Tropical Storm Beryl

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Noles2006
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 424
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:57 am
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Contact:
Contact Noles2006

Heh.

#241 Postby Noles2006 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:39 am

Noles2006 wrote:
cheezywxman wrote:
george_r_1961 wrote:Well im about ready to say goodbye to 97L..looks worse everytime i look at it. There is little if any convection left. Dry air seems to be killing it. Its getting difficult to find the llc too as it has become even more diffuse. IMO chances of tropical development..at least in the short term..are slim to none.


The why has the probability of cyclone genesys increased?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif


That chart is for the next 24 hours. Think of it like this: yesterday, it looked like if any development was to occur, it would happen on Tuesday [tomorrow] because it needed time to break off from the front to develop tropically, then after that the next trough will come and sweep it away. Well, that 24 hour window has arrived, but there's still a <2% chance of this thing developing. I don't think this will become Beryl.


OOPS! :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#242 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:40 am

Looks like this will get dangerously close to the North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland coasts!
0 likes   
Top
Jim Cantore

#243 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:40 am

cheezywxman wrote:I KNEW IT!!! I KNEW THEY WOULDNT WAIT FOR RECON!!!

here we go! come on beryl!


They're making up for the one they missed yesterday :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tampa_God
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 333
Age: 35
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 7:27 pm
Location: New Port Richey/Trinity, FL

#244 Postby Tampa_God » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:41 am

By the next advisory it should be a Tropical Storm. Is recon still going out though?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Noles2006
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 424
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:57 am
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Contact:
Contact Noles2006

#245 Postby Noles2006 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:42 am

Tampa_God wrote:By the next advisory it should be a Tropical Storm. Is recon still going out though?


Of course.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:
Contact brunota2003

#246 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:43 am

wow...looks like I'll have to hunker down...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2862
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

#247 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:43 am

Beryl? Is that you?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#248 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:44 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Looks like this will get dangerously close to the North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland coasts!


Seems to be following the NAM and MM5 tracks more.
0 likes   
Top
Jim Cantore

#249 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:45 am

I hear a silence in the season cancels all of a sudden 8-)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#250 Postby WindRunner » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:46 am

brunota2003 wrote:wow...looks like I'll have to hunker down...


Well, you are just outside of the TS watch, if you're lucky it'll just be some rain . . .
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Trugunzn
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 549
Joined: Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:59 pm

#251 Postby Trugunzn » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:48 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#252 Postby skysummit » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:49 am

Wow....it looks like they're going with the BAM models. What happened to that north of 30 thing? :lol:
0 likes   
Top
OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1731
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:
Contact OuterBanker

#253 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:50 am

All right, I admit it. I have become a JB follower. Sure he is wrong a number of times (which all METs here jump on), but he is right more than anyone else I've seen. And yes, he could be a little over zealous. But he called this two days ago, he predicted the trough split and the piece left over that could develop. He used the NAM for his gut call and now NWS out of Morehead is going with the NAM which some METs say is the worse model. What will be interesting is which model proves out to be closest on Beryl to be (maybe). My question is why is the BAM the only model that has a move to coast.

Will the BAM be right when all say it is so wrong.

Will the GFDL, UKMET (which shows a glancing blow to the OBX).

So stay tuned to "As The Storm Turns" right here on your STK affiliate!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Noles2006
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 424
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:57 am
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Contact:
Contact Noles2006

#254 Postby Noles2006 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:51 am

Have fun with this one, OuterBankerssssssss! This shouldn't be anything worse than a nice tropical storm!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

#255 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:52 am

i wish i was there
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#256 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:53 am

Hey maybe JB was right about having more activity along the East Coast this season. Hopefully we will have very little if any activity in the GOM.

By the way, I am not by any means -removed- storms on the good people of the East coast. :D
Last edited by Stormcenter on Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#257 Postby skysummit » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:53 am

Oddly enough OuterBanker, the NAM has been the best so far with the two systems we've had.
0 likes   
Top
Jim Cantore

#258 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:54 am

Trugunzn wrote:Image


hey I'm in the cone!
0 likes   
Top
whereverwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1109
Joined: Mon May 31, 2004 10:15 pm

#259 Postby whereverwx » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:00 am

Gerr... I can't believe I was wrong, lol. Although, this morning at around 3 am, it actually looked organized.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Noles2006
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 424
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:57 am
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Contact:
Contact Noles2006

#260 Postby Noles2006 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:01 am

Stormcenter wrote:Hey maybe JB was right about having more activity along the East Coast this season. Hopefully we will have very little if any activity in the GOM.

By the way, I am not by any means -removed- storms on the good people of the East coast. :D


It's early, but a pretty interesting point. This makes it 1 for the GOM and 2 [if you count yesterday's unnamed system... that many believe should have been named a subtropical storm... and also if this is eventually upgraded to TS Beryl] just off the east coast.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2006”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests