Invest 95L,E of Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[ronjon]

I don't see anything there...just a super potent ridge.

yep....

Bermuda Ridge is forecast to strengthen and expand westward. Compare TPC forecast from 24 to 48 hrs.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[CHRISTY]

it may get driven on a W TO WNW direction....what u guys think?

[WindRunner]

That shows what the stills don't: it appears to have a nice circulation patter, but the problem is the circulation is unwinding . . . generally that means that it isn't going to develop all that fast for now

[JamesFromMaine2]

well this post I am editing may give to many people the wrong idea and its not worth it!

[Cyclenall]

I am not bashing any one or anything by saying this but it seems like after last year all the pro-mets on here seem to be tired out and not wanting anything to develop. Every single system so far this year they have all been saying will not develop even if the NHC is saying they will or have a chance to develop.

I noticed that as well.

[Hyperstorm]

I am not bashing any one or anything by saying this but it seems like after last year all the pro-mets on here seem to be tired out and not wanting anything to develop. Every single system so far this year they have all been saying will not develop even if the NHC is saying they will or have a chance to develop.

Excuse me, but how many have developed so far?..........1.

[ronjon]

it may get driven on a W TO WNW direction....what u guys think?

If the Bermuda High gets stronger, the disturbance will simply ride the southern perhiphery toward the W-NW and eventually will turn north when it rounds the western side of the High when it reaches the latitude of its axis.

[Noles2006]

I am not bashing any one or anything by saying this but it seems like after last year all the pro-mets on here seem to be tired out and not wanting anything to develop. Every single system so far this year they have all been saying will not develop even if the NHC is saying they will or have a chance to develop.

I noticed that as well.

LOL. The pro mets on this board have been damn near 100% correct this year in predicting development. The only invest they jumped on became Alberto. I'd start listening to them instead of freaking out over every little blow up of convection.

[ronjon]

That shows what the stills don't: it appears to have a nice circulation patter, but the problem is the circulation is unwinding . . . generally that means that it isn't going to develop all that fast for now

Cloud tops are cooling over the last few hours. Let's see what the diurnal maxima does tonight. There is a circulation seen at 24-67 on the VIS SAT.

[WindRunner]

I am not bashing any one or anything by saying this but it seems like after last year all the pro-mets on here seem to be tired out and not wanting anything to develop. Every single system so far this year they have all been saying will not develop even if the NHC is saying they will or have a chance to develop.

I noticed that as well.

LOL. The pro mets on this board have been damn near 100% correct this year in predicting development. The only invest they jumped on became Alberto. I'd start listening to them instead of freaking out over every little blow up of convection.

Well said, well said.

[Hyperstorm]

That shows what the stills don't: it appears to have a nice circulation patter, but the problem is the circulation is unwinding . . . generally that means that it isn't going to develop all that fast for now

Cloud tops are cooling over the last few hours. Let's see what the diurnal maxima does tonight. There is a circulation seen at 24-67 on the VIS SAT.

Switch your words...Cloud tops are 'warming'. 'Nocturnal maxima'

[ronjon]

That shows what the stills don't: it appears to have a nice circulation patter, but the problem is the circulation is unwinding . . . generally that means that it isn't going to develop all that fast for now

Cloud tops are cooling over the last few hours. Let's see what the diurnal maxima does tonight. There is a circulation seen at 24-67 on the VIS SAT.

Switch your words...Cloud tops are 'warming'. 'Nocturnal maxima'

I'm dyslexic (sp) most of the time. I'm always putting my shoes on before my pants too.

[skysummit]

Looks like it'll get ripped apart like it's cousin!

[caneman]

I am not bashing any one or anything by saying this but it seems like after last year all the pro-mets on here seem to be tired out and not wanting anything to develop. Every single system so far this year they have all been saying will not develop even if the NHC is saying they will or have a chance to develop.

I noticed that as well.

LOL. The pro mets on this board have been damn near 100% correct this year in predicting development. The only invest they jumped on became Alberto. I'd start listening to them instead of freaking out over every little blow up of convection.

ahmm, No Alberto was not suppose to develop. And the invest was not suppose to get anywhere near classification and it did. Nothing against the mets but sometimes they are the exact opposite of our everything will develop posters. I know it is there job not to alarm people until something is actaully formed but doggone sure would like to hear their opinion on what the future holds for an invest than just stating something that is currently obvious.

[CHRISTY]

[wxman57]

Before you assume that the estimate of a central pressure of 1009mb is correct, you might want to check the latest surface observations around the system:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/95La.gif

As you can see, a better estimate might be about 1021mb. Pressures are very high in the area. I'm not sure what the invest pressure is based upon. But, if you remember, they had estimated the pressure of 94L at 1007 mb when it was closer to 1017mb.

For now, it's just another area of thunderstorms that we need to monitor. But with a cold front approaching from the west, it would seem a northerly track and out to sea would be most probable, in the unlikely event that conditions aloft would become more favorable for development. I think its chances for development are low, but perhaps slightly better than for 94L (maybe 5-10%). Here's a 400-700mb mean flow streamline chart for tomorrow morning:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/95Lb.gif

[caneman]

Looks like it'll get ripped apart like it's cousin!

PLease explain. It's not gonna be rapid intensification but I don't see it getting ripped apart either

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think development is possible, but it should not be a threat to the U.S.

[caneman]

Before you assume that the estimate of a central pressure of 1009mb is correct, you might want to check the latest surface observations around the system:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/95La.gif

As you can see, a better estimate might be about 1021mb. Pressures are very high in the area. I'm not sure what the invest pressure is based upon. But, if you remember, they had estimated the pressure of 94L at 1007 mb when it was closer to 1017mb.

For now, it's just another area of thunderstorms that we need to monitor. But with a cold front approaching from the west, it would seem a northerly track and out to sea would be most probable, in the unlikely event that conditions aloft would become more favorable for development. I think its chances for development are low, but perhaps slightly better than for 94L (maybe 5-10%). Here's a 400-700mb mean flow streamline chart for tomorrow morning:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/95Lb.gif

Thank you. Great job. I learned something.

[Tampa_God]

Looks like it'll get ripped apart like it's cousin!

PLease explain. It's not gonna be rapid intensification but I don't see it getting ripped apart either

I think what he means is that this was actually 94L before it got ripped out by shear and now that we have 95L it will do the same.

Any chance of the shear from the west lighten up a bit?