Wave in Central Caribbean

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest IR image shows an EXPLOSION in convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

ALSO: JB is still "fearing" that this will end up in the western Gulf by the middle part of next week.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

The wave is starting to roar. The Lesser Antilles seems to have little affect on our growing wave.

[bvigal]

Ship report:

Code: Select all

ID   TIME   LAT   LON   PRES   PTDY   ATMP
   (GMT)         in   in   °F
SHIP   2100   13.6   -62.4   29.82   -0.06   82



[abajan]

About an hour ago, there was quite a bit of distant lightning to my west and north-west. Not so much now, though.

[HurricaneHunter914]

What would that mean for this wave if the lightning stopped? (Sorry if the question is dumb).

[Extremeweatherguy]

What would that mean for this wave if the lightning stopped? (Sorry if the question is dumb).

that a storm near the area of abajan weakened or moved out of that area.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looking at SAT it seems like it did the opposite of weakening IMO.

[Furious George]

Both accuweather and Jeff Masters suggesting Florida will have to watch out, and it might not be a Gulf threat.

Accuweather:

This wave will bring showers into the southern Bahamas and Hispaniola tomorrow and tomorrow night then might enhance shower and thunderstorm devleopment over the northern Bahamas and perhaps into southeast Florida Friday night into Saturday morning.

Jeff Master's Blog:

A tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west to west-northwest at 15-20 mph. The amount of thunderstorm activity associated with this wave has increased over the past day, as the dry Saharan air surrounding the wave has gradually diluted. However, the wave is now under 30 knots of vertical wind shear. This wind shear is being created by the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico. This low is not expected to move much the next five days, and should continue to create hostile wind shear over the wave. The wave will spread showers and gusty winds to Puerto Rico on Thursday, and the Bahama Islands on Friday and Saturday. By Saturday, as the wave approaches Florida, it will not be as close to the upper-level low, and the shear may lessen, potentially allowing some development. The wave is expected to turn north towards the Carolinas and not enter the Gulf of Mexico.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Both accuweather and Jeff Masters suggesting Florida will have to watch out, and it might not be a Gulf threat.

Accuweather:

This wave will bring showers into the southern Bahamas and Hispaniola tomorrow and tomorrow night then might enhance shower and thunderstorm devleopment over the northern Bahamas and perhaps into southeast Florida Friday night into Saturday morning.

Jeff Master's Blog:

A tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west to west-northwest at 15-20 mph. The amount of thunderstorm activity associated with this wave has increased over the past day, as the dry Saharan air surrounding the wave has gradually diluted. However, the wave is now under 30 knots of vertical wind shear. This wind shear is being created by the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system to the north of Puerto Rico. This low is not expected to move much the next five days, and should continue to create hostile wind shear over the wave. The wave will spread showers and gusty winds to Puerto Rico on Thursday, and the Bahama Islands on Friday and Saturday. By Saturday, as the wave approaches Florida, it will not be as close to the upper-level low, and the shear may lessen, potentially allowing some development. The wave is expected to turn north towards the Carolinas and not enter the Gulf of Mexico.

I see too strong of a ridge and too fast of a movement for this to not enter the Gulf. I'm not saying FL won't be affected, but I think at some point this will be in the Gulf. Also, another thing to consider is that both discussions you posted are hours old, whereas JB's latest discussion was just recently posted.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Shear might win the battle this time though, this thing won't survive if the shear doesn't decrease.

[Extremeweatherguy]

0Z NAM has this system in the NW Caribbean by July 30th (this sunday):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

If this verifies, then the system may be into the Central Gulf by the 31st/1st, and the western Gulf by the 2nd/3rd. Considering I will be driving along the northern Gulf on the 31st and 1st, I will have to watch this one closely!

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

Looks like this wave has a face with it.

[cheezyWXguy]

it doesnt look happy

[Grease Monkey]

It looks like it has a long beard too.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This thing is definitely looking better right now. Wonder what the 5:30am TWO will say.

[ts_kakolina]

Very impressive, at least for us in Puerto Rico. Looks like we have a stormy night ahead of us.

[LaPlaceFF]

Ya'll be careful over there our fellow P.R. s2k'ers. Let us know how ya'll fared.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This looks to be a very strong tropical wave...With a MLC at near 21 north/68 west. Strong shear is pulling all the convection to the eastern side of the tropical wave. So no development is expected over the southern Part. I would watch the northern side.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...FROM PUERTO
RICO...MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[KatDaddy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

Excerpt:
SUN-MON...GFS HAS BACKED OFF PREVIOUS SCENARIO OF TROPICAL WAVE
REACHING CWA SUNDAY AND NOW IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH ECMWF/UKMET IN
KEEPING RIDGE INTACT AND MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF REGION.