Wave in Central Caribbean

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#221 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Jul 26, 2006 9:53 pm

latest IR image shows an EXPLOSION in convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

ALSO: JB is still "fearing" that this will end up in the western Gulf by the middle part of next week.
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#222 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 9:55 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

The wave is starting to roar. The Lesser Antilles seems to have little affect on our growing wave.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
bvigal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2276
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:49 am
Location: British Virgin Islands
Contact:

#223 Postby bvigal » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:02 pm

Ship report:

Code: Select all

ID   TIME   LAT   LON   PRES   PTDY   ATMP
   (GMT)         in   in   °F
SHIP   2100   13.6   -62.4   29.82   -0.06   82

0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4270
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

#224 Postby abajan » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:05 pm

About an hour ago, there was quite a bit of distant lightning to my west and north-west. Not so much now, though.
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#225 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:08 pm

What would that mean for this wave if the lightning stopped? (Sorry if the question is dumb).
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#226 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:14 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:What would that mean for this wave if the lightning stopped? (Sorry if the question is dumb).
that a storm near the area of abajan weakened or moved out of that area.
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#227 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:16 pm

Looking at SAT it seems like it did the opposite of weakening IMO.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Furious George
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 126
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2004 9:03 pm

#228 Postby Furious George » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:16 pm

Both accuweather and Jeff Masters suggesting Florida will have to watch out, and it might not be a Gulf threat.

Accuweather:

This wave will bring showers into the southern Bahamas and Hispaniola tomorrow and tomorrow night then might enhance shower and thunderstorm devleopment over the northern Bahamas and perhaps into southeast Florida Friday night into Saturday morning.

Jeff Master's Blog:

A tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west to west-northwest at 15-20 mph. The amount of thunderstorm activity associated with this wave has increased over the past day, as the dry Saharan air surrounding the wave has gradually diluted. However, the wave is now under 30 knots of vertical wind shear. This wind shear is being created by the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico. This low is not expected to move much the next five days, and should continue to create hostile wind shear over the wave. The wave will spread showers and gusty winds to Puerto Rico on Thursday, and the Bahama Islands on Friday and Saturday. By Saturday, as the wave approaches Florida, it will not be as close to the upper-level low, and the shear may lessen, potentially allowing some development. The wave is expected to turn north towards the Carolinas and not enter the Gulf of Mexico.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#229 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:26 pm

Furious George wrote:Both accuweather and Jeff Masters suggesting Florida will have to watch out, and it might not be a Gulf threat.

Accuweather:

This wave will bring showers into the southern Bahamas and Hispaniola tomorrow and tomorrow night then might enhance shower and thunderstorm devleopment over the northern Bahamas and perhaps into southeast Florida Friday night into Saturday morning.

Jeff Master's Blog:

A tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west to west-northwest at 15-20 mph. The amount of thunderstorm activity associated with this wave has increased over the past day, as the dry Saharan air surrounding the wave has gradually diluted. However, the wave is now under 30 knots of vertical wind shear. This wind shear is being created by the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico. This low is not expected to move much the next five days, and should continue to create hostile wind shear over the wave. The wave will spread showers and gusty winds to Puerto Rico on Thursday, and the Bahama Islands on Friday and Saturday. By Saturday, as the wave approaches Florida, it will not be as close to the upper-level low, and the shear may lessen, potentially allowing some development. The wave is expected to turn north towards the Carolinas and not enter the Gulf of Mexico.
I see too strong of a ridge and too fast of a movement for this to not enter the Gulf. I'm not saying FL won't be affected, but I think at some point this will be in the Gulf. Also, another thing to consider is that both discussions you posted are hours old, whereas JB's latest discussion was just recently posted.
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#230 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:29 pm

Shear might win the battle this time though, this thing won't survive if the shear doesn't decrease.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#231 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Jul 26, 2006 10:30 pm

0Z NAM has this system in the NW Caribbean by July 30th (this sunday):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

If this verifies, then the system may be into the Central Gulf by the 31st/1st, and the western Gulf by the 2nd/3rd. Considering I will be driving along the northern Gulf on the 31st and 1st, I will have to watch this one closely!
0 likes   

HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#232 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:11 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

Looks like this wave has a face with it.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6132
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

#233 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:15 pm

it doesnt look happy
0 likes   

User avatar
Grease Monkey
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 727
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 9:25 pm

#234 Postby Grease Monkey » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:16 pm

It looks like it has a long beard too.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#235 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Jul 26, 2006 11:40 pm

This thing is definitely looking better right now. Wonder what the 5:30am TWO will say.
0 likes   

User avatar
ts_kakolina
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 58
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:27 am
Location: Carolina, Puerto Rico

#236 Postby ts_kakolina » Thu Jul 27, 2006 1:52 am

Image
:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:
Very impressive, at least for us in Puerto Rico. Looks like we have a stormy night ahead of us. :eek:
Last edited by ts_kakolina on Thu Jul 27, 2006 5:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
LaPlaceFF
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1303
Age: 58
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 1:21 pm
Location: Gramercy, LA
Contact:

#237 Postby LaPlaceFF » Thu Jul 27, 2006 2:23 am

Ya'll be careful over there our fellow P.R. s2k'ers. Let us know how ya'll fared.
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#238 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 27, 2006 5:02 am

This looks to be a very strong tropical wave...With a MLC at near 21 north/68 west. Strong shear is pulling all the convection to the eastern side of the tropical wave. So no development is expected over the southern Part. I would watch the northern side.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#239 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 27, 2006 5:30 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...FROM PUERTO
RICO...MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   

User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

#240 Postby KatDaddy » Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:09 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

Excerpt:
SUN-MON...GFS HAS BACKED OFF PREVIOUS SCENARIO OF TROPICAL WAVE
REACHING CWA SUNDAY AND NOW IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH ECMWF/UKMET IN
KEEPING RIDGE INTACT AND MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF REGION.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Beef Stew, Lizzytiz1, Orlando_wx and 48 guests