Tropical Storm Beryl

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Noles2006
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Heh.

#241 Postby Noles2006 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:39 am

Noles2006 wrote:
cheezywxman wrote:
george_r_1961 wrote:Well im about ready to say goodbye to 97L..looks worse everytime i look at it. There is little if any convection left. Dry air seems to be killing it. Its getting difficult to find the llc too as it has become even more diffuse. IMO chances of tropical development..at least in the short term..are slim to none.


The why has the probability of cyclone genesys increased?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif


That chart is for the next 24 hours. Think of it like this: yesterday, it looked like if any development was to occur, it would happen on Tuesday [tomorrow] because it needed time to break off from the front to develop tropically, then after that the next trough will come and sweep it away. Well, that 24 hour window has arrived, but there's still a <2% chance of this thing developing. I don't think this will become Beryl.


OOPS! :lol:
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Extremeweatherguy
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#242 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:40 am

Looks like this will get dangerously close to the North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland coasts!
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Jim Cantore

#243 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:40 am

cheezywxman wrote:I KNEW IT!!! I KNEW THEY WOULDNT WAIT FOR RECON!!!

here we go! come on beryl!


They're making up for the one they missed yesterday :lol:
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#244 Postby Tampa_God » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:41 am

By the next advisory it should be a Tropical Storm. Is recon still going out though?
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Noles2006
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#245 Postby Noles2006 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:42 am

Tampa_God wrote:By the next advisory it should be a Tropical Storm. Is recon still going out though?


Of course.
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brunota2003
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#246 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:43 am

wow...looks like I'll have to hunker down...
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#247 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:43 am

Beryl? Is that you?
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#248 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:44 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Looks like this will get dangerously close to the North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland coasts!


Seems to be following the NAM and MM5 tracks more.
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Jim Cantore

#249 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:45 am

I hear a silence in the season cancels all of a sudden 8-)
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#250 Postby WindRunner » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:46 am

brunota2003 wrote:wow...looks like I'll have to hunker down...


Well, you are just outside of the TS watch, if you're lucky it'll just be some rain . . .
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#251 Postby Trugunzn » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:48 am

Image
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#252 Postby skysummit » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:49 am

Wow....it looks like they're going with the BAM models. What happened to that north of 30 thing? :lol:
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#253 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:50 am

All right, I admit it. I have become a JB follower. Sure he is wrong a number of times (which all METs here jump on), but he is right more than anyone else I've seen. And yes, he could be a little over zealous. But he called this two days ago, he predicted the trough split and the piece left over that could develop. He used the NAM for his gut call and now NWS out of Morehead is going with the NAM which some METs say is the worse model. What will be interesting is which model proves out to be closest on Beryl to be (maybe). My question is why is the BAM the only model that has a move to coast.

Will the BAM be right when all say it is so wrong.

Will the GFDL, UKMET (which shows a glancing blow to the OBX).

So stay tuned to "As The Storm Turns" right here on your STK affiliate!
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Noles2006
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#254 Postby Noles2006 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:51 am

Have fun with this one, OuterBankerssssssss! This shouldn't be anything worse than a nice tropical storm!
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cheezyWXguy
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#255 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:52 am

i wish i was there
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Stormcenter
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#256 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:53 am

Hey maybe JB was right about having more activity along the East Coast this season. Hopefully we will have very little if any activity in the GOM.

By the way, I am not by any means -removed- storms on the good people of the East coast. :D
Last edited by Stormcenter on Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#257 Postby skysummit » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:53 am

Oddly enough OuterBanker, the NAM has been the best so far with the two systems we've had.
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Jim Cantore

#258 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:54 am

Trugunzn wrote:Image


hey I'm in the cone!
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#259 Postby whereverwx » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:00 am

Gerr... I can't believe I was wrong, lol. Although, this morning at around 3 am, it actually looked organized.
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Noles2006
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#260 Postby Noles2006 » Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:01 am

Stormcenter wrote:Hey maybe JB was right about having more activity along the East Coast this season. Hopefully we will have very little if any activity in the GOM.

By the way, I am not by any means -removed- storms on the good people of the East coast. :D


It's early, but a pretty interesting point. This makes it 1 for the GOM and 2 [if you count yesterday's unnamed system... that many believe should have been named a subtropical storm... and also if this is eventually upgraded to TS Beryl] just off the east coast.
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