Tropical Depression 3=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Tropical Depression 3=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:46 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

First advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:21 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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#2 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:47 pm

:woo:
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#3 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:48 pm

:D Yes Finally!!
Last edited by Cyclenall on Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#4 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:48 pm

Wahoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!
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#5 Postby Beam » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:49 pm

Hm. A CV storm (sorta) in late July. Don't see that every day.

Anyway, nice to finally have a serious player.
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:49 pm

I hope it can intensify to Chris.
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#7 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:50 pm

me too...it seems worthy of my name :cheesy:
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#8 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:50 pm

YAYAYAYAYYAYAY!!!!!
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#9 Postby ronjon » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:50 pm

Where are all the naysayers now? And you know who I mean.... :lol:
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:51 pm

HURAKAN wrote:I hope it can intensify to Chris.


But not before it passes the longitud of the Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico. :)
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#11 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:52 pm

Where are all the naysayers now? And you know who I mean....


I don't believe there were any. "unlikely" to develop doesn't mean "impossible"

And I don't believe this will attain anything beyond TS status, if it even makes it that far.

This is NOT a CV system as it is well west of 40 W.
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#12 Postby storms in NC » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:52 pm

Today is my daughter birthday she is 24 and lives in south west fl. Her name is chris. GOD HELP US ALL
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:53 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE (AL032006) ON 20060801 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060801 0000 060801 1200 060802 0000 060802 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 58.9W 16.2N 61.0W 16.2N 63.3W 16.4N 65.7W
BAMM 16.4N 58.9W 16.8N 61.0W 17.4N 63.2W 18.0N 65.2W
A98E 16.4N 58.9W 17.4N 61.5W 18.3N 63.9W 19.4N 66.1W
LBAR 16.4N 58.9W 17.2N 61.3W 18.3N 63.6W 19.1N 65.9W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 38KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060803 0000 060804 0000 060805 0000 060806 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.7N 68.0W 17.0N 72.2W 17.0N 76.1W 17.2N 80.3W
BAMM 18.6N 67.0W 19.4N 70.3W 19.7N 73.6W 20.3N 76.9W
A98E 20.3N 68.4W 22.5N 72.9W 24.4N 76.9W 26.1N 80.2W
LBAR 19.8N 68.0W 20.9N 71.7W 21.9N 74.9W 23.8N 78.2W
SHIP 41KTS 44KTS 46KTS 51KTS
DSHP 38KTS 34KTS 33KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 58.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.3N LONM12 = 56.5W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 53.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00z BAM models for TD3.
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:I hope it can intensify to Chris.


But not before it passes the longitud of the Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico. :)


I thought about that. Nevertheless, at this point I think TD 3 will do the same damage no matter if it remains a TD or if it becomes Chris. We know that it will probably be a weak Chris since the environment isn't really favorable for intensification.
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#15 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:56 pm

wow. I can't believe this thing FINALLY came togehter. Can't wait to see the 11pm track and discussion. I want to know what the NHC thinks will happen with this.
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#16 Postby rockyman » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:57 pm

Image
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#17 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:57 pm

New % chance of TD3 becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 75%
Hurricane: Unknown%
Major Hurricane: Unknown %
Category 4 Hurricane: Unknown %
Category 5 Hurricane: Unknown %
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#18 Postby caribepr » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:I hope it can intensify to Chris.


But not before it passes the longitud of the Leewards,VI and Puerto Rico. :)


On the northeast side please....or a south slider...or...no...I am not seeing a fizzle 8-)
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#19 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:58 pm

i dont like any of the non-green models
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 31, 2006 7:59 pm

My gas generator is ready. Everyone in the list can pass now!!!
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