Thunder44 wrote:It's been analyized as a part of a surface trough into the Carribean in this morning's discussion:

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEAR BERMUDA HAS MOVED N OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR W ATLC FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM
27N70W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A
SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION EXTENDS FROM 27N63W SSW TO NEAR
21N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/180
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N-27N. BROAD UPPER
HIGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 14N50W COVERING
THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 21N FROM 30W-65W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 60W-66W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A
VERY LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE N CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY N OF
THE REGION AND INDUCING A SMALL MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 24N50W. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 13N16W
EXTENDING W TO 30W AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF 60W
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION.

A Ship just NW of that blob reported a SW wind at 11.7kts with a pressure of 29.98" I think it needs to be watched for surface low development if it persists the next couple of days.

SHIP 12 -24.8 -70.9 220 11.7 - 6.6 8.0 29.98


It does bear watching. This is actually part of 93L interacting with the surface trough but if it persists we should get concerned. Track will be into South Florida with the ridge building.
0 likes   

arcticfire
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 189
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 1:58 am
Location: Anchorage, AK
Contact:

#9 Postby arcticfire » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:17 am

I think it has a stronger chance then people are giving it credit for. All it needs is to develope a LLC and we are in business
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#10 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:21 am

arcticfire wrote:I think it has a stronger chance then people are giving it credit for. All it needs is to develope a LLC and we are in business


I agree it looks like the cloud tops have very impressive "outflow" - that is they are fanning out very nicely which shows the shear is not quite as high as it is farther south in the Caribbean. The ULL is moving off to the NW and a ridge is building in - so the UL winds will be favorable for development near the Bahamas and into Florida for the next several days as this thing tracks W at about 10-15mph....

Anybody have any ship reports or buoy reports to look at? I noticed one earlier with a pressure drop and SW winds...
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#11 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:23 am

I hope this comes to Florida, that thing looks definitly like a rainmaker!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2813
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

#12 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Jun 30, 2006 9:55 am

It should be watched, that much is certain. If sticks around for the next 2 - 3 days, then we might have something.

BTW I wonder if this forming area could be what the models were keying on last week, when they were showing a low (perhaps tropical) forming East of the Bahamas?
0 likes   

User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#13 Postby feederband » Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:12 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I hope this comes to Florida, that thing looks definitly like a rainmaker!


Haven't you had enough yet? We have had maybe to much rain here in Lakeland.
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#14 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:14 am

Here in Sanford we still have dry conditions and all we need is about 3 more inches of rain and then we'll be back to mormal.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#15 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:30 am

feederband wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I hope this comes to Florida, that thing looks definitly like a rainmaker!


Haven't you had enough yet? We have had maybe to much rain here in Lakeland.


Im sure the posters that live around Scott Lake would disagree with you...LMAO
0 likes   

User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#16 Postby feederband » Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:36 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
feederband wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I hope this comes to Florida, that thing looks definitly like a rainmaker!


Haven't you had enough yet? We have had maybe to much rain here in Lakeland.


Im sure the posters that live around Scott Lake would disagree with you...LMAO



It will take a decade of rain to fix that if at all...I new a small lake in deltona that did the same thing...It is still bone dry after 15 years it never recoverd..
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#17 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:37 am

I love rain though, no matter how downpouring it is I love rain.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#18 Postby feederband » Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:37 am

For those that don't know what we are talking about..

http://www.tbo.com/news/metro/MGBV1L5LQOE.html
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#19 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:39 am

feederband wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I hope this comes to Florida, that thing looks definitly like a rainmaker!


Haven't you had enough yet? We have had maybe to much rain here in Lakeland.


and too many hurricanes :grrr: :lol:
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#20 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:40 am

Oh yeah I heard about Scott Lake, it might never recover at all though at this rate.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Jr0d, Shawee, Sps123 and 38 guests