Little Bahama Mama in the Gulf
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- beachbum_al
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- HouTXmetro
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I don't think havoc would be the right word since you guys are dying for rain.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- x-y-no
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beachbum_al wrote:She didn't look too good this morning.
Sure doesn't.
Yesterday, I gave it an outside chance of getting to TD, now with the loss of convection, I give it essentially no chance. Even if it flares up some today, it's not really headed for that sweet spot in the upper air pattern, so I doubt any flareup would be sustained.
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- gatorcane
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 141503
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TROPICS ARE QUIET AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
ABNT20 KNHC 141503
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TROPICS ARE QUIET AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
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gatorcane wrote:000
ABNT20 KNHC 141503
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TROPICS ARE QUIET AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
Well that puts an end to that for now or at least until the 4pm update.

By the way there is a little more convection starting up in last few frames in area of the swirl.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
Last edited by Stormcenter on Fri Jul 14, 2006 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- AnnularCane
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- beachbum_al
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Looking at the radar that they were showing on the new the rain is going to stay south of us along the Alabama Coast but you folks in MS and LA might get something later on today in the form of rain. Yes, we are dying for rain here. It is so bad that some towns/cities are banning usage of water for things like watering lawns, washing cars, etc. And they are urging people to limit their washing etc. So the rain would be a welcome event here in Alabama.
One of the local mets here...don't remember the station....said that even a tropical storm unless it was like Hurricane Danny in 1997 that dropped a large amount of rain on us (large amount) would not get us out of the drought.
One of the local mets here...don't remember the station....said that even a tropical storm unless it was like Hurricane Danny in 1997 that dropped a large amount of rain on us (large amount) would not get us out of the drought.
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- HouTXmetro
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beachbum_al wrote:Looking at the radar that they were showing on the new the rain is going to stay south of us along the Alabama Coast but you folks in MS and LA might get something later on today in the form of rain. Yes, we are dying for rain here. It is so bad that some towns/cities are banning usage of water for things like watering lawns, washing cars, etc. And they are urging people to limit their washing etc. So the rain would be a welcome event here in Alabama.
One of the local mets here...don't remember the station....said that even a tropical storm unless it was like Hurricane Danny in 1997 that dropped a large amount of rain on us (large amount) would not get us out of the drought.
Well have two stagnant upper/mid lows move through your area in the course of a month and your drought will be gone quick.
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
- southerngale
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HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I don't think havoc would be the right word since you guys are dying for rain.
Since you said that to someone in Houston, I just figured I'd point out that most, if not all of Southeast Texas is not dying for rain. We have had TOO MUCH since Memorial Day, including several flooding events. Before Memorial Day weekend, we were in a really bad drought. Not anymore.
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Sorry, I meant LA, MS, and AL since they seem to be in a current drought right now.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- southerngale
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It looks like convection is flaring up a little around the center of this circulation at 24N 86W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
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Stormavoider wrote:It looks like convection is flaring up a little around the center of this circulation at 24N 86W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
Yep, wouldn't that be something if this developed after all.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
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This seems to be in its path.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001
88 degree water temp.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001
88 degree water temp.
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- Professional-Met
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Stormavoider wrote:It looks like convection is flaring up a little around the center of this circulation at 24N 86W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
No surface circulation is evident. There is a weak upper level low near 27.0 north and 85.0 west which is providing northwesterly shear over the tropical wave.
This wave will likely reach the Texas coast on Sunday with no development.
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