98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Starburst]

what happened to the front that was supposed to interact with 98L?

it washed out

[NDG]

what happened to the front that was supposed to interact with 98L?

All that is left of it is just a trough of low pressure along the northern gulf coast, and moving north.

[HouTXmetro]

my thinking

[Thunder44]

The reason why most of the convection is remains offshore, is because the upper-level winds are shearing the thunderstorms away from low pressure center which is just inland. Another Low pressure or LLC may form under the convection, but there is 25kt to 35kt shear over it now, and it doesn't appear to be decreasing this morning, so it will be very hard for it too form

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

I don't think shear has anything to do with it, I think that because half of it still over water, diurnal max tropical convection would happen over water versus land.

It's really the upper-level winds (the shear) interacting with the low pressure area. The shear is bringing in dry air from the mountains of Mexico and meeting with influx of low-level moisture coming from the GOM. This creates convergence and causes convection to fire up along and off the Mexico coast.

[NDG]

The reason why most of the convection is remains offshore, is because the upper-level winds are shearing the thunderstorms away from low pressure center which is just inland. Another Low pressure or LLC may form under the convection, but there is 25kt to 35kt shear over it now, and it doesn't appear to be decreasing this morning, so it will be very hard for it too form

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

I don't think shear has anything to do with it, I think that because half of it still over water, diurnal max tropical convection would happen over water versus land.

It's really the upper-level winds (the shear) interacting with the low pressure area. The shear is bringing in dry air from the mountains of Mexico and meeting with influx of low-level moisture coming from the GOM. This creates convergence and causes convection to fire up along and off the Mexico coast.

I'm sorry, I still disagree w/you.

[Stormcenter]

Even if this doesn't develop there still some serious storms heading northward into the Western/Northern GOM coastline.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[southerngale]

The 8:05am TWD explains where the surface low is and what's causing the convection.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS DRIFTING NORTHWARD.
SURFACE LOW IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AIDING IN THE
GENERATION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IN THE NW
GULF WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N92W TO THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
24N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 90W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS
OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE COAST IN WHICH CASE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD DEVELOP. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP IT WILL STILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS.

[HURAKAN]

I think time is up for this disturbance. It continues very close to land and the only thing north of it is land!

[Stormcenter]

I think time is up for this disturbance. It continues very close to land and the only thing north of it is land!

Unless a new "center" reforms over the deep convection in the GOM,unlikely but possible.

[tailgater]

I think time is up for this disturbance. It continues very close to land and the only thing north of it is land!

Yes I'm ready to call it dead also, IMO the Low center is 50 or so miles SW of Brownsville moving North. The only way it would form is IF it would start working it's way down from a MLC and I highly doubt it would have time to do so.
Still there's lots of moisture out there that could cause flooding.

[NDG]

Even if this doesn't develop there still some serious storms heading northward into the Western/Northern GOM coastline.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

thank you for mentioning the northern GOM coastline, as they will also see plenty of rain aswell, not just the TX coastline as some are only mentioning.

[drezee]

What every LLC that I can see is onshore just S of Brownsville on the visible sat.

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Something curious has occured at NRL.They changed the number of the invest,now is 96L.I think it's a glitch.

[HURAKAN]

It's also in the back-up. Moreover, they are following a center @ 22.8 N 96.9 W, which is over water.

[Thunder44]

Don't know if this will be verified but 12z Ship reported sustained SSW winds at 44kts. This is south of Central Louisana.

SHIP S 1200 26.60 -92.10 152 55 200 44.1 - 8.2 7.0 - - 29.99

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: It's also in the back-up. Moreover, they are following a center @ 22.8 N 96.9 W, which is over water.

Yes,now as I looked at the pic,it is another position more south and in the water than the one at 97.9w and 25n.Interesting.

[beachbum_al]

I am not ready to write this one off yet. I don't think it will be much but a rain maker but better to be on the safe side and watch than be caught off guard. Definitely a rain maker for the Gulf Coast for several days.

[cycloneye]

Folks,I edited the title to change the invest number to 96L.

[Thunder44]

:uarrow: It's also in the back-up. Moreover, they are following a center @ 22.8 N 96.9 W, which is over water.

Yes,now as I looked at the pic,it is another position more south and in the water than the one at 97.9w and 25n.Interesting.

Looking at some of the latest obs it does appear that the "low" has moved in to somewhere south or SW of Browsville, over land.

[rockyman]

NRL appears to have shifted its focus to the south...perhaps NRL have "given up" on the low just south of Brownsville (since it's overland), but still believes that development is possible...so the next candidate would be near the blob just off the Mexican coast near 23N

(or perhaps that's just old tracking data or a glitch...and it means nothing)