Wave in Central Caribbean

[boca]

Looks like the wave and the ULL are moving west at roughly the same speed.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Shear seems to be decreasing ahead of it so scratch out what i said earlier. Maybe a weak TS from this but that's it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

according to the shear map shear will be increasing in front of it by the solid lines ,but over Florida shear is decreasing by the dotted lines.

actually, most of the Caribbean is filled with dotted lines, meaning the shear is going to be decreasing.

[bvigal]

Looks like the wave and the ULL are moving west at roughly the same speed.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

It does look possible from wv loop. But that wave was to 23N. Couldn't that just be wave convection as it crosses under?

[SouthFloridawx]

Shear seems to be decreasing ahead of it so scratch out what i said earlier. Maybe a weak TS from this but that's it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

according to the shear map shear will be increasing in front of it by the solid lines ,but over Florida shear is decreasing by the dotted lines.

actually, most of the Caribbean is filled with dotted lines, meaning the shear is going to be decreasing.

No offense you to you Extremeweatherguy, I always enjoy reading your posts but, if you look at the map towards the bottom you will see that it says Tendency over the last 24 hours. Not what is expected to happen. If you want a good example of upper level shear you want to compare,

Upper Level Wind Map to the Initialization of the 12Z GFS coming up soon. If GFS and upper level analysis match up well then GFS will give you a better indication of what the Upper Level Winds will do. This is all if this and if that though.

[perk]

Trying to get a solid grasp on wind shear drives me crazy. I've reviewed three maps on wind shear this morning, and from what i can gather is (if/when) this wave approaches Florida and the GOM the shear should not be an inhibiting factor. Now having said that tomorrow the same three maps may say a totally different thing.

[Thunder44]

Trying to get a solid grasp on wind shear drives me crazy. I've reviewed three maps on wind shear this morning, and from what i can gather is (if/when) this wave approaches Florida and the GOM the shear should not be an inhibiting factor. Now having said that tomorrow the same three maps may say a totally different thing.

That because these shear analysis maps are not shear forecast maps. They only meant to analyize the what the amount is shear there is a the present time. You see the shear tendency map, for decreasing or increasing shear but that's based on only on the previous analysis' done in the 24 hours before the present one. Shear analyisis maps are done by CIMSS every three hours UTC time.

In other words, what you are shear you see now based on these maps is not necessarily what it will be in five days.

[MortisFL]

With that ULL in place, the wave is gonna struggle to develop.

[Stormavoider]

My untrained eye sees a LLC just north of PR.

Winds are coming around to out of the NW at San Juan.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sjnp4

[AJC3]

My untrained eye sees a LLC just north of PR.

Winds are coming around to out of the NW at San Juan.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sjnp4

From the movement of the CU lines, there's nothing resembling a LLC. Pretty stout E-SE flow in the area.

If anything, the light NW winds (~5kt) are more likely oozing in on an outflow boundary associated with convection just north of the island. I'd expect winds to flop back around pretty quickly based on the rapid E to W cloud movement noted on satellite across the US and British VI's and points east.

[Stormavoider]

My untrained eye sees a LLC just north of PR.

Winds are coming around to out of the NW at San Juan.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sjnp4

From the movement of the CU lines, there's nothing resembling a LLC. Pretty stout E-SE flow in the area.

If anything, the light NW winds (~5kt) are more likely oozing in on an outflow boundary associated with convection just north of the island. I'd expect winds to flop back around pretty quickly based on the rapid E to W cloud movement noted on satellite across the US and British VI's and points east.

If you look at the frames just prior to that burst of convection, you can see a good spin where the burst is now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[AJC3]

My untrained eye sees a LLC just north of PR.

Winds are coming around to out of the NW at San Juan.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sjnp4

From the movement of the CU lines, there's nothing resembling a LLC. Pretty stout E-SE flow in the area.

If anything, the light NW winds (~5kt) are more likely oozing in on an outflow boundary associated with convection just north of the island. I'd expect winds to flop back around pretty quickly based on the rapid E to W cloud movement noted on satellite across the US and British VI's and points east.

If you look at the frames just prior to that burst of convection, you can see a good spin where the burst is now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I'm looking at high-res visible imagery and I think what you're seeing is an artifact of the W-E movement of the convective debris superimposed atop the E-W movement of the CU lines. This is also pretty clear in the San Juan 88D imagery as well. Nothing resembling a LLC in the low cloud or precip elements.

[x-y-no]

If you look at the frames just prior to that burst of convection, you can see a good spin where the burst is now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I don't see any indication of spin in that area, either on sattelite or on the PR radar.

Strictly an ESE flow.

[gatorcane]

If you look at the frames just prior to that burst of convection, you can see a good spin where the burst is now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I don't see any indication of spin in that area, either on sattelite or on the PR radar.

Strictly an ESE flow.

Looks like alot of rain and windy conditions for South Florida this weekend as the wave is moving in our general direction....

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think we can say that most of the wave is now in the Atlantic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think we can say that most of the wave is now in the Atlantic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

according to the surface analysis, it actually extends all the way to nearly South America.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

[sponger]

Is it to late to start a "this season is over thread"? Been a real snoozer up until now! I guess that is a good thing but give us something!

[Brent]

Is it to late to start a "this season is over thread"? Been a real snoozer up until now! I guess that is a good thing but give us something!

Actually, it hasn't. 2 named storms by July 27th is a little above normal.

[Air Force Met]

If you look at the frames just prior to that burst of convection, you can see a good spin where the burst is now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I went back all the way to sunrise on a high res imagery...a lot higher res than what you are seeing on the SSD floater...and they are every 15 minutes...opposed to every 30 minutes on the floater...

...AND there was no spin whatsoever prior to the development of the deep convection north of PR. The northerly winds in PR were probably a combo of 1) An outlfow boundry and 2) Sea Breeze...perhaps.

There is nothing but straightline ESE flow over this area...and no LLC anywhere....and hasn't been.

[Aquawind]

The latest from the TBW discussion..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

LONG TERM (SAT NGT-THU)...MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGING WEST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OR NORTH FL. THE ECMWF/UKMET MAINTAINS THIS RIDGE
THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS DEVELOPS A WAVE/LOW EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS MON THAT COULD BE EAST OF FL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WHILE THE DGEX MOVES A WAVE ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE SUN OR
EARLY MON AND INTO THE GULF TUE WITH A SECOND WAVE MOVING OVER THE
BAHAMAS WED AND OFFSHORE FL THU. FOR NOW WILL BASE THIS FORECAST
ON THE RIDGE AXIS STAYING OVER OR NORTH OF THE NORTH CWFA WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED RANGE
AFTERNOONS AND ISOLATED IN THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO.

[hial2]

If you look at the frames just prior to that burst of convection, you can see a good spin where the burst is now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I went back all the way to sunrise on a high res imagery...a lot higher res than what you are seeing on the SSD floater...and they are every 15 minutes...opposed to every 30 minutes on the floater...

...AND there was no spin whatsoever prior to the development of the deep convection north of PR. The northerly winds in PR were probably a combo of 1) An outlfow boundry and 2) Sea Breeze...perhaps.

There is nothing but straightline ESE flow over this area...and no LLC
anywhere....and hasn't been.

Although I agree with the statement, I can see where the confusion might be..Click this link and you will see what appears to be a "turning" north west of PR...


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... A&loop=yes