98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[kjun]

This is an impressive looking tropical wave. I have seen TS that look far less intense.

[Stormcenter]

Now where is that low over Mexico? I'm sorry I can't see it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Wpwxguy]

Check out this radar image. The box for the marine warning is on the area of interest. IMO

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

[Stormcenter]

This is an impressive looking tropical wave. I have seen TS that look far less intense.

All kidding aside, it really does look impressive. The banding is there.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The NHC is just being conservative so it doesn't cause people to panic.

[PTrackerLA]

They seemed to have totally ignored the possibility of an LLC forming just east of Brownsville. We'll see what happens but it's looking more interesting by the hour IMO.

[wxman22]

Now where is that low over Mexico? I'm sorry I can't see it.

There refering to the LLC thats inland. I would'nt even bother with that anymore Im more concern with the possible low forming to the east of brownsville. Im going to go out on a limb and say a 50/50 chance of tropical deppresion formation...

[cycloneye]

If recon would be there now it would clarify all of what it's going on.But there is no mission for it today,so they will rely on bouys,ships that may be in the area and sat estimates to make any call of upgrading or not this disturbance.

[Derek Ortt]

Brownsville reported east winds as of 1600 UTC

[bbadon]

the same day tropical storm Allison formed they did the same thing. TWO and TWD said no formation expected by 2:00p.m. we had Allison.

[Stormcenter]

Now where is that low over Mexico? I'm sorry I can't see it.

There refering to the LLC thats inland. I would'nt even bother with that anymore Im more concern with the possible low forming to the east of brownsville. Im going to go out on a limb and say a 50/50 chance of tropical deppresion formation...

There is a new ball of convection forming further east of Brownsville in the GOM.

[vaffie]

It does indeed look impressive. It appears that the mid-level low southeast of Brownsville is approximately stationary. The 1008 mb surface low discussed by the NHC is moving NNE by their reckoning. As it approaches the MLC (which we can easily see on the satellite), the two will begin to overlap, and feed each other, so that over the next 24 hours, there may be rather rapid tropical development in my opinion. It may really start to get going after 9 pm tonight. Overnight, it could morph into a powerful tropical storm.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I don't get it, it is clear that there is a new LLC forming well east of Brownsville and this definitly looks like a TS, so why not upgrade. remember what they said last year about Vince,"If it looks like a hurricane, it probably is."

[jasons2k]

Vaffie, I generally agree. the system is still a disorganized mess and until the centers can consolidate it won't develop. My concern is that with a upper-level high pressure, shear collapsing, and high SSTs, once (IF) it organizes, it could "gel" rather quickly. It just doesn't have a whole lot of room.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982006) ON 20060725 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060725 1800 060726 0600 060726 1800 060727 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.9N 98.0W 27.1N 98.0W 28.4N 98.2W 29.6N 99.1W
BAMM 25.9N 98.0W 27.3N 98.3W 28.6N 98.6W 29.8N 99.2W
A98E 25.9N 98.0W 27.9N 97.8W 29.7N 97.2W 31.0N 96.3W
LBAR 25.9N 98.0W 27.4N 98.0W 28.7N 98.0W 29.7N 97.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060727 1800 060728 1800 060729 1800 060730 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.8N 100.2W 33.3N 101.4W 35.3N 100.6W 36.2N 98.7W
BAMM 31.1N 100.0W 33.8N 100.6W 36.0N 99.5W 37.4N 97.7W
A98E 32.2N 95.5W 34.3N 93.8W 36.6N 90.6W 36.9N 85.2W
LBAR 30.7N 97.8W 33.8N 96.8W 36.9N 93.1W 37.6N 87.0W
SHIP 42KTS 47KTS 47KTS 46KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.9N LONCUR = 98.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 23.6N LONM12 = 97.9W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 21.8N LONM24 = 97.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


The models are not useful at this time but anyway I post this for information to the members.This is the 18:00z run of the BAM Models.

[Derek Ortt]

it is not clear that there is a new LLC forming east of Brownsville.

Shouldn't posts like that have the disclaimer, as one can come onto this forum and think that this is developing, when it is not

[Stormcenter]

Vaffie, I generally agree. the system is still a disorganized mess and until the centers can consolidate it won't develop. My concern is that with a upper-level high pressure, shear collapsing, and high SSTs, once (IF) it organizes, it could "gel" rather quickly. It just doesn't have a whole lot of room.

I've seen some tropical storms and hurricanes look alot worse.

[JonathanBelles]

like daniel right now

[southerngale]

The rain isn't having any trouble coming ashore in the Beaumont area. I was in Port Arthur all morning, and here and there and everywhere in between...nothing but rain. It's varied from moderate to heavy, but it's quite consistent. Looking at long range radar, there's no end in sight, but it does get lighter between the heavy bands that come ashore.


Edited to include a radar link: http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... odnav=none

[JonathanBelles]

well if you get too much rain, id like some, but get rid of the drought and heat first!