NW Pacific: Tropical Storm Ewiniar (0603)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The system has fallen apart...There appears to be a large partly closed eye(On 85h), and with the quick scats still showing hurricane force winds. I will say 75 knots for now.

We have to watch if that central Convetion can refire over the center. But I'm forecasting a slow windown for the next 12 to 24 hours any way. Who knows maybe a restrengthing at around 24 to 30 hours. But a weaking at 48 to 60 hours as it moves into stronger shear/cooler sst's.

0 75 knots
6 70 knots
12 60 knots
24 65 knots typhoon
36 70 knots
48 60 knots
60 50 knots
72 45 knots

Forecaster matthew

[Seele]

So did it go through a ERC or did it just do nothing and look worse on us?

Looked like both to me. This morning you could see an outer eyewall forming, but the northerly shear has finally got to it.

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 18.9N 129.1E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 250NM
FORECAST
24HF 062100UTC 20.2N 128.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
45HF 071800UTC 22.8N 127.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
69HF 081800UTC 26.8N 126.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT

[skysummit]

[whereverwx]

What page on HurricaneAlley.net did you get those images from? Whenever I try to access the spaghetti model plots, it requires that I register. If those images are only available to registered users of HurricaneAlley.net, you shouldn’t post them.

[skysummit]

What page on HurricaneAlley.net did you get those images from? Whenever I try to access the spaghetti model plots, it requires that I register. If those images are only available to registered users of HurricaneAlley.net, you shouldn’t post them.

They are NOT from Hurricane Alley. They are made with Global Tracks. I am a licensed user of the software. Any image that is made with Global Tracks is completely legal to post as long as the "Global Tracks/Hurricane Alley" logo is placed on the map.

[whereverwx]

What page on HurricaneAlley.net did you get those images from? Whenever I try to access the spaghetti model plots, it requires that I register. If those images are only available to registered users of HurricaneAlley.net, you shouldn’t post them.

They are NOT from Hurricane Alley. They are made with Global Tracks. I am a licensed user of the software. Any image that is made with Global Tracks is completely legal to post as long as the "Global Tracks/Hurricane Alley" logo is placed on the map.

Oh, ok, thanks!

[skysummit]

Oh, ok, thanks!

Hey...no problem. That's the only issue with them requiring that the logo is placed on the map. May people think that these maps are coming from a paid website. Just an FYI, when we get an active Invest or Storm in the Atlantic Basin, I'll also be uploading these model plots to my site:

http://www.skysummitweather.com/the_tropics.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So it appears Ewiniar was a Category 4 at maximum strength...fairly intense
I'd say.

[HURAKAN]

Trying to reintensify as the eye is coming back to light!!!

[skysummit]

Yup....it's forecasted to regain Cat 4 intensity again before it weakens as it makes it's way to the north.

[dwsqos2]

This is a bit old, but no change from the JMA.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 19.2N 128.8E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 20.3N 127.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
48HF 080000UTC 23.0N 127.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
72HF 090000UTC 27.0N 125.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT

[HurricaneHunter914]

That's why I don't like JMA, even when this system DID have Cat-4 winds they failed to upgrade this to ST Ewinar.

[Cyclenall]

Yes it's forecasted to regain Cat 4 intensity before weakening and it's going through a ERC it looks. Last night it looked like it was doing that but I'm not sure what happened . It looks better now again though.

[WindRunner]

That's why I don't like JMA, even when this system DID have Cat-4 winds they failed to upgrade this to ST Ewinar.

No, it's just that the definition of a STY is 130kt winds, and since the JMA uses a 10min average wind, 130kt is a good ways into the Cat 5 range. JMA did not FAIL to do anything, rather the storm failed to strengthen enough. The JTWC probably had a very accurate intensity for the 1-min winds (130kt max), as that corresponds well to the minimum pressure of 920hPa.

[HURAKAN]

To get a 130 knots 10-min typhoon, you will need 148.2 knots 1-min. Very few typhoons each year go this far.

[P.K.]

That's why I don't like JMA, even when this system DID have Cat-4 winds they failed to upgrade this to ST Ewinar.

There is no such thing as a supertyphoon to the JMA. Have a look at the link I posted previously in this thread for storm definitions in the NW Pacific.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 20.6N 127.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 071800UTC 22.9N 126.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
48HF 081800UTC 26.3N 126.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
72HF 091800UTC 31.7N 125.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT

[cycloneye]

Ver interesting the track that goes to a place that is in the news right now.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Maybe this storm will hush up that dictator in N. Korea

[WindRunner]

The track has been shifting westward, maybe Pyongyang can take a direct hit. It'll probably still be around 70kts per JTWC at that point if you interpolate and take into account the lack of landfall on a more westward track. Could get kinda funny here . . .