Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

#361 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 8:54 am

It is really hanging on to it's top's. Not being blown away. You can see it deeping with each frame.

Dereck you may see your 1% turn to 100% :wink:

Extremeweatherguy · #362 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:03 am

Over the next few days I think this is the most likely area to develop into a TD. I wonder what the planes will find today.

Josephine96 · #363 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:14 am

I think the reason it's not a TD yet may be because they can't send the plane out till it gets close enough

#364 Postby **seaswing** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:16 am

Hey John..... where's Christy? I haven't seen her post in awhile.

WindRunner · #365 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:18 am

LLC is evident this morning, and the convection is still being blown a little bit off of the center, but it is persistent. I still don't think this deserves recon at this point, but I guess we'll see in the next couple of hours if that will happen or not.

#366 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:20 am

storms in NC wrote:It is really hanging on to it's top's. Not being blown away. You can see it deeping with each frame.

Dereck you may see your 1% turn to 100%

I disagree with that assessment. They are being blown away to the south. The convection is being sustained but the shear is taking all the latent heat release to the south. It has 25-30 knots at 250-200 mb taking all the energy to the south.

Josephine96 · #367 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:20 am

Haven't heard from Christy in a while either :wink:

#368 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:21 am

Josephine96 wrote:I think the reason it's not a TD yet may be because they can't send the plane out till it gets close enough

The reason it's not a TD yet is because there is no LLC.

Extremeweatherguy · #369 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:23 am

Air Force Met wrote:
storms in NC wrote:It is really hanging on to it's top's. Not being blown away. You can see it deeping with each frame.

Dereck you may see your 1% turn to 100%

I disagree with that assessment. They are being blown away to the south. The convection is being sustained but the shear is taking all the latent heat release to the south. It has 25-30 knots at 250-200 mb taking all the energy to the south.

You've got to admit this looks a bit like Alberto when it was developing though. I think this has a better chance than it did yesterday.

Kennethb · #370 Postby **Kennethb** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:23 am

You can't ignore a persistant area of tropical energy like this.

#371 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:23 am

WindRunner wrote:

LLC is evident this morning, and the convection is still being blown a little bit off of the center, but it is persistent. I still don't think this deserves recon at this point, but I guess we'll see in the next couple of hours if that will happen or not.

There is no LLC. If you follow the individual cloud elements...you will see that it has a storm-relative circulation...but not ground relative. The around south of the vorticity center is at best an area of light and variable winds. There are no eastward moving clouds.

Scorpion · #372 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:25 am

Didn't Alberto develop in higher shear?

Extremeweatherguy · #373 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:25 am

looks like a MLC to me. It could easily become a LLC though.

Thunder44 · #374 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:25 am

Inflow is still lacking on the north side it seems, so it's not developing rapidly and it may not develop today. But since the plane is already at St. Croix, they may send it anyway just to check it out. From TPC's position, they don't want this system to catch them off guard when it's just a day or so from the islands.

'CaneFreak · #375 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:26 am

Air Force Met wrote:
Josephine96 wrote:I think the reason it's not a TD yet may be because they can't send the plane out till it gets close enough

The reason it's not a TD yet is because there is no LLC.

I am going to have to disagree with you there Air Force Met...every 925 mb vorticity map I have looked at shows a well defined LLC, it may not be quite at the surface, but there is a circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere...if I am correct? 925mb = 2500ft ....which is pretty darn close to the surface....

#376 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:27 am

Kennethb wrote:You can't ignore a persistant area of tropical energy like this.

Nobody is ignoring it...just being honest. It looks better than it did yesterday...but it is still an open wave and is getting sheared as it moves through VERY dry air.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

Derek Ortt · #377 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:29 am

925mb does not equate to the surface.

Of course there is vorticity there; just not a closed circulation

'CaneFreak · #378 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:29 am

However, it does need to fire some convection NEAR THE CENTER... and yes it is getting sheared 25-30 knots out of the northeast around the back side of the ULL east of Florida...but I think it still has a chance down the road north of the Carribean islands in the Bahamas...

x-y-no · #379 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:33 am

I can't argue with either Derek or AFM's reasoning. But this feature has hung in there through bad environmental conditions for a couple of days now, so I'm still inclined to expect that to continue and for it to gradually develop.

That said, there's plenty against this thing still - the greater antilles are looming ahead, as is that ULL over the Bahamas.

'CaneFreak · #380 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 9:33 am

What is the technical definition of an LLC? I have seen winds blow from SE to NE to NW to W to SW....? I am very interested...

Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

Who is online