Wave in Central Caribbean
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- Extremeweatherguy
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actually, most of the Caribbean is filled with dotted lines, meaning the shear is going to be decreasing.boca wrote:HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Shear seems to be decreasing ahead of it so scratch out what i said earlier. Maybe a weak TS from this but that's it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
according to the shear map shear will be increasing in front of it by the solid lines ,but over Florida shear is decreasing by the dotted lines.
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- bvigal
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boca wrote:Looks like the wave and the ULL are moving west at roughly the same speed.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
It does look possible from wv loop. But that wave was to 23N. Couldn't that just be wave convection as it crosses under?
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- SouthFloridawx
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:actually, most of the Caribbean is filled with dotted lines, meaning the shear is going to be decreasing.boca wrote:HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Shear seems to be decreasing ahead of it so scratch out what i said earlier. Maybe a weak TS from this but that's it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
according to the shear map shear will be increasing in front of it by the solid lines ,but over Florida shear is decreasing by the dotted lines.
No offense you to you Extremeweatherguy, I always enjoy reading your posts but, if you look at the map towards the bottom you will see that it says Tendency over the last 24 hours. Not what is expected to happen. If you want a good example of upper level shear you want to compare,
Upper Level Wind Map to the Initialization of the 12Z GFS coming up soon. If GFS and upper level analysis match up well then GFS will give you a better indication of what the Upper Level Winds will do. This is all if this and if that though.
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Trying to get a solid grasp on wind shear drives me crazy. I've reviewed three maps on wind shear this morning, and from what i can gather is (if/when) this wave approaches Florida and the GOM the shear should not be an inhibiting factor. Now having said that tomorrow the same three maps may say a totally different thing.
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perk wrote:Trying to get a solid grasp on wind shear drives me crazy. I've reviewed three maps on wind shear this morning, and from what i can gather is (if/when) this wave approaches Florida and the GOM the shear should not be an inhibiting factor. Now having said that tomorrow the same three maps may say a totally different thing.
That because these shear analysis maps are not shear forecast maps. They only meant to analyize the what the amount is shear there is a the present time. You see the shear tendency map, for decreasing or increasing shear but that's based on only on the previous analysis' done in the 24 hours before the present one. Shear analyisis maps are done by CIMSS every three hours UTC time.
In other words, what you are shear you see now based on these maps is not necessarily what it will be in five days.
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My untrained eye sees a LLC just north of PR.
Winds are coming around to out of the NW at San Juan.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sjnp4
Winds are coming around to out of the NW at San Juan.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sjnp4
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- AJC3
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Stormavoider wrote:My untrained eye sees a LLC just north of PR.
Winds are coming around to out of the NW at San Juan.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sjnp4
From the movement of the CU lines, there's nothing resembling a LLC. Pretty stout E-SE flow in the area.
If anything, the light NW winds (~5kt) are more likely oozing in on an outflow boundary associated with convection just north of the island. I'd expect winds to flop back around pretty quickly based on the rapid E to W cloud movement noted on satellite across the US and British VI's and points east.
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AJC3 wrote:Stormavoider wrote:My untrained eye sees a LLC just north of PR.
Winds are coming around to out of the NW at San Juan.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sjnp4
From the movement of the CU lines, there's nothing resembling a LLC. Pretty stout E-SE flow in the area.
If anything, the light NW winds (~5kt) are more likely oozing in on an outflow boundary associated with convection just north of the island. I'd expect winds to flop back around pretty quickly based on the rapid E to W cloud movement noted on satellite across the US and British VI's and points east.
If you look at the frames just prior to that burst of convection, you can see a good spin where the burst is now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
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- AJC3
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Stormavoider wrote:AJC3 wrote:Stormavoider wrote:My untrained eye sees a LLC just north of PR.
Winds are coming around to out of the NW at San Juan.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sjnp4
From the movement of the CU lines, there's nothing resembling a LLC. Pretty stout E-SE flow in the area.
If anything, the light NW winds (~5kt) are more likely oozing in on an outflow boundary associated with convection just north of the island. I'd expect winds to flop back around pretty quickly based on the rapid E to W cloud movement noted on satellite across the US and British VI's and points east.
If you look at the frames just prior to that burst of convection, you can see a good spin where the burst is now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
I'm looking at high-res visible imagery and I think what you're seeing is an artifact of the W-E movement of the convective debris superimposed atop the E-W movement of the CU lines. This is also pretty clear in the San Juan 88D imagery as well. Nothing resembling a LLC in the low cloud or precip elements.
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- x-y-no
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Stormavoider wrote:
If you look at the frames just prior to that burst of convection, you can see a good spin where the burst is now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
I don't see any indication of spin in that area, either on sattelite or on the PR radar.
Strictly an ESE flow.
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- gatorcane
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x-y-no wrote:Stormavoider wrote:
If you look at the frames just prior to that burst of convection, you can see a good spin where the burst is now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
I don't see any indication of spin in that area, either on sattelite or on the PR radar.
Strictly an ESE flow.
Looks like alot of rain and windy conditions for South Florida this weekend as the wave is moving in our general direction....
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I think we can say that most of the wave is now in the Atlantic.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Extremeweatherguy
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according to the surface analysis, it actually extends all the way to nearly South America.HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I think we can say that most of the wave is now in the Atlantic.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif
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- Military Met
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Stormavoider wrote: If you look at the frames just prior to that burst of convection, you can see a good spin where the burst is now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
I went back all the way to sunrise on a high res imagery...a lot higher res than what you are seeing on the SSD floater...and they are every 15 minutes...opposed to every 30 minutes on the floater...
...AND there was no spin whatsoever prior to the development of the deep convection north of PR. The northerly winds in PR were probably a combo of 1) An outlfow boundry and 2) Sea Breeze...perhaps.
There is nothing but straightline ESE flow over this area...and no LLC anywhere....and hasn't been.
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- Aquawind
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The latest from the TBW discussion..
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0
LONG TERM (SAT NGT-THU)...MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGING WEST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OR NORTH FL. THE ECMWF/UKMET MAINTAINS THIS RIDGE
THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS DEVELOPS A WAVE/LOW EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS MON THAT COULD BE EAST OF FL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WHILE THE DGEX MOVES A WAVE ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE SUN OR
EARLY MON AND INTO THE GULF TUE WITH A SECOND WAVE MOVING OVER THE
BAHAMAS WED AND OFFSHORE FL THU. FOR NOW WILL BASE THIS FORECAST
ON THE RIDGE AXIS STAYING OVER OR NORTH OF THE NORTH CWFA WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED RANGE
AFTERNOONS AND ISOLATED IN THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO.
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Air Force Met wrote:Stormavoider wrote: If you look at the frames just prior to that burst of convection, you can see a good spin where the burst is now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
I went back all the way to sunrise on a high res imagery...a lot higher res than what you are seeing on the SSD floater...and they are every 15 minutes...opposed to every 30 minutes on the floater...
...AND there was no spin whatsoever prior to the development of the deep convection north of PR. The northerly winds in PR were probably a combo of 1) An outlfow boundry and 2) Sea Breeze...perhaps.
There is nothing but straightline ESE flow over this area...and no LLC
anywhere....and hasn't been.
Although I agree with the statement, I can see where the confusion might be..Click this link and you will see what appears to be a "turning" north west of PR...
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... A&loop=yes
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