98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

kjun · #381 Postby **kjun** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:26 pm

This is an impressive looking tropical wave. I have seen TS that look far less intense.

#382 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:26 pm

Now where is that low over Mexico? I'm sorry I can't see it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

#383 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:29 pm

Check out this radar image. The box for the marine warning is on the area of interest. IMO

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

#384 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:29 pm

kjun wrote:This is an impressive looking tropical wave. I have seen TS that look far less intense.

All kidding aside, it really does look impressive. The banding is there.

HurricaneHunter914 · #385 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:30 pm

The NHC is just being conservative so it doesn't cause people to panic.

PTrackerLA · #386 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:31 pm

They seemed to have totally ignored the possibility of an LLC forming just east of Brownsville. We'll see what happens but it's looking more interesting by the hour IMO.

wxman22 · #387 Postby **wxman22** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:32 pm

Now where is that low over Mexico? I'm sorry I can't see it.

There refering to the LLC thats inland. I would'nt even bother with that anymore Im more concern with the possible low forming to the east of brownsville. Im going to go out on a limb and say a 50/50 chance of tropical deppresion formation...

#388 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:32 pm

If recon would be there now it would clarify all of what it's going on.But there is no mission for it today,so they will rely on bouys,ships that may be in the area and sat estimates to make any call of upgrading or not this disturbance.

Derek Ortt · #389 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:32 pm

Brownsville reported east winds as of 1600 UTC

bbadon · #390 Postby **bbadon** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:34 pm

the same day tropical storm Allison formed they did the same thing. TWO and TWD said no formation expected by 2:00p.m. we had Allison.

#391 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:34 pm

wxman22 wrote:
Now where is that low over Mexico? I'm sorry I can't see it.

There refering to the LLC thats inland. I would'nt even bother with that anymore Im more concern with the possible low forming to the east of brownsville. Im going to go out on a limb and say a 50/50 chance of tropical deppresion formation...

There is a new ball of convection forming further east of Brownsville in the GOM.

vaffie · #392 Postby **vaffie** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:34 pm

It does indeed look impressive. It appears that the mid-level low southeast of Brownsville is approximately stationary. The 1008 mb surface low discussed by the NHC is moving NNE by their reckoning. As it approaches the MLC (which we can easily see on the satellite), the two will begin to overlap, and feed each other, so that over the next 24 hours, there may be rather rapid tropical development in my opinion. It may really start to get going after 9 pm tonight. Overnight, it could morph into a powerful tropical storm.

HurricaneHunter914 · #393 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:36 pm

I don't get it, it is clear that there is a new LLC forming well east of Brownsville and this definitly looks like a TS, so why not upgrade. remember what they said last year about Vince,"If it looks like a hurricane, it probably is."

#394 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:38 pm

Vaffie, I generally agree. the system is still a disorganized mess and until the centers can consolidate it won't develop. My concern is that with a upper-level high pressure, shear collapsing, and high SSTs, once (IF) it organizes, it could "gel" rather quickly. It just doesn't have a whole lot of room.

#395 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:39 pm

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982006) ON 20060725 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060725 1800 060726 0600 060726 1800 060727 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.9N 98.0W 27.1N 98.0W 28.4N 98.2W 29.6N 99.1W
BAMM 25.9N 98.0W 27.3N 98.3W 28.6N 98.6W 29.8N 99.2W
A98E 25.9N 98.0W 27.9N 97.8W 29.7N 97.2W 31.0N 96.3W
LBAR 25.9N 98.0W 27.4N 98.0W 28.7N 98.0W 29.7N 97.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060727 1800 060728 1800 060729 1800 060730 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.8N 100.2W 33.3N 101.4W 35.3N 100.6W 36.2N 98.7W
BAMM 31.1N 100.0W 33.8N 100.6W 36.0N 99.5W 37.4N 97.7W
A98E 32.2N 95.5W 34.3N 93.8W 36.6N 90.6W 36.9N 85.2W
LBAR 30.7N 97.8W 33.8N 96.8W 36.9N 93.1W 37.6N 87.0W
SHIP 42KTS 47KTS 47KTS 46KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.9N LONCUR = 98.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 23.6N LONM12 = 97.9W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 21.8N LONM24 = 97.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The models are not useful at this time but anyway I post this for information to the members.This is the 18:00z run of the BAM Models.

Derek Ortt · #396 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:40 pm

it is not clear that there is a new LLC forming east of Brownsville.

Shouldn't posts like that have the disclaimer, as one can come onto this forum and think that this is developing, when it is not

#397 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:41 pm

jschlitz wrote:Vaffie, I generally agree. the system is still a disorganized mess and until the centers can consolidate it won't develop. My concern is that with a upper-level high pressure, shear collapsing, and high SSTs, once (IF) it organizes, it could "gel" rather quickly. It just doesn't have a whole lot of room.

I've seen some tropical storms and hurricanes look alot worse.

#398 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:44 pm

like daniel right now

southerngale · #399 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:46 pm

The rain isn't having any trouble coming ashore in the Beaumont area. I was in Port Arthur all morning, and here and there and everywhere in between...nothing but rain. It's varied from moderate to heavy, but it's quite consistent. Looking at long range radar, there's no end in sight, but it does get lighter between the heavy bands that come ashore.

Edited to include a radar link: http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... odnav=none

#400 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:47 pm

well if you get too much rain, id like some, but get rid of the drought and heat first!

98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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