Tropical Storm Beryl

Rainband · #141 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 4:41 pm

OuterBanker wrote:NAM has it backing toward Hatteras then taking off to NE. Then there may be a piece that stays off Fla. I think that things are going to really wind up here shortly. I also think that the secnario for US hits is also setting up. The fact that the waters in eastern and mid atlantic are cooler is bad news. It allows these well formed systems that exit the African coast and then die out regenerate when they get in the west Atlantic instead of curving out to sea. What a beauty exiting Africa this am eh?

Kind of interesting Thanks for that perspective OB

cheezyWXguy · #142 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 4:59 pm

convections beginning to fire over the "center" of this system and it looks like its getting better organized, along with more defined cyclonic turning

#143 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 5:14 pm

kenl01 wrote:Some interesting model runs from this evening. Two of them, the BAMM and BAMS take the system west into either North FL or coastal GA; the LBAR takes it into SC; the others out to sea.........

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

BEWARE the BAM models for any system in the subtropics (north of 20N latitude). The BAM models are simple trajectory models that remove the "storm" from the mean flow, analyze the general flow, and then re-insert the storm into the flow to see where it would go over the next 5 days if the current flow doesn't change. BAM models are not dynamic, so they won't account for the changing wind flow along the east U.S. Coast over the next few days. Look to the dynamic models like the GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, and maybe NOGAPS for better guidance for this system. One model I absolutely would never look at (seriously) is the NAM. It's uselessness is unmatched for tropical systems.

#144 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 5:36 pm

kenl01 wrote:Some interesting model runs from this evening. Two of them, the BAMM and BAMS take the system west into either North FL or coastal GA; the LBAR takes it into SC; the others out to sea.........
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

I have found that typically when models are spreading out like this it is indicative of slow/stationary movement.

#145 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 5:42 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
kenl01 wrote:Some interesting model runs from this evening. Two of them, the BAMM and BAMS take the system west into either North FL or coastal GA; the LBAR takes it into SC; the others out to sea.........
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

I have found that typically when models are spreading out like this it is indicative of slow/stationary movement.

That can be true, particularly at low latitudes. But in northern latitudes where 97L is located, it's probably more a sign that current steering flow is weak. Problem is, changes occur much more frequently at northern latitudes than in the deep tropics, and the BAM models won't predict those changes.

#146 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 5:42 pm

I haven't been able to check this area out... in fact I just momentarily checked on it during lunch at work. What's going on with it?

#147 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 5:52 pm

NAM keeping it pretty stationary.

cheezyWXguy · #148 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 5:53 pm

wow...maybe its me but that thing looks a bit different than before...not quite as elongated looking...this thing may have a chance yet...I say we at least have the chance of TS beryl here...Im not gonna go any further

#149 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 6:19 pm

This area still looks to be mostly associated with a frontal boundry.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

I wouldn't be half suprised if the trough brings it northward with it.

If the southern end could cut off from the front it has a much better chance at being upgraded.

What's up with QuikScat?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

GFS indicates that it may begin moving more quickly to the north.

Epsilon_Fan · #150 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 6:37 pm

it looks as if convection is still firing near the center but it is still unorganized

#151 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 6:40 pm

If you look at the last frame you can see were the spilt will be takeing place. The low has some bands staring around it

#152 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 6:55 pm

Cycloneye did this in another thread, and I figured I'd do it because its funny as ever, anyways, from Monk-e-Mail to you guys in the best reporter voice they had http://www.careerbuilder.com/monk-e-mail/?mid=11732010 *fixed by Rainband*

#153 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 6:56 pm

#154 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 7:04 pm

8 PM Discussion from TPC

:uarrow:

Above is the 8 PM discussion from TPC.I could not find a single word in there about the area where 97L is.I am right or someone can find a sentence that says something about this area?

#155 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 7:19 pm

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 31.3 75.4 190./ 5.0

6 31.6 75.1 45./ 3.1

12 32.2 74.6 42./ 8.3

18 32.8 73.8 54./ 8.4

24 33.2 73.2 56./ 6.4

30 34.4 72.8 15./12.6

36 35.9 72.9 359./15.1

42 37.0 72.4 27./11.0

48 38.0 71.0 52./15.3

54 38.7 69.9 57./10.9

60 39.7 68.9 45./12.2

66 40.5 67.6 60./13.2

72 41.2 66.9 42./ 9.0

78 41.8 66.7 20./ 6.3

84 42.6 66.5 14./ 7.7

90 43.6 66.2 14./10.2

STORM DISSIPATED AT 90 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

#156 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 7:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:8 PM Discussion from TPC

Above is the 8 PM discussion from TPC.I could not find a single word in there about the area where 97L is.I am right or someone can find a sentence that says something about this area?

They do depict this feature on the TWD graphic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

cheezyWXguy · #157 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 7:22 pm

wow...thats up from the 12 hours before...

#158 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 7:28 pm

GFDL does bring the winds associated with 97L to tropical storm force as it moves Northward through a weakness in the ridge.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

I'll be interested to see if on the Cyclone Phase page if this will be warm or cold core in nature.

#159 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 7:42 pm

Cycloneye, you're right. I can't find it either. :eek:

#160 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 7:45 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:GFDL does bring the winds associated with 97L to tropical storm force as it moves Northward through a weakness in the ridge.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

I'll be interested to see if on the Cyclone Phase page if this will be warm or cold core in nature.

Actually Cat 1, it peaks at 65 knots...now whether its showing the area as extratropical or tropical at that time remains to be seen...

Tropical Storm Beryl

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