Little Bahama Mama in the Gulf

[beachbum_al]

She didn't look too good this morning.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm not giving up on her yet. She will return like a thief in the night wreaking havoc upon the gulf coast.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I don't think havoc would be the right word since you guys are dying for rain.

[x-y-no]

She didn't look too good this morning.

Sure doesn't.

Yesterday, I gave it an outside chance of getting to TD, now with the loss of convection, I give it essentially no chance. Even if it flares up some today, it's not really headed for that sweet spot in the upper air pattern, so I doubt any flareup would be sustained.

[Stormavoider]

With the rotation north of the west end of Cuba moving west into the loop current, it seems to me there is a good chance of this thing getting going. You folks with a good understanding of all the dynamics can maybe tell me where I am going wrong.

[gatorcane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141503
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICS ARE QUIET AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[Stormcenter]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141503
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICS ARE QUIET AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

Well that puts an end to that for now or at least until the 4pm update.

By the way there is a little more convection starting up in last few frames in area of the swirl.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[AnnularCane]

I don't think havoc would be the right word since you guys are dying for rain.

Probably so. Maybe she will be a nice girl and give everybody the rain they need, assuming Mr. Shear doesn't kill her off completely.

[beachbum_al]

Looking at the radar that they were showing on the new the rain is going to stay south of us along the Alabama Coast but you folks in MS and LA might get something later on today in the form of rain. Yes, we are dying for rain here. It is so bad that some towns/cities are banning usage of water for things like watering lawns, washing cars, etc. And they are urging people to limit their washing etc. So the rain would be a welcome event here in Alabama.

One of the local mets here...don't remember the station....said that even a tropical storm unless it was like Hurricane Danny in 1997 that dropped a large amount of rain on us (large amount) would not get us out of the drought.

[HouTXmetro]

Looking at the radar that they were showing on the new the rain is going to stay south of us along the Alabama Coast but you folks in MS and LA might get something later on today in the form of rain. Yes, we are dying for rain here. It is so bad that some towns/cities are banning usage of water for things like watering lawns, washing cars, etc. And they are urging people to limit their washing etc. So the rain would be a welcome event here in Alabama.

One of the local mets here...don't remember the station....said that even a tropical storm unless it was like Hurricane Danny in 1997 that dropped a large amount of rain on us (large amount) would not get us out of the drought.

Well have two stagnant upper/mid lows move through your area in the course of a month and your drought will be gone quick.

[southerngale]

I don't think havoc would be the right word since you guys are dying for rain.

Since you said that to someone in Houston, I just figured I'd point out that most, if not all of Southeast Texas is not dying for rain. We have had TOO MUCH since Memorial Day, including several flooding events. Before Memorial Day weekend, we were in a really bad drought. Not anymore.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Sorry, I meant LA, MS, and AL since they seem to be in a current drought right now.

[southerngale]

No reason to be sorry...I was just pointing it out since your reply was to HouTXmetro.

Btw, there are still many parts of Texas that need rain badly.

[skysummit]

Yes, we do need rain in south Louisana....well, of all La for that matter (except for the far western part) because we're in the worst drought in 100 years. They're calling it the "Drought of the Century".

[Stormavoider]

It looks like convection is flaring up a little around the center of this circulation at 24N 86W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Stormcenter]

It looks like convection is flaring up a little around the center of this circulation at 24N 86W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Yep, wouldn't that be something if this developed after all.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Stormavoider]

This seems to be in its path.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

88 degree water temp.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

It looks like convection is flaring up a little around the center of this circulation at 24N 86W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

No surface circulation is evident. There is a weak upper level low near 27.0 north and 85.0 west which is providing northwesterly shear over the tropical wave.

This wave will likely reach the Texas coast on Sunday with no development.